Next, Reverse Next, Or Pass

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jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Next, Reverse Next, Or Pass

Unread post by jblowery » Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:44 pm

I'm in 1st seat. Upcard is (Card_K-D) and dealer passes. On to me. I'm holding the following:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-D)

Call next (weak hearts call), reverse next (much stronger hand in clubs), or pass (knowing that you have reverse next blocked)?

Score is even. Say 5-5 or whatever.



Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:20 pm

I am going Reverse Next. Here are my numbers
0.50 R2S1
0.75 Jc
0.25 Tc
0.25 Bower + x
0.50 Singleton black Ace
2.25 vs 2.25 minimum

0.50 R2S1
0.75 R2S1 Next
0.50 Qh
0.75 Singleton green Ace
-.50 Only 1 trump
2.00 not as strong as Reverse Next, less than 2.25, so pass

Blocking Reverse Next would earn a deduction:
-.25 which would indicate pass in either Clubs or Hearts

You have illustrated an Edge Hand. I would understand any player passing R2S1. I would also understand a R2S2PASS order with Rx Trump & Ace


Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:31 pm

jblowery wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:44 pm
I'm in 1st seat. Upcard is (Card_K-D) and dealer passes. On to me. I'm holding the following:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-D)

Call next (weak hearts call), reverse next (much stronger hand in clubs), or pass (knowing that you have reverse next blocked)?

Score is even. Say 5-5 or whatever.
Jblowery you have been doing an excellent job of finding that exact head scratching edge spot lately!!

One thing I would clarify is that this spot comes down to two strategies: calling clubs or passing. Calling Next (hearts) should not be considered as one should never be making super thin Next calls when they block Reverse Next. One should save their thin Next calls for when they don't block Reverse Next, I.E. when they don't have a good defensive hand.

And I would also like to point out if we change this hand slightly to this:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D)

We shouldn't call anything unless our opponent was at 9 since we should never call marginal when we have all suits blocked.

Ok back to the OP's hand:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-D)

So then the question is, should we go against Hoyle with R+1+ an off ace + no voids due to the fact that we don't block all suits, I.E. due to the fact that we don't block diamonds. Even against hoyle this marginal call does score a point a decent amount of time. Maybe it does score a point often enough to be worth worrying about the fact that we don't block one suit? It's ok to be super paranoid about the 2 seat being loaded in Next IF our hand scores at least a point often enough. But does it? IDK. My default here has been to call clubs in this spot, but frankly I wonder a lot about this spot. I think I can definitely be wrong and I think passing here is certainly defensible. Keep in mind tho that this hand is highly score sensitive. Like you should always call clubs here up 9-7. Never give the 2 seat a chance at a miracle loner when the worst case scenario is your team will have 65% equity when you're the dealer at 9-9. I would never pass this hand with a nice lead either for the same reasons. Up 3 I'm certainly calling. It's when my team is up 2 pts or less that I wonder about. Like I said, I have been always calling but it could easily be wrong.

However, if we tweak your hand to this:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-D) (Card_10-D)

Then I'm calling clubs at any score and feeling good about it. It's still a marginal call of course, but having that void in hearts means 2 things:

1) Our TC is more likely to take a trick

&

2) With no hearts in our hand vs 1 in the previous scenario S2 is marginally more likely to have that hearts call that we would dread should we pass.

RedDuke
Posts: 393
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:57 am

I have to agree with Wes. Don't call Next here. You don't want to try a next call unless you've got 3 aces. You're literally betting too much on your partner having a killer hearts hand and if they have that then they'll call it if they can.

Second seat won't be able to make a loner here in reverse next unless you're a total moron. You've got the right in clubs (guaranteed trick) and a guarded left in spades (jack+ace is guaranteed to stop any loner in that color).

The absolute worse case scenario here is that second seat has something killer in Hearts... most players will actually order up their partner in this scenario if that was the case. Although, I've been known to be in second seat holding something like

(Card_J-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_A-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-C)

and actually pass. With this kind of hand, I'm hoping that either my partner will pick up, in which case we'll easily sweep the table or that my partner will pass and first seat will try a next call... leading to me promptly euchring them. If I get to bid in second round, I'll go alone in next.

These kinds of hands are rare though.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:23 pm

jblowery wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:44 pm
I'm in 1st seat. Upcard is (Card_K-D) and dealer passes. On to me. I'm holding the following:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-D)

Call next (weak hearts call), reverse next (much stronger hand in clubs), or pass (knowing that you have reverse next blocked)?

Score is even. Say 5-5 or whatever.
Let’s tighten our discussion to, order clubs vs. passing.

I will start by correcting my BPS numbers, on my original post:
0.50 R2S1
1.00 Jc (this is the corrected error)
0.25 Tc
0.25 R + 1
0.50 As, Singleton black ace
2.50 vs 2.25 min, 70% chance of success
*****Agreeing with Wes (a good idea about 96% of the time) and then eliminating scenarios, up 9-7 or up by 3 or more, go reverse next and call clubs.

Let’s continue the BPS approach and go beyond the 5-5 score envisioned in the OP. Even in BPS-Basic, I will adjust, based on score, in a range of 0.25 to 0.75 points. I often translate that as 1 to 3 klicks or factors.

Up 9-7, we face the possibility of a Next Loner and losing the game. That earns the max +.75 adjustment towards ordering:
2.50 base evaluation
0.75 up 9-7
3.25 vs. 2.25 min, so it is easy for me to order

With a 3 pt or more lead, I would make the same +.75 adjustment. So
3.25 vs. 2.25 min, it is easy for me to order.

Now let’s continue the BPS (Bidding Point System) approach (BPS-Advanced), and analyze the defensive value of the hand, using a point system. I continue to limit adjustments to a range of 0.25 to 0.75 points. We have 3 suits that we have to block or have a euchre hand. So continuing the logic of BPS, we limit the value to 0.25 points per suit.

For the OP hand, we have a euchre hand in clubs, we have zero blocking (and no hope of euchring) in hearts (next). In spades, we block a loner but do not have a euchre hand. So:
-.25 Clubs
0.00 Hearts
-.125 Spades (I am breaking a BPS rule of a minimum 0.25 adjustment to make several points, how I ultimately use BPS beyond BPS-Basic, Advanced and can go into Ultimate (interpolating to 0.125 points is a simple extension of the BPS approach), and BPS is simply a way to take all of the advanced, and even ultimate guidance here on OE, and assign them points!
-.375
2.50 the base hand
2.125 vs. 2.25, the minimum hand, so at this point, passing is the indication of BPS. But note, BPS, just like every informed OE post recommendation, is guidance, not a 100% sure thing. So, based on the OP hand, I would call this an edge hand. I expect informed players to disagree on how to play the hand. I will always respect their personal decision.

Let’s analyze the hand in Wes’ post:
-.125 net change, because diamonds is now blocked
2.00 vs. 2.25, the 2, 0.125 adjustments, both indicate pass, so we have a collective -.25 adjustment for 2, usually ignored simplifications for BPS, leaving us with a 0.25 point advantage to pass vs. ordering (unless the score or maybe other situations dictate additional analysis). The 0.25 point difference represents the ultimate use of the 0.25 point minimum guideline. In other words, there is a clearly definable and quantifiable advantage to passing in this situation, after, what I would consider, exhaustive analysis.

I welcome your analysis.





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