So clearly I'm not productive at work today

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knglenny
Posts: 18
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:25 pm

So clearly I'm not productive at work today

Unread post by knglenny » Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:16 pm

Another game and situation. I'm sure I played this wrong. Score is 2-1 our favor, I'm in seat one.

My hand is

(Card_K-C) (Card_J-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S)

(Card_A-D) just turned down. I order spades. Didn't go alone which was probably my first mistake.

I lead (Card_J-C) and S2 takes it with (Card_J-S) my partner and the dealer wear both empty. S2 comes right back with (Card_A-S) followed by the (Card_A-C). Before they even laid the (Card_A-S) I'm chanting in my head, don't have the ace, don't have the ace. As soon as the (Card_A-S) dropped I just knew the (Card_A-C) was coming next :lol:

Thus completes me getting set with 4 trump in 3 tricks.

What is the play here? Lead (Card_K-S) and hope they throw (Card_J-S)

Lead the (Card_K-C) to give someone else the lead? With 4 trump that seems like a really weak play but I didn't go alone so may as well try to use my partner.

Or is this a **** happens kind of thing that is just going to happen every now and then.

My thinking is I would play it the same way again, I have 4 trump it's unlikely someone is sitting on right+ace even if it was a reverse next call. I know if I'm in seat 2 and someone makes that call and leads a king, I'm throwing my ace as they are probably holding left. If their partner has left I have my right stopper and if my partner has left we have a really good chance of the euchre.

Perhaps I play the trickster and lead the (Card_10-S) which I know is the same value as my (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) but it might have a better chance to coax the right out?



Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:52 pm

You nailed the correct answer, when you said, “Didn’t go alone, which was probably my first mistake.” You played for 2 points, instead of 4 points. You cut your productivity by 50%. You’re fired!! LOL.

Your 2nd mistake, is wasting time analyzing a loser decision. Why? OK, mistakes happen, so analyze, but briefly. Give it the minute amount of time that it deserves. So, play the hand, exactly, as you played it. You played it as if you were going alone. Enough analyzing about how to play the mistake order.

(I realize this sounds harsh, to many readers. It isn’t intended to be harsh. It is intended to drive home, the more important lessons. Please keep reading).

You experienced having an alone order, euchred (even though you didn’t order alone). Feel the pain, let it go, you will feel better, and then make certain, that you made the correct decision. With a clear mind, now you realize, that you failed to make the correct decision, ordering alone, and playing for 4 points! Your rational analysis is that you lost 2 points, because you ordered. That cost you the same 2 points, that ordering had the same -2 point result, as the correct alone order. You didn’t lose anything, didn’t you? Now, you feel even better!

My use of BPS, simplifies the analysis of getting euchred with such a strong hand! BPS does not complicate the analysis, it simplifies the analysis! Your 4.00 BPS hand exceeds a 95% chance of earning at least 1 point. (3.75 points indicates a success rate of 95%). So I can confidently state that you can safely order alone, let alone order, and play for only 2 points!

BPS, at it’s simplest level, analyzes the vast majority of the factors about how to order! (And it is based on OE lessons and analysis from the OE forum). It uses numbers, instead of a vague list of pros and cons! 4.00 BPS has quickly and thoroughly, analyzed LKQT of trump, the value of 4 trump lead by the left, being 2 suited and playing R2S1. Please tell me, what is left, to properly analyze this hand?

You could analyze the hand further, using probabilities and even factorials! But why? Any, “better than casual player”, would order alone (imo).

But for kicks and giggles, let’s analyze further. It took RA of trump and an Ac to win. Simple probability analysis yields: 5/18x4/17x3x3/16=
0.278 (5/18) Times
0.235 (4/17) Times
0.562 (5/16) Equals
0.040 or a 4% possibility of running into the euchre hand.
(Exactly, what a more in depth analysis of a 4.00 BPS hand would yield)
But, using BPS, I do it in real time, with a great degree of confidence! By real time, I mean human competition time.

I am going to sum up and avoid ranting. BPS allows you to exhaust all applicable factors, albeit giving up some Euchre-genius plays, in exchange for confidence, speed and being able to focus on the next hand.

Your precise description of the hand, allowed a complete analysis of all applicable factors. Score was NA, player strengths and weaknesses were NA, and even minor factors (used with BPS-Advanced) were NA. Good job knglenny! Keep posting. Please accept my response, in the manner intended, to improve your, (and other readers’), skills. I don’t have any other motivation.

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