Rt+1 - Pickup?

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jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Rt+1 - Pickup?

Unread post by jblowery » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:50 pm

I had this come up the other day. I passed but wondering what others think because I rarely do that with Rt+1 as the dealer unless the score is 8-8 or 9-8. I'm the dealer. Upcard is (Card_9-H). Score is 4-4 and this is Karman Euchre (with the "going under" option.

I'm holding (Card_J-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_Q-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-S)

Pass or pickup? My thinking is that I stand a great chance of getting euchered. Meanwhile, our opponent is maxed out at 1 pt and if my partner calls something there is a low chance that we'll get euchered since I'm almost guaranteed 1 trick no matter what he/she calls.

Position 1 did end up calling and got 1 pt. Didn't track what would have happened had I picked up.



Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:43 pm

That euchre site is frustrating. Normally for me R+1 is auto pick up. Unless your trying to set someone who calls light in first seat. Or your at 8-8, 9-8 and your competent partner didn't order. Probably pass then. With that said you have to take into consideration the players on that site and the go under. Depending on a these factors and score as well. Me personally I'm picking up at 4-4.


Tbolt65
Edward

Richardb02
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Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:00 pm

jblowery wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:50 pm
I had this come up the other day. I passed but wondering what others think because I rarely do that with Rt+1 as the dealer unless the score is 8-8 or 9-8. I'm the dealer. Upcard is (Card_9-H). Score is 4-4 and this is Karman Euchre (with the "going under" option.

I'm holding (Card_J-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_Q-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-S)

Pass or pickup?
Thank you for your input Tbolt. We haven’t seen you for a while. We are glad that you have returned.

jblowery, my short answer aligns perfectly with our top-5 poster, Tbolt. I order.
Here is my BPS approach with additional details:
1.00 R1S4
1.00 Jh
0.25 9h
0.25 R+1
0.25 1 void
2.75 vs. 2.50 minimum, so I order
I even suggest that BPS 090520 suggests that 2.75 points indicates a probability of taking a point 71% of the time! At 2.50 the probability is 65%.
Let’s use 71% to determine a simplified EV (Estimated Value) of ordering:
71% x 1 point - 29% x-2 points
+.71- .58 = +.13 points net advantage, on average
That means that despite being euchred 29% of the time, I gain +0.13 point by ordering this hand. I come out ahead! So with no further analysis and for players up to a casual player level, it is best to order.
(A more sophisticated EV would account for a 10-20% probability of taking 4 points, which would create an even higher EV)
jblowery adds an additional level of analysis:
He has Next and Reverse Next in both suits blocked.
That is worthy of consideration.
-.25 point is my adjustment because you have all suits blocked.
2.50 is the net BPS value, it is still meets the 2.50 minimum, the break even or edge hand, so I still order, or auto-order as Tbolt stated. The adjustment for the defensive advantage of passing does not justify passing.
Tbolt raises another factor worthy of consideration! He may pass if he has strong partner that should have ordered if he had any hand that was worthy of ordering. I agree. If Tbolt, an advanced player, was in S2 and I was in S4, and we were playing average/ casual level players or weaker, I would adjust my BPS -.75 points, the maximum advanced-adjustment that I employ. Tbolt had a reason to pass! The net BPS is now 2.00. I would pass.
Since it has been a while since Tbolt has posted, let me add that BPS is a Bidding Point System, for players up to Casual and even Casual-Plus players. BPS becomes a Bidding Point STRATEGY for players at a higher level, like Tbolt, Wes, Dlan and others. They are adding less obvious factors to the basic BPS (see post titled BPS 090520 for details), than 95% of Euchre players. Players of that caliber can simply adjust the basic BPS by -.25, -.50 or even -.75 points to add “player considerations” (and other factors, based on their personal skills) to reflect the overall value of the hand, not just the “offensive power” that is the limit of the basic BPS 090520.
OE members can enjoy playing with strong players by joining us Monday nights at 850 PM ET. Simply post on the weekly sign in section and we will help you. The purpose of the Monday night games is to improve the skills of OE players. There is no condemnation of your play.

jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:36 pm

So this is an automatic pass for u in round 2 from seats 1, 2, or 3 but a pickup from s4?

Richardb02
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Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:52 am

jblowery wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:36 pm
So this is an automatic pass for u in round 2 from seats 1, 2, or 3 but a pickup from s4?
Sorry, I don’t understand your question.

jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:37 am

(Card_J-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-H)
Last edited by jblowery on Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

jblowery
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:39 am

U wouldn't call anything from seats 1,2, or 3 with this hand above after dealer passes. Having both a red and black jack and being 4 suited

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:59 pm

Down (Card_9-H)
S1 (Card_J-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-H)
0.75 R2S1
0.50 R2S1 Next
0.75 Jh
0.25 Td
0.25 L+1
0.25 1 Void
2.75 >2.50, so I would consider ordering but
-.25 Defensive adjustment because S1 stops 4 points in 3 remaining suits
2.50 net BPS, so I would order R2S1*

1.25 R2S2
0.75 Js
0.25 Tc
0.25 L+1
0.25 1 void
2.75 >2.50, so I would consider ordering but
-.25 Defensive adjustment because S2 stops 4 points in 3 remaining suits
2.50 net BPS, so I would order R2S2*

0.00 R2S3
0.25 R2S3 Next
0.75 Jh
0.25 Td
0.25 L+1
0.25 1 Void
1.75 <2.50, so I definitely pass R2S3

*2.50 is the “Edge Hand”, it is a break even play. I expect experienced players to have “reasonable differences” on Edge hands. That is why I suggest that experienced players adjust based on their personal experience -.25, -.50 or even .75 if they “see” other factors, based on experience or even “gut instinct”. Even a single factor worth -.25 BPS, justifies passing.

From R2S1, I have additional factors, that I have analyzed from actual game experience. L+1 being worth 0.25 is significantly weaker that R+1. So I “want” to de-rate this hand -.25 and pass. But I look at additional factors. The next factor is what do I lead and how do I play this hand? Leading the Jh is uncomfortable, even though it has merit! There is an above the average card distribution probability that a Jh will be boss. The Jd is more likely in your partner’s hand or the kitty, since opponents passed. For this discussion let’s look for an alternative lead. We have eliminated leading trump and we don’t want to lead the turned down suit. That leaves the Js and Tc. Since I am playing from weakness, I choose the Tc, the weaker of the 2 choices. My goal is to get last play on the 2nd lead. I used to “play it safe” and pass until I played Monday Night OE Euchre. The stronger players often lead low. They have decided it is the most profitable lead! So I have learned to lead low and order this R2S1 2.50 hand. There is a larger lesson in this discussion. After all of the analysis, I have returned to BPS giving me a reasonable direction to order without all of the analysis. I suggest that you avoid paralysis by analysis until you are playing at a commensurate level. Making reasonable decisions is my goal. A speedy decision also keeps your fellow players happier! That has merit too.

From R2S2 you can have the same discussion. Again I find that after all of the analysis, going with BPS is most profitable at my Casual Plus level of play. I would order.

S3 is simply the weakest seat for ordering. BPS reflects this well understood Euchre truth with the 1.75 BPS. So pass.

I hope that I have addressed your question.

jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:55 pm

I'm talking high level here. Thats all I care about. I don't see how you order in round 2 from any position when you have everything blocked, roughly equal strength in every suit, and no aces.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:36 am

I always pick up R+1+nothing else at any score (including up 9-8, 8-8) except when I block all suits. So in your case I would pass also.

The one exception: At 9-9, with a non-expert partner I will pick up R+1+nothing even if I block all suits.

The mindf**k spot is when it's 9-9, you have R+1+nothing, you block all suits, and your partner is an expert and passes in the 2 seat. A 2 seat expert will never pass 2 trump in this spot and they're calling with weak holdings like 2 off aces + no trump or R+0+nothing. So this means when an expert passes in this spot their range is super weak and unlikely to help much. I suspect it's probably best to pass in this case. With all suits blocked you may have a better chance euchreing a S1 order than making it yourself.

If I don't have all suits blocked I call at 9-9 even with an expert P. Their range is super weak but you can always get lucky if the cards fall right.

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:30 am

Good discussion!

Down (Card_9-H)
S1 (Card_J-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-H)

Let’s talk high level but let me start with a sports metaphor. It should be a baseball metaphor, since my Tampa Bay Rays won game 4 of the World Series so dramatically last night. However, Wes is more of a football fan.

I have addressed the offensive power of the R2S1 hand. BPS Basic measures offensive power. The offensive power is 2.75 from my perspective as the Offensive Coordinator.

On the defensive side, I assign a -.25 value to blocking all suits. That is the minimum increment and the minimum adjustment. If I had a “Euchre Hand”, I would adjust -.75, my maximum adjustment. If defensive benefits are in between this scenarios, I would adjust -.50. The defensive power de-rates the offensive power by -.25 from my perspective as the Defensive Coordinator.

The Head Coach has to make the call. Coach doesn’t have time for deep analysis. He has to make a decision without all these details. He considers the offensive side as an opportunity to make a field goal. He considers the defensive side as limiting the opponents to a field goal. So plus a little on the offensive side and minus a little on the defensive side. Advantage goes to the offensive side.

IMO, of course.

Let’s look at EV’s.
Ordering 1x71%-2x29%= .71-.58=+.13 Estimated Value of ordering
Passing. There is a great amount of conjecture on percentages for this EV!
When you disagree with my percentages, provide yours and let’s compare.
From S1, I will assume opponents order 60% of the time with 80% success.
I will assume S3 orders 30% of the time with the 80% success.
The remaining 10% of the time everyone passes.
-60%x(1x80%-2x20%)+30%x(1x80%-2x20%)=
-60%x(.8-.4)+30%x(.8-.4)=-.6x.4+.3x.4= -.24+.12=
-.12, logically suggesting that by giving up your offensive order, you will have a negative EV.

So, I stick to my original analysis. I have no problem with anyone passing in this scenario. It is definitely reasonable!


Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:37 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:39 am
U wouldn't call anything from seats 1,2, or 3 with this hand above after dealer passes. Having both a red and black jack and being 4 suited
Yep, I pass in all spots except when my opponents have 9, then I'm calling Next from S1 and clubs from S2.

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:22 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:37 pm
jblowery wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:39 am
U wouldn't call anything from seats 1,2, or 3 with this hand above after dealer passes. Having both a red and black jack and being 4 suited
Yep, I pass in all spots except when my opponents have 9, then I'm calling Next from S1 and clubs from S2.
Very reasonable conclusions.

Down here in Florida, we favor the SEC and I’m particular towards UF as a UF Dad times 2. Offense rules in the SEC! So I am ordering!

I enjoyed sharing the football metaphor. Did anyone else?

BTW, the Bucs are beating Las Vegas 14-10 as I type.


Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:26 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:59 pm
Down (Card_9-H)
S1 (Card_J-H) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-H)

The next factor is what do I lead and how do I play this hand? Leading the Jh is uncomfortable, even though it has merit! There is an above the average card distribution probability that a Jh will be boss. The Jd is more likely in your partner’s hand or the kitty, since opponents passed. For this discussion let’s look for an alternative lead. We have eliminated leading trump and we don’t want to lead the turned down suit. That leaves the Js and Tc. Since I am playing from weakness, I choose the Tc, the weaker of the 2 choices. My goal is to get last play on the 2nd lead. I used to “play it safe” and pass until I played Monday Night OE Euchre. The stronger players often lead low. They have decided it is the most profitable lead! So I have learned to lead low and order this R2S1 2.50 hand.
If I did call Next (diamonds) I would lead the Td out of this configuration due to the fact that I have no voids. With no voids the only time I don't lead trump in this spot is if I have R+1 or L+Ace of trump (I wouldn't want to lead trump of the latter just in case my partner is only holding the Right). If we had a void, then I'm leading a garbage card. In that case, I choose between the Js or the Tc. It doesn't make much of a difference but out of habit I always choose the higher card given the fact that the higher the card the more likely it could be boss and draw out trump however slim that "more likely" may be.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:33 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:22 pm
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:37 pm
jblowery wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:39 am
U wouldn't call anything from seats 1,2, or 3 with this hand above after dealer passes. Having both a red and black jack and being 4 suited
Yep, I pass in all spots except when my opponents have 9, then I'm calling Next from S1 and clubs from S2.
Very reasonable conclusions.

Down here in Florida, we favor the SEC and I’m particular towards UF as a UF Dad times 2. Offense rules in the SEC! So I am ordering!

I enjoyed sharing the football metaphor. Did anyone else?

BTW, the Bucs are beating Las Vegas 14-10 as I type.

I would say the only reason to call Next is for defensive purposes (except when our opponent's are at 9, then obviously we're just hoping to hit our P and win the game). I.E. if we don't block reverse Next then tend to call Next to protect our team from enemy loners. Calling Next when we have a super marginal, no voids, no off aces, stopper hand doesn't really make sense. We already have a good defensive hand. There's no reason to force the issue and risk a euchre. Theoretically speaking, the costliest euchres are the ones we incur when we have all suits blocked. We need stronger hands to adjust for that factor.

Another way of saying this: S1's job is to manage the game playing strong defense for his team. Never make marginal Next calls when we have reverse Next blocked, I.E. when we already have good defense. It defeats the purpose. Of course everything I said needs to be proven mathematically. Maybe someday we'll have that mythical simulator.

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