Next call: what to lead

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jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Next call: what to lead

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:13 am

(Card_K-S) is turned down. I call clubs in 1st seat holding

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_10-D). What do I lead?

How about if I have
(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H). Different lead?



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:37 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:13 am
(Card_K-S) is turned down. I call clubs in 1st seat holding

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_10-D). What do I lead?

How about if I have
(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H). Different lead?
With an off ace to promote I lead trump in both cases. If desperate or down 9-6/9-7, I would go alone with:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H)

There is some debate about leading under. I.E. leading the Tc instead of the Jc for fear that leading the Right could take out your P's lone Left. Yes that will happen sometimes when you lead the Right--no strategy is perfect--but I still suspect leading the Right is best. The debate for leading under becomes strongest from this configuration if we change your hand slightly to this:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-D)

The idea being now if you lead the Tc and things don't work out and the enemy gets control you at least now have another way to get 3 tricks on your own. Hope for a heart lead, take that trick with your Ah, then lead the Right knowing that a 2nd trump lead is very likely to clear out enemy trump and then lead the boss Kh for victory. Maybe leading under is correct in that spot. Hard to know without putting this hypothesis to the test with a decent simulation comparing strategy outcomes.

Having the AhTh tho, it is no sure thing that the Th will be the boss heart after the Ah wins the trick, so the strategy of leading under is a no-go with your hand imo. And it's certainly a no-go with a tripleton ace given that it is now less likely hearts will be led by the enemy should they take control when you lead under. So lead the Right and take it from there.

jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:13 am

Thanks. That is what I thought but the thought that my partner may have the left a lot was the concern (as you mentioned). For that example that you provided (having both AH & KH) I would actually lead the AH. I typically lead the ace 1st trick if I also have the king.

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