Dealer Weak 2 Trump Order?

[Richardb02]

I’m Dealer, R1 S4, 0-0, I’m the best of 4 weak players
Up

Would you order with this less than “edge” hand?
BPS Rating:
0.50 R1S4
0.50 Kh
0.50 Qh
0.25 Void
1.75 less than 2.00 min, Edge Hand
But, I’m worthless in Next
I’m even worthless in Reverse Next
I estimate a 60% chance of success
EV, 60% x 1 - 40% x 2 = .6 - .8 = -0.2
But if I pass:
80% chance opponents have success and 15% of 80% they get 4 points,
While we have a 20% chance of success and minimal chance of 4 points
EV, -65%x1 - 15%x4 + 20%x1 = .65-.6 + .2= -1.05
Which seems reasonable to me, since it is a bit larger than Opponent taking 1 pt
Losing -0.2 is referable to losing -1.05 point.
So I am ordering.
What are your thoughts?

[Wes (aka the legend)]

I’m Dealer, R1 S4, 0-0, I’m the best of 4 weak players
Up

I think it's too thin, but I'm very open to the idea that I'm wrong here. I'm certainly not super confident about this. I think we can safely assume that ordering this up will have a negative expected outcome. I.E. in a vacuum ordering this up will cost our team. So then the question is: Is the cost of passing greater than the cost of ordering this up. If so, then we should order this up. Pretty simple, but proving this is impossible without a good simulation testing each strategy.

That said, I do think this is an excellent hand to donate with from the dealer position if our team is up a certain amount given that we don't block any suit. Then the question is ok well how many points do we need to be up for donating to be correct. Unfortunately I don't really know. Again, it would just be a guess. But say my team is up 9-5 in this spot. I am ordering this up every time. What about if my team is up 6-3? Should I donate? I don't know. I've seen Irishwolf dealer donate in that spot and I can't blame him. I've done it too in similar spots but I'm still not sure about it.

What's the minimum hand I would order up as the dealer at 0-0? I would order up hands like this (assume QH is the upcard everytime):





The logic behind these thin calls is the same as above. I believe the cost of passing will be greater than the points I cost my team in the long run making these thin calls. And the idea is one should save their thin/questionable calls for spots where they block nothing or block only 1 out of 3 suits. Once you block 2 out of 3 suits, you now have a decent defensive hand and the cost of passing will not be as high, which means one should probably tighten up and eliminate these thin calls from their range. I also tend to tighten up if the one suit I block is Next and S1 is an aggressive player who veers toward Next.

[knglenny]

I’m the best of 4 weak players

Haven't even read the rest of the post, this did it for me

[Richardb02]

Thank you knglenny. I will take that as a complement and payment in full, for your Euchre training. LOL.

Good point Wes. Let’s use BPS on your hands:

What's the minimum hand I would order up as the dealer at 0-0? I would order up hands like this (assume QH is the upcard everytime):


BPS= 2.00, 1 klick stronger than my OP hand

BPS= 2.25 2 klicks stronger than my OP hand
Wes places his edge 1 klick higher than my hand. That is confirmation that I posted a true edge hand. (Good players can disagree).

Good players can also change their approach! I treated 0-0 as equivalent to my team being ahead by 3 and opponents having less than 8 points. It is based on Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz from circa February 2019! He “donated” or “semi-donated,” from a similar situation, several times, in his answers. Now, I am working from memory. I have not revisited Wes’ quiz answers. I invite others to find Wes’ Quiz and answers and post the appropriate hands, for further analysis.

I am not afraid to order in this spot. I’m in line with IrishWolf and only a klick off from Wes! That is quality Euchre company.

But let me add, against weak, complaining players, I will not order! It is not worth the aggravation!