Jerk Partners?

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RedDuke
Posts: 393
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Jerk Partners?

Unread post by RedDuke » Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:38 pm

Why do some people take this game so seriously?

I was the dealer, holding this:

(Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_J-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_9-D)

Upcard was (Card_A-H) . I picked it up and discarded the (Card_9-D) . Thus, after the call, I had:

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S)

We actually wound up getting euchred because the opponents had all of the remaining trump.

My partner actually goes berserk and starts cussing me out for a bad call. It was a good call, that's a pretty obvious call. Actually, I really should have gone alone with this one. How was I supposed to know that she had a totally dead hand with no trump? Without doing the math, I bet this hand will make at least one point nine times out of ten.

I more can't believe getting cussed out and accused of making a bad call! She saw my hand as we played it out. It's pretty obvious that I made the right call here... we were only euchred because the opponents literally had everything else.



XaviRonaldo
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:42 pm

That's a fairly safe loner call if the opponents aren't bushsitting

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:24 pm

XaviRonaldo wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:42 pm
That's a fairly safe loner call if the opponents aren't bushsitting
Yep. I would recommend always going alone (exceptions ofc at 8 or 9) when we have this configuration R+2+an outside suited ace. Even the worst possible holding from this configuration....

(Card_J-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-D) (Card_9-D)

...should be a lone call.

RedDuke
Posts: 393
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:00 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:24 pm
XaviRonaldo wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:42 pm
That's a fairly safe loner call if the opponents aren't bushsitting
Yep. I would recommend always going alone (exceptions ofc at 8 or 9) when we have this configuration R+2+an outside suited ace. Even the worst possible holding from this configuration....

(Card_J-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-D) (Card_9-D)

...should be a lone call.
You're right. I should have gone alone on this hand. Not sure why I didn't. The only real way I'm going to be euchred here is if the opponents had the exact cards that they did and in that case there's nothing my partner could have done to help. That's usually the case with a loner - if you're euchred, it's unusual that your partner could have actually saved the day.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:37 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:00 am
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:24 pm
XaviRonaldo wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:42 pm
That's a fairly safe loner call if the opponents aren't bushsitting
Yep. I would recommend always going alone (exceptions ofc at 8 or 9) when we have this configuration R+2+an outside suited ace. Even the worst possible holding from this configuration....

(Card_J-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-D) (Card_9-D)

...should be a lone call.
You're right. I should have gone alone on this hand. Not sure why I didn't. The only real way I'm going to be euchred here is if the opponents had the exact cards that they did and in that case there's nothing my partner could have done to help. That's usually the case with a loner - if you're euchred, it's unusual that your partner could have actually saved the day.
This is an excellent sample hand for using BPS 090520 to determine whether to order Alone:
1.00 R1S4
1.00 Jh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.50 3 Trump
0.50 Ad (Black Doubleton Ace)
0.75 2 Voids
4.25 BPS with a partner
-.50 BPS Alone (No help from Partner because you are going Alone. This is a change from BPS <090520 and the current BPS 090520).
3.75 Alone BPS. At 1.25 Pts per trick, you have a 95% probability to take 3 tricks, so an Alone is worth consideration. NOTE: this leaves a 5% probability of getting euchred. This explains what happened to RedDuke in the OP. IMO, you have to stop analyzing at a certain point or you will take too much time to keep your fellow players from complaining. You must accept a 5% euchre rate (1 out of 20 times of getting euchred. Getting euchred is a badge of honor. It does not necessarily indicate a bad order.
***I still have time to analyze whether I should play for 2, instead of 1! I simply count up single cards that can stop a loner (1.00 value), and parlays that can stop a loner (0.25 value)
0.00 Single cards that can stop this loner.
1.00 4 protected trump cards that can stop the alone
0.25 A parlay of an opponent having a Void and a trump
1.25 Card-equivalents, that can stop the loner
The simplified formula is 50% chance ^ Card-equivalent power. But forget the math formula. Simply remember:
2.75 points is the point that going for 4 is roughly equivalent in EV as playing for 2!
1.25 points is < 2.75 points, so I definitely go alone.
FYI information, .50^1.25= 42% opportunity to take 4 points. I will seize that opportunity, to go alone.
FYI more information, a single card blocking a loner actually has a 55% chance of stopping a loner, or a 45% chance of success. This is verified, by many posts by probability savvy posters. .45^1.25= 36.8% opportunity to take 4 points. Go for it, even with the more detailed, but “static” analysis.
IMO, opponents having to make decisions about their discards and plays justify rounding off to a 50% chance of success.
IMO, if there are less than 2.75 points, Or less, I go alone, in general. You should be more aggressive, if you need 4 points, ie down 6-9, 5-8, all the way down to 0-3 and order alone with 3.00 or even 3.25 points.
At an advanced level, BPS means Bidding Point STRATEGY, Instead of Bidding Point System. I keep applying more subtle factors that I can definitely “see” until I reach a time limit and my acumen limit. I even utilize a “gut instinct” adjustment. Sometimes, after playing 1000’s of hands, you recognize a factor, that you simply cannot define.
BTW, as usual I have to agree with Wes.


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