What do you do with hands like this?

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XaviRonaldo
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What do you do with hands like this?

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:56 am

This is just an example hand but it seems everytime I have a hand in 1st seat like...

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-S) (Card_K-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_10-H)

and the upcard is black I get euchred by calling next with one of the opponents holding 3 trump.

Wisdom on the face of it might suggest passing and calling next is sensible in case they will pick it up. But, when you actually think about it by us having both bowers it's no more likely your partner has help in next than your opponents have your kryptonite.

Now I cringe when I get hands like this because if they turn it down I then know that I probably should've ordered it up. My results with such hands probably suggest ordering it up makes sense but that just seems illogical to me.

How do you handle such hands?



Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:08 am

Good question! My understanding about this common situaton, was helped immensely from a post saying, "a Next call is defensive in nature." Wes deserves the credit.

Your OP hand, and Next hands in general, have no protection against orders in Reverse Next. Consequently, the probability of a Loner call, and success, is 3 to 4 times greater, IMO, that a balanced hand. So you order Next, expecting to be euchred 20 to 45% of the time. You accept the euchre, in exchange for defensing against Loners.

It comes down to base guidance, pass with the intention of ordering Next. You make that decision with your R1 decision.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:14 pm

In the hand you showed, lead your 10D. That may setup your king as boss. Don't pull trump. You need your partners help.

If you lose the first two tricks, then trump in, play your last trump, then the king.
And yes, you may get set, but then again maybe not. Very few games are won by passing.

XaviRonaldo
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Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:25 pm

Dlan wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:14 pm
In the hand you showed, lead your 10D. That may setup your king as boss. Don't pull trump. You need your partners help.

If you lose the first two tricks, then trump in, play your last trump, then the king.
And yes, you may get set, but then again maybe not. Very few games are won by passing.
I'm not suggesting passing twice. I'm just wondering if it's better to order up or call next if they turn it down.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:36 pm

I am certain that Don was instructing you how to lead, after you order Next. “In the hand that you showed,” you ordered next, and then have been euchred more often than you expected.

You did not explain, how you lead, after the next call. Most players, lead at least one bower. Don made that assumption, and explained how a more experienced player would play the hand.

Let me expound upon Don’s explanation. You only have 2 certain tricks in this hand and need one trick from your partner. That is true for probably 60% of hands! To quote OE and Don, “you have to give your partner a chance.“ Leading a bower may waste your partner’s only trump. You improve the probability of your partner, taking a trick, by leading a low, non-trump card.

That leaves you choosing between a (Card_10-D) and a (Card_10-H). Leading the (Card_10-D) creates the opportunity to draw out the (Card_A-D) and make your (Card_K-D) the boss diamond. So choose the (Card_10-D). (As a bonus, partner may trump the (Card_10-D) and the probability of partner being void in diamonds, is greater in diamonds, since you have 2 diamonds, in your hand. If partner, takes the 1st trick, you make your point).

You may lose the 1st 2 tricks. Don’t give up. Play a bower and take the 3rd trick. Then play you last bower. Your (Card_K-D) has an excellent opportunity to take the last trick and earn a point.

The last point is that you may still get euchred, but you will win the game, (not necessarily the hand), by ordering more aggressively! Of course, there is a limit as to how aggressively to order. But a simple analysis, proves that you break even if you get euchred 1 out of 3 hands. 2x1 -1x2= 0. I play on sites that track the percentage of “getting euchred” and I am at 20%. Wes has reported 26%. Don has to be close to Wes’ percentage. Our recommendation is that getting euchred is not a losing proposition. In fact, it is part of a strategy to winning Euchre! Your goal has to be play your hand, the best way possible. Getting euchred is virtually irrelevant.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:25 pm

XaviRonaldo wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:25 pm
I'm not suggesting passing twice. I'm just wondering if it's better to order up or call next if they turn it down.
Passing in the first round with the intention of calling Next is vastly superior to calling in the first round. When you call in the first round you give your enemy a trump card and the opportunity to create a void. Those are significant advantages that you're giving the enemy when you don't have to. And when you order in the 1st round you are also forgoing the opportunity to euchre your opponents should you pass and they call, another significant drawback. This is why Seat 1 should virtually never order up in the first round if they have a viable 2nd round hand--the obvious exception being with S1 has a 1st rd loner.
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:34 pm

Dlan wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:14 pm
In the hand you showed, lead your 10D. That may setup your king as boss. Don't pull trump. You need your partners help.

If you lose the first two tricks, then trump in, play your last trump, then the king.
And yes, you may get set, but then again maybe not. Very few games are won by passing.
I used to advocate leading the (Card_10-H) in this spot. The idea was lead your cleanest suit since if your partner has the Ace of that suit it is more likely to walk and if your partner has a void in that suit they are least likely to get overtrumped. It's decent logic but still a very weak hypothesis. I've changed my tune on this spot tho and I give credit to Irishwolf for helping me see this spot in a different way.

I can't remember the dialog but I believe Irishwolf would advocate leading the (Card_10-D) not just to possibly promote your King, but critically, also becuz you now give yourself the chance to throw off and short-suit yourself in hearts later in the hand. Notice if one leads the TH they now have no chance to short-suit themselves later in the hand. I now believe this perk makes leading the TD the best lead in this spot.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:41 pm

XaviRonaldo wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:56 am
Wisdom on the face of it might suggest passing and calling next is sensible in case they will pick it up. But, when you actually think about it by us having both bowers it's no more likely your partner has help in next than your opponents have your kryptonite.

Now I cringe when I get hands like this because if they turn it down I then know that I probably should've ordered it up. My results with such hands probably suggest ordering it up makes sense but that just seems illogical to me.

How do you handle such hands?
You know the right play. You're letting runbad affect your judgment. And you need to stop caring about or fearing getting euchred. It's part of the game. If you call Next here and get euchred so what. You can't pass 2 sure tricks when you don't block reverse next. So if passing is not an option and you call, play the hand well, and get euchred DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE RESULTS. When playing ANY game of chance focus on devoting yourself to the process, I.E. making the best plays possible. Disregard the outcome of any given play. Never allow luck to cloud your judgment.

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:14 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:25 pm
XaviRonaldo wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:25 pm
I'm not suggesting passing twice. I'm just wondering if it's better to order up or call next if they turn it down.
Passing in the first round with the intention of calling Next is vastly superior to calling in the first round. When you call in the first round you give your enemy a trump card and the opportunity to create a void. Those are significant advantages that you're giving the enemy when you don't have to. And when you order in the 1st round you are also forgoing the opportunity to euchre your opponents should you pass and they call, another significant drawback. This is why Seat 1 should virtually never order up in the first round if they have a viable 2nd round hand--the obvious exception being with S1 has a 1st rd loner.
Wes is absolutely correct here.

You have a very viable hand in next. If all of the opponents pass, then you get first pick at trump and you don't give the dealer a trump. Never call in round 1 first seat unless the upcard is your only chance.

jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:49 am

Definitely call Next. No brainer. But don't lead trump. Lead junk (starting w/ one of your low cards) until your partner can get one.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:30 pm

jblowery wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:49 am
Definitely call Next. No brainer. But don't lead trump. Lead junk (starting w/ one of your low cards) until your partner can get one.
You nailed the major concept!

Now you can analyze the lesser concepts. Don (Dlan) gave excellent guidance, as usual, this is his site, play the (Card_10-D) to make your (Card_K-D) boss. Don nailed the next most important factor, from your OP (Opening Post). But if you didn’t call Next this entire discussion is meaningless.

Wes then posted how to play when your first choice is not as strong. It isn’t as important a factor as leading the (Card_10-D) in your OP, but it will occur more frequently IMO. Picture your hand containing (Card_9-D) (Card_10-D) instead of (Card_10-D) (Card_K-D) . Lead the (Card_9-D) to give your partner an opportunity to allow his low trump or (Card_A-D) to take a trick. My explanation to leading the 2 carded suit is that you have strengthened the possibility of partner trumping and retained the possibility of his (Card_A-D) taking the trick. Two opportunities are better than one! Personally, I focus on my partner’s hand taking a trick. You will fall into the trap of over analyzing trying to conjecture on 2 opponents’ hands!


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