Order Partner?

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jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Order Partner?

Unread post by jblowery » Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:42 pm

Round 1 I'm in seat 2. Upcard is (Card_K-H)

I'm holding (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-C)

Order up or not? If not how would hand have to be a little different to make u order?

Trying to figure out a minimum criteria for ordering a low card. I know there is a higher threshold for a jack because u dont want to prevent a loner but what about these low cards?



RedDuke
Posts: 393
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:42 pm

The usual rule is to never order up your partner in second seat unless you've got at least three trump. Let your partner decide what to do, especially with a hand like this. Your hand is just as good in spades as it is so if your partner passes then you should call spades because his strength is probably black.

Wes might tell you to order here to prevent a first seat diamonds loner and admittedly that is a risk but most players don't call a loner even when they should. If you've got somebody super strong sitting in first seat then ordering could be considered a block.

You might try call if you've got a particularly timid partner. If you've got a partner that will call if he's got something decent then pass.

In most cases, I'd pass here and let my partner decide what to do. If Wes is my opponent in first seat then I might call. This is a really weak call though. You can't count on taking two tricks with this hand.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:13 am

jblowery wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:42 pm
Round 1 I'm in seat 2. Upcard is (Card_K-H)

I'm holding (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-C)

Order up or not? If not how would hand have to be a little different to make u order?

Trying to figure out a minimum criteria for ordering a low card. I know there is a higher threshold for a jack because u dont want to prevent a loner but what about these low cards?
This is another one of those debatable spots. I personally don't think it's debatable tho if your partner is not an expert. With a non-expert P I am always ordering up from 2 spot with 2 trump + a doubleton green ace when I block no suits. No way am I taking a chance of my P passing in this dangerous spot. The exception would be if my team is down a lot. E.G say my team is down 7-3. Then I'm passing. At that point in the game it's time to pass and hope to get lucky praying our P has a loner. This begs the question tho: "Ok how many points do we have to be down to pass and hope for a loner?" Obviously I don't really "know". I'd just be guessing, but I personally would start passing in this spot down 3 or more. Not sure about down 2. Down 1, tied or up, I'm auto-calling with a non-expert P.

What if I have an expert P. Over the last so many months I've been treating this spot the same no matter what the nature of my P. Again, 2 trump + a doubleton green ace when I block no suits I'm calling. Expert P or not, I don't wanna risk my P passing in this situation. Other strong players disagree with me on this. I'm not sure what's right but that's what I've been doing lately and I'm happy with the results, but the actual results cannot be known unless we put both strategies to the test with a good simulation but we don't have that tool. What I will say is I suspect people worry too much about blocking their P's loner when they have a non-jack upcard. Yes my aggressive strategy will block my P's loner sometimes, and yes this call will get euchred more than normal 2 seat calls but it's still a big leap to assume passing is a better strategy when that entails it's own very real risks.

My conclusion is this: With at least 95% of all P's out there who pass too much and don't go alone often enough you gotta call this except when you're desperate for a loner. With your specific holding you just can't take the very real risk of your P passing. If your P is an expert then we have a legit debate on our hands. I'm betting that calling wins out, but we may never really know.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:09 pm

jblowery wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:42 pm
Round 1 I'm in seat 2. Upcard is (Card_K-H)

I'm holding (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-C)

Order up or not? If not how would hand have to be a little different to make u order?

Trying to figure out a minimum criteria for ordering a low card. I know there is a higher threshold for a jack because u dont want to prevent a loner but what about these low cards?
I am 96% in agreement with Wes. I would order up, actually about 96% of the time. Let me explain why from my BPS perspective.

S2 requires 2.0 points to order, minimum. I consistently test the minimum points to have success (not get euchred) 65% of the time. That is the BE (break even) point of the hand EV (Expected Outcome). But BPS-Basic only analyzes about 80% of appropriate factors. (If it was more complex, IMO, it could not be used in a real game). I have been working on BPS-Advanced, to analyze 80% of the remaining 20%. (If you follow my logic, that would analyze 96% of the factors. I leave 4% for legends, like Wes and The Infinite God. LOL). BPS-Advanced can be applied in a game situation. I use it on our Monday night games. But it is better for most people to use it for analysis. It can help them to understand “general guidelines” as well as “gut instinct” plays.

Let’s analyze the hand in the OP:
0.50 R1S1
0.50 Ah
0.25 Th
0.50 As, doubleton green ace
0.25 1 Void
0.25 Value of Up Card, Kh vs min Up Card of 9 or Th
2.25 points so the hand is one factor great than the 2.00 min. BTW, I calculate the probability of winning at 70%. It is a simple interpolation of a 65% probability at 65% and a 95% probability at 3.75 points (an expected 3 tricks in my hand) = 69.3%, which I simplify to 70%.

We could stop there and order, since we have a positive EV.

Or we can analyze further. The first analysis requires understanding that I will adjust the BPS up to 0.75 based on factors over and above the BPS-Basic factors. That isn’t a lack of confidence in the BPS-Basic. That is simply realizing that Basic doesn’t attempt to address many easily recognized factors. 0.75 points is my tested limit on how much to adjust Basic. It keeps me from overestimating the power of the Up Card, the significance of the other players, adjustments because of the score, the defensive value (or none with this hand) and other factors (that are not germane to this hand).
The first item is the Up Card. I subtract the 0.25 value of the Up card and I still have 2.00 points. That is enough to order. (If the Jack was the Up Card, the impact would be to subtract 0.75 points, which doesn’t apply to this hand). So since I have the minimum 2.00 points, I would order.
The 2nd item is the score. Just like Wes, if I am 3 points or more down I would consider passing. In this hand, with an unknown Partner, if I was down 3 or more, I would adjust -.25 points. Hand is worth 2.00. I order.
The 3rd item is the defensive value of the hand. From S2, I focus on Jacks in the green suits and off-suit Aces. There is no defensive value to this hand, so I rate the hand at 2.25 points. I order.
My 4th priority, for this hand is my Partner. Having a strong partner, like Wes or Dlan and others, is +.25. They will “milk” a trick more effectively than average players. So adjusting for a strong player I now have a 2.50 hand. I am even more comfortable ordering.
But let’s add another possibility. What if we are down 3 or more and you have a strong P? I would go back to the 2.25 hand strength and reduce it by -.75 (my max adjustment), yielding 1.50 points. I would pass, hoping that P goes alone. It happened last week with Wes and me in a game. I passed a similar hand with a similar Up Card (K min). Wes went alone, made 4 points and we were up by one! It is a game of chance. You must take chances. Reasonable chances, yes, but the wins go to the players willing to take reasonable chances.
To summarize and generalize, order this hand unless you are 3 or more points behind and have a strong Partner. If J is up, order if you have 3 trump. I even order if I have Left Ace or Left King or Ace King. Score, a defensive hand and the skill of your partner are worthy of consideration, if you want to take your Euchre skills to a higher level.
Join us Monday nights, 850 PM, at World of Card Games, worldofcardgames.com. You can test your skills against other OE players. We welcome new players.

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