Decided to sit in the bushes as dealer...

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XaviRonaldo
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Decided to sit in the bushes as dealer...

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:52 pm

My last game leading 7-5 I turned up the (Card_J-S) holding...

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H)

Having all 3 loners covered and a good chance of a euchre in any suit I turned the (Card_J-S) down.

1st seat made the obligatory next call and we got the euchre.

I know it was a bad decision to turn it down knowing 1 point for them puts them in loner range and 2 points wouldn't make much difference. I just didn't like how quickly my partner passed.

How bad a play do you think that was on a scale of 1-10?



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:20 pm

My last game leading 7-5 I turned up the (Card_J-S) holding...

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H)
You passed for the right reasons but unfortunately it is impossible to know if passing has a greater EV than calling until we actually put this kind've spot to the test running some kind of simulation.

I do think that some euchre hands like this are so obviously a pass that we don't actually need to "put it to the test" to "know" passing is the best play. For example, question 18 from my Advanced Euchre Quiz:

18) The score is 6-6. You are the dealer.

The upcard is (Card_J-D)

You have (Card_A-H), (Card_J-H), (Card_K-C), (Card_J-C), (Card_J-S)

Not only do we have the deck completely crushed if we pass with two guaranteed tricks in every suit, but we even have a powerful club loner should the action get back to us--a real possibility since we have all the cards.

I think your hand is more closer to the edge but I think it's a defensible pass.

Here's a couple more examples of hands I'll pass:

1) I'm the dealer and the upcard is the (Card_9-S) and I have:

(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-H)

If we pick up we have R+9+a doubleton next Ace, a marginal hand but a must order under most circumstances, but this hand is the exception in my opinion. With all suits covered and approximately 2 tricks in every suit I think our hand has more power passing than calling especially against aggressive players who call Next weak.

2) I'm the dealer and the upcard is the (Card_9-C)

(Card_J-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-H)

If we order up we have a marginal 3 suited, no off ace, L+2 hand. If we pass we have another euchre hand, I.E. all suits covered with approx 2 tricks in any suit, and we have a Next call in real trouble. I strongly suspect passing is the play here in most circumstances.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:08 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:20 pm
By XaviRonaldo:
My last game leading 7-5 I turned up the (Card_J-S) holding...

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H)
Great hands for some BPS-Advanced Concepts

Up card (Card_J-S)
S4 (Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H)
4.00 Total BPS points (See BPS Basic 090520)

This is a very strong hand. I estimate your probability of taking a point is over 95%.
3.75 Total BPS points, IMO, has a 95% opportunity of taking 3 tricks
2.50 Total BPS points, based on experience, has a 65%, break even, opportunity.

This hand definitely deserves additional analysis because:
The Jacks and card distribution have “euchre hand”power in the 3 remaining suits.

For “Advanced” analysis, I limit the adjustment to 0.75 points.
So, I would adjust the BPS to 3.25 points, to account for possible 2 point euchres.
This is 0.75 points greater than 2.50, minimum and I suggest ordering.
Why give up a point, if you run into a 3 or 4 trump Next?
Note: I would play more conservatively because of the 7-5 lead.

Now let’s look at:
Question 18 from Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz:

18) The score is 6-6. You are the dealer.

The upcard is (Card_J-D)

You have (Card_A-H), (Card_J-H), (Card_K-C), (Card_J-C), (Card_J-S)
4.00 Total BPS. Note, why not consider a Loner?
-.75 Maximum adjustment for a “euchre hand”
3.25 Adjusted BPS, I would order at this neutral score.

I would consider a Loner with this hand! 3 trump winners and only an Ac or a protected Qc can stop my Loner. I estimate a 22% to 30% probability of taking 4 points, with a 95% probability of taking at least 1 point. (I have covered these calculations in other posts). I am playing for 4 points.

Wes’ other examples of hands that he would pass:

1) I'm the dealer and the upcard is the (Card_9-S) and I have:

(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-H)

3.00 Total BPS
-.75 Maximum adjustment based on a “euchre hand”
2.25 Adjusted points, <2.50, I would pass.

2) I'm the dealer and the upcard is the (Card_9-C)

(Card_J-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-H)
3.00 Total BPS
-.75 Maximum adjustment, based on a “euchre hand”
2.25 Adjusted points, <2.50, I would pass



Wes and I are in reasonably close agreement in our analyses! I consider our differences as completely reasonable!

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:31 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:08 pm
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:20 pm
By XaviRonaldo:
My last game leading 7-5 I turned up the (Card_J-S) holding...

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H)
Great hands for some BPS-Advanced Concepts

Up card (Card_J-S)
S4 (Card_J-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H)
4.00 Total BPS points (See BPS Basic 090520)

This is a very strong hand. I estimate your probability of taking a point is over 95%.
3.75 Total BPS points, IMO, has a 95% opportunity of taking 3 tricks
2.50 Total BPS points, based on experience, has a 65%, break even, opportunity.

This hand definitely deserves additional analysis because:
The Jacks and card distribution have “euchre hand”power in the 3 remaining suits.

For “Advanced” analysis, I limit the adjustment to 0.75 points.
So, I would adjust the BPS to 3.25 points, to account for possible 2 point euchres.
This is 0.75 points greater than 2.50, minimum and I suggest ordering.
Why give up a point, if you run into a 3 or 4 trump Next?
Note: I would play more conservatively because of the 7-5 lead.

Now let’s look at:
Question 18 from Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz:

18) The score is 6-6. You are the dealer.

The upcard is (Card_J-D)

You have (Card_A-H), (Card_J-H), (Card_K-C), (Card_J-C), (Card_J-S)
4.00 Total BPS. Note, why not consider a Loner?
-.75 Maximum adjustment for a “euchre hand”
3.25 Adjusted BPS, I would order at this neutral score.

I would consider a Loner with this hand! 3 trump winners and only an Ac or a protected Qc can stop my Loner. I estimate a 22% to 30% probability of taking 4 points, with a 95% probability of taking at least 1 point. (I have covered these calculations in other posts). I am playing for 4 points.

Wes’ other examples of hands that he would pass:

1) I'm the dealer and the upcard is the (Card_9-S) and I have:

(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-H)

3.00 Total BPS
-.75 Maximum adjustment based on a “euchre hand”
2.25 Adjusted points, <2.50, I would pass.

2) I'm the dealer and the upcard is the (Card_9-C)

(Card_J-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_Q-H)
3.00 Total BPS
-.75 Maximum adjustment, based on a “euchre hand”
2.25 Adjusted points, <2.50, I would pass



Wes and I are in reasonably close agreement in our analyses! I consider our differences as completely reasonable differences, between skilled Euchre players! IMO, politicians should act as graciously, debating as freedom loving Americans based on our 244 year history, that started with our Declaration of Independence.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:09 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:08 pm
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:20 pm
Now let’s look at:
Question 18 from Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz:

18) The score is 6-6. You are the dealer.

The upcard is (Card_J-D)

You have (Card_A-H), (Card_J-H), (Card_K-C), (Card_J-C), (Card_J-S)
4.00 Total BPS. Note, why not consider a Loner?
-.75 Maximum adjustment for a “euchre hand”
3.25 Adjusted BPS, I would order at this neutral score.

I would consider a Loner with this hand! 3 trump winners and only an Ac or a protected Qc can stop my Loner. I estimate a 22% to 30% probability of taking 4 points, with a 95% probability of taking at least 1 point. (I have covered these calculations in other posts). I am playing for 4 points.
It looks like you misread my hand. If we call we only have 2 trump (both bowers) an off Ace and a suited King. If we had Ace-Jack-Jack in trump and an outside suited King I agree go alone.

Btw I liked your analysis on the OPs hand. I know I would call with his holding vs passing and trapping but I wasn't comfortable saying passing is wrong (and I'm still not without a simulation). But I like how your method lines up with my instinct. My take would be having almost 3 tricks ourselves with both bowers and a doubleton green ace + we're not THAT strong in Next with only only 1 trump, I'd rather just call and go for the point. But I guess who knows without real data. That said I'll use your method as the tie breaker for now.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:57 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:09 pm
Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:08 pm
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:20 pm
Now let’s look at:
Question 18 from Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz:

18) The score is 6-6. You are the dealer.

The upcard is (Card_J-D)

You have (Card_A-H), (Card_J-H), (Card_K-C), (Card_J-C), (Card_J-S)
4.00 Total BPS. Note, why not consider a Loner?
-.75 Maximum adjustment for a “euchre hand”
3.25 Adjusted BPS, I would order at this neutral score.

I would consider a Loner with this hand! 3 trump winners and only an Ac or a protected Qc can stop my Loner. I estimate a 22% to 30% probability of taking 4 points, with a 95% probability of taking at least 1 point. (I have covered these calculations in other posts). I am playing for 4 points.
It looks like you misread my hand. If we call we only have 2 trump (both bowers) an off Ace and a suited King. If we had Ace-Jack-Jack in trump and an outside suited King I agree go alone.
Thank you for pointing out that my Loner suggestion looks weak. You were gracious enough to ascribe it to misreading the hand. Let’s take a look. My first thought is that BPS 090520 overstates posibble loner hands, like this hand:
1.00 R1S4
1.00 Jd
0.75 Jh
0.25 R+1
0.25 L+1
0.50 Ah
0.25 Spade void
4.00 So my total BPS is correct, but there are 2 recent changes to consider:
1. The R1S4 value was raised from 0.50 to 1.00, to correspond with raising the minimum from 2.00 to 2.50. The advantage was that every round and seat combination had a single minimum of 2.50. That simplified the BPS for normal hands. But the changes included added value for having a partner. Obviously, by going alone, you don’t have a partner. So the 4.00 BPS should be reduced by 0.50 to 3.50, which is below the 3.75 minimum for going alone.
2. I am comfortable that R+1 is worth 0.25 point. I am not so comfortable that L+1 is worth 0.25 point. So the value of this hand is now down to 3.25.

So now if I subtract 0.75 points, for the maximum deduction for a euchre hand, we net out at 2.50 points. That is the edge for passing.

Additionally, I think that the #18 hand, is a very rare hand, that is so powerful a euchre hand that an experienced player should exercise an additional adjustment. Having every suit crushed and a potential R2 Loner is definitely worthy of another -.75 adjustment. Now, at 1.75 points I would definitely pass.

I am sure that to most people that this looks like a system that is not a system at all! It has too many what ifs. But this hand is one hand out of 45K. The only other hand that is as powerful would replace the Kc with the Ac. So now there are only 2 hands out of 45K that earn this consideration! Even Wes, playing 10,000 hands a year, will only see this “crusher euchre hand with Loner potential” hand every 2.25 years! The system works on averages. Non-average hands, like euchre hands and loners, need additional analysis. One every 22,500 hands need personal attention.


Btw I liked your analysis on the OPs hand. I know I would call with his holding vs passing and trapping but I wasn't comfortable saying passing is wrong (and I'm still not without a simulation). But I like how your method lines up with my instinct. My take would be having almost 3 tricks ourselves with both bowers and a doubleton green ace + we're not THAT strong in Next with only only 1 trump, I'd rather just call and go for the point. But I guess who knows without real data. That said I'll use your method as the tie breaker for now.
THANK YOU.

RedDuke
Posts: 393
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:56 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:09 pm
Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:08 pm
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:20 pm
Now let’s look at:
Question 18 from Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz:

18) The score is 6-6. You are the dealer.

The upcard is (Card_J-D)

You have (Card_A-H), (Card_J-H), (Card_K-C), (Card_J-C), (Card_J-S)
4.00 Total BPS. Note, why not consider a Loner?
-.75 Maximum adjustment for a “euchre hand”
3.25 Adjusted BPS, I would order at this neutral score.

I would consider a Loner with this hand! 3 trump winners and only an Ac or a protected Qc can stop my Loner. I estimate a 22% to 30% probability of taking 4 points, with a 95% probability of taking at least 1 point. (I have covered these calculations in other posts). I am playing for 4 points.
It looks like you misread my hand. If we call we only have 2 trump (both bowers) an off Ace and a suited King. If we had Ace-Jack-Jack in trump and an outside suited King I agree go alone.

Btw I liked your analysis on the OPs hand. I know I would call with his holding vs passing and trapping but I wasn't comfortable saying passing is wrong (and I'm still not without a simulation). But I like how your method lines up with my instinct. My take would be having almost 3 tricks ourselves with both bowers and a doubleton green ace + we're not THAT strong in Next with only only 1 trump, I'd rather just call and go for the point. But I guess who knows without real data. That said I'll use your method as the tie breaker for now.
This is almost a perfect passing hand. If you pick it up, you have both bowers in trump and the ace of next. The ace of next oftentimes won't walk because that's usually the suit that somebody is going to be void in.

Look at what happens if you pass though. You literally have the two boss cards in no matter what's called. This puts you in a prime position to euchre the opponents if they try a next call. You've pretty much got 3 tricks on a reverse next call too with both bowers and that green ace.

If the bid does come around to you again, call clubs and go alone. You're the dealer so you have last play so unless hearts is led on the first trick and eldest's partner trumps it, you're almost guaranteed to take all five tricks.

The odds that you'll get two points or more by picking up here are fairly slim. You've actually got a much better chance of getting two or four points by passing and either going for the euchre or going for a clubs loner.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:02 pm

Thank you RedDuke and Wes for your spot on analysis of this hand. I am in complete agreement!

Your analysis, motivated me to consider the ramifications of my 090520 changes to BPS Basic. When considering a loner, you must de-rate the hand to compensate for not having a partner. The change is to de-rate by -.50 points from S2 or S4. I currently conclude that no adjustment is needed for S1 or S3.

The 2nd part of the analysis is the value of passing. I describe this hand as a “euchre hand with a R2 Loner.” That is a very rare hand (1 out of 22,500 hands will be a “euchre hand with a R2 Loner”, as I have posted. Systems or even strategies need to be overruled when you encounter these very rare hands.

These very rare hands are where the more experienced RedDuke and Wes actual game experience exceeds the value of a system or strategy.


Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:48 am

A good summary: Pretty much the only time to consider passing from the dealer position with hands like 2 bowers or R+1+an off Ace or 3 trump is when we have a euchre hand, I.E. all suits blocked with approx 2 tricks in every suit. Since not all euchre hands are created equal, there's certainly some grey area up for debate. I think the OP's hand is in that grey area.

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