Dealer Weak 2 Trump Order?

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Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Dealer Weak 2 Trump Order?

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:20 pm

I’m Dealer, R1 S4, 0-0, I’m the best of 4 weak players
(Card_Q-H) Up
(Card_K-H) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-D) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S)
Would you order with this less than “edge” hand?
BPS Rating:
0.50 R1S4
0.50 Kh
0.50 Qh
0.25 Void
1.75 less than 2.00 min, Edge Hand
But, I’m worthless in Next
I’m even worthless in Reverse Next
I estimate a 60% chance of success
EV, 60% x 1 - 40% x 2 = .6 - .8 = -0.2
But if I pass:
80% chance opponents have success and 15% of 80% they get 4 points,
While we have a 20% chance of success and minimal chance of 4 points
EV, -65%x1 - 15%x4 + 20%x1 = .65-.6 + .2= -1.05
Which seems reasonable to me, since it is a bit larger than Opponent taking 1 pt
Losing -0.2 is referable to losing -1.05 point.
So I am ordering.
What are your thoughts?



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:10 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:20 pm
I’m Dealer, R1 S4, 0-0, I’m the best of 4 weak players
(Card_Q-H) Up
(Card_K-H) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-D) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S)
I think it's too thin, but I'm very open to the idea that I'm wrong here. I'm certainly not super confident about this. I think we can safely assume that ordering this up will have a negative expected outcome. I.E. in a vacuum ordering this up will cost our team. So then the question is: Is the cost of passing greater than the cost of ordering this up. If so, then we should order this up. Pretty simple, but proving this is impossible without a good simulation testing each strategy.

That said, I do think this is an excellent hand to donate with from the dealer position if our team is up a certain amount given that we don't block any suit. Then the question is ok well how many points do we need to be up for donating to be correct. Unfortunately I don't really know. Again, it would just be a guess. But say my team is up 9-5 in this spot. I am ordering this up every time. What about if my team is up 6-3? Should I donate? I don't know. I've seen Irishwolf dealer donate in that spot and I can't blame him. I've done it too in similar spots but I'm still not sure about it.

What's the minimum hand I would order up as the dealer at 0-0? I would order up hands like this (assume QH is the upcard everytime):

(Card_9-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-C) (Card_9-D)

(Card_9-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-C)

The logic behind these thin calls is the same as above. I believe the cost of passing will be greater than the points I cost my team in the long run making these thin calls. And the idea is one should save their thin/questionable calls for spots where they block nothing or block only 1 out of 3 suits. Once you block 2 out of 3 suits, you now have a decent defensive hand and the cost of passing will not be as high, which means one should probably tighten up and eliminate these thin calls from their range. I also tend to tighten up if the one suit I block is Next and S1 is an aggressive player who veers toward Next.

knglenny
Posts: 18
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:25 pm

Unread post by knglenny » Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:18 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:20 pm
I’m the best of 4 weak players


Haven't even read the rest of the post, this did it for me

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:28 pm

Thank you knglenny. I will take that as a complement and payment in full, for your Euchre training. LOL.

Good point Wes. Let’s use BPS on your hands:


What's the minimum hand I would order up as the dealer at 0-0? I would order up hands like this (assume QH is the upcard everytime):

(Card_9-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-C) (Card_9-D)
BPS= 2.00, 1 klick stronger than my OP hand
(Card_9-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-C)
BPS= 2.25 2 klicks stronger than my OP hand
Wes places his edge 1 klick higher than my hand. That is confirmation that I posted a true edge hand. (Good players can disagree).

Good players can also change their approach! I treated 0-0 as equivalent to my team being ahead by 3 and opponents having less than 8 points. It is based on Wes’ Advanced Euchre Quiz from circa February 2019! He “donated” or “semi-donated,” from a similar situation, several times, in his answers. Now, I am working from memory. I have not revisited Wes’ quiz answers. I invite others to find Wes’ Quiz and answers and post the appropriate hands, for further analysis.

I am not afraid to order in this spot. I’m in line with IrishWolf and only a klick off from Wes! That is quality Euchre company.

But let me add, against weak, complaining players, I will not order! It is not worth the aggravation!



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