What do I lead?

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jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

What do I lead?

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:10 pm

I'm in first seat. Up card is (Card_A-H)

I'm holding (Card_J-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-C)

I order up. Do I lead the rt or an off card? Seems like I've had better success generally by saving the rt in this particular situation but I dont think that us what most people do. Reason is that dealer may also he strong in trump and this allows me to go after him or her. Also gives my partner a better chance of helping me. I haven't been keeping track of the stats but I think my % success has been higher this way. Fluke or because of good strategy?



Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:38 pm

I was hoping that Wes would share his deep wisdom, so I could learn more and then simplify his information to fit into my little brain. Then I would post my simplification and understand even more thoroughly. Alas, I am blinking and posting first.

My first point, is that you should consider passing and playing for a 2 point euchre! Using BPS as a probability tool, I calculate a 75% chance of success. That means a 25% chance of failure. Ordering will provide a positive EV (Estimated Value) but if S4 or S2 order that is a 75% chance of your team euchring the opponents and taking 2 points. This hand is definitely meets that criteria. It is also strong because if S4 has the Left or Queen or 3 trump total they will probably order. There are many combinations that will entice the opponents to order.

On the other hand, if S4 passed, your Next is weak and your reverse next defense is worthless. If S4 passes on me, I would go next and lead the Left. I am down to 50% chance of success, but I am also blocking a potential Loner and 4 points. You have to take reasonable gambles To win when playing Euchre.

Back to what to lead, stronger players lead the weak off suit card. I will assume that they are making the decision because they are having better success, even if it is only marginally better. Personally, when I have power, I play power. 3 trump including the Right is power. I lead the Right. I could make a case for the benefits of leading the Right, but my main reason is to avoid mistakes. There are fewer possible errors playing your power hand with power than trying to finesse. You don’t need finesse when you have power. There is another point. Keep in mind I expect to get euchred with this hand 25% of the time. That is simply 1 hand out of 4. I can keep track enough to sense if I am only failing 1 out of 4 opportunities. I suggest the improvement by leading a weak off suit can only reduce the euchre rate to 1 out of 5. I have no confidence in any but the most dedicated player keeping track of their results that accurately. I definitely am not there.

Another secret though. I mix it up. You also have to keep opponents guessing. That definitely applies if you are playing the same players with any frequency. That happens to us on Monday nights. Come join the game Monday Nights 850 PM ET and experience the difference.

RedDuke
Posts: 444
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:27 pm

On the other hand, if S4 passed, your Next is weak and your reverse next defense is worthless. If S4 passes on me, I would go next and lead the Left. I am down to 50% chance of success, but I am also blocking a potential Loner and 4 points. You have to take reasonable gambles To win when playing Euchre.
I'd probably order here and lead the right. You have three trump, meaning that there's only four more among the other players and the kitty. It's pretty unlikely that the dealer will also have three and that's the only real scenario that will get you in trouble by calling with what you have.

Most players aren't going to call without the right unless they have three trump. Sure, you could try for a euchre, but unless the dealer or his partner has three of the four remaining trumps, I think it's pretty unlikely that they will order.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:34 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:10 pm
I'm in first seat. Up card is (Card_A-H)

I'm holding (Card_J-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-C)

I order up. Do I lead the rt or an off card? Seems like I've had better success generally by saving the rt in this particular situation but I dont think that us what most people do. Reason is that dealer may also he strong in trump and this allows me to go after him or her. Also gives my partner a better chance of helping me. I haven't been keeping track of the stats but I think my % success has been higher this way. Fluke or because of good strategy?
This is a hotly debated spot and as far as I know the math/simulation doesn't exist to give us guidance. I once polled the four strongest players in my weekly tournament on this very question. One said "you gotta lead the right". The other three believed you should lead an offsuit garbage card. I'm not sure what is best but lately I have been experimenting with leading an offsuit like you have. In this case I would lead the KC--I.E. lead the higher offsuit as it is more likely to walk or bring out trump.

One caveat: If you have 3 trump without the Right, then the four players I polled plus me would always lead trump. Not leading trump with 3 can work when you hold the right becuz you'll often get to set up an endplay. That's not possible when you don't hold the right.

XaviRonaldo
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:51 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:34 pm
jblowery wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:10 pm
One caveat: If you have 3 trump without the Right, then the four players I polled plus me would always lead trump. Not leading trump with 3 can work when you hold the right becuz you'll often get to set up an endplay. That's not possible when you don't hold the right.
Yep, in general the lower your trump are the more important it is to lead trump. You often need to eliminate those high trump finessing you. You need to try and make the opponents use them on the same trick.

Add to that, by leading offsuit you likely will need to use a trump to take your first trick and may be overtrumped attempting to do so. You then are only left with 2 trump which can be very treacherous to lead trump with. By leading trump with 3 trump you are almost guaranteeing you at least get 1 trick with trump and likely getting 2 tricks with trump because you're hopefully eliminating those killer high trump.

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:03 pm

Great thread! This thread, earned it’s 1,104 views! Thank you, to each Euchre player-poster, for outstanding posts, who shared their experiences and wisdom!

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