Down 6 to 9, what is the best Euchre play?

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Richardb02
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Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Down 6 to 9, what is the best Euchre play?

Unread post by Richardb02 » Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:58 pm

Your team is down 6 to 9. Partner is Dealer and has Jd up. What would you do.

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[url=https://ohioeuchre.com/hands/image/knlv]

Factors you may want to consider:
__A Loner that makes 4 points wins the game and snatches a victory from the jaws of defeat. It makes sense to consider a Loner. It makes sense to loosen the hand you require to go Alone.
__Your Left is as strong as a Right if you go Alone! You have 3 trump. 3 trump has additional value. This hand is 3 factors stronger than the cards alone.
__There are only 2 single cards that can stop your Loner, Ac and Ah. There are only 2 cards, Kd, Ad, that can stop your 4 points if they are paired with another trump (a parlay).
__Can you calculate your possibility of taking 4 points and winning the game? Can you do it in real time?
__What do you think happened with this hand?



EuchrePartners
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Joined: Mon May 25, 2020 2:16 pm

Unread post by EuchrePartners » Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:02 am

I'd order and try it alone. Should be good for at least 1 point and keep us in the game. Otherwise, the team at 9 will call either clubs or spades and almost certainly score and win.

Richardb02
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Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:41 am

Good Points!

Do you have an estimate of the possibility of earning 4 points and winning the game?

EuchrePartners
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Joined: Mon May 25, 2020 2:16 pm

Unread post by EuchrePartners » Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:57 am

I'll take a wild guess at the probability of 4 points...maybe once in every 12 tries?

Richardb02
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Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:10 pm

One out of 12 = 1/12= 8.3%. Very reasonable compared to my calculations below!
I use a simple, but multi-step approach, to analyze the possibility of taking 4 points.
1st, count the single cards that can stop my Loner.
The Jd is in Partner's hand so it can not stop me.
The Kd and Ad as well as the Ac can stop me so:
3 single cards can stop me.
Additionally a guarded Ah can stop me.
That is a combination or a parlay.
I am simplifying that as equivalent to 0.25 single cards.
The chance of a single card can be calculated as 44%.
I round that off to 0.50, 50% probability that a single card can stop me. Also of my success!
(I justify rounding up because "Stoppers" can and are discarded as the hand is played!)
That means that 2 cards have a 0.50 x 0.50= 0.5^2 = 25% probability to take 4 points.
The 3rd card is expressed 0.50x0.50x0.50= 0.5^3 = 0.125 or a 12.5% possibility to take 4 points.
A 4th single card would be 0.5^4= 6.25%
But we aren't up against 4 cards, we are up against 3.25 equivalents!
That could be expressed as 0.5^3.25. The calculator on my phone gives me 10.5%.
But we don't have time to consult our calculator.
So interpolate between 12.5% and 6.25%, about 1.5% per parlay and I get 11% chance of success.
Now what? Know the magic number of single card equivalents to come at ahead.
Let's calculate an EV, the Expected Value of the hand.
I see a 10% possibility of being euchred, 11% getting 4 points and 79% getting 1 point. So:
0.10x-2+0.11x4+.79x1= -.2+.44+.79= 1.03. A positive EV.
So this hand is just above my breakeven point. I use it as my "Edge Hand" to go Alone.
This scenario has us down 6-9. My probability of winning is about 10% (my "guessimate").
So I see no logical reason to not go Alone!
That is my analysis.

But don't let all the details scare you.
Simply count up the single cards and the card combinations that can stop you and if it is 3.25 or less, go Alone. It is a simple and empowering approach to go Alone more often. In this scenario, it also snatched a victory from the jaws of defeat!

WolfHills
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Location: Abingdon VA

Unread post by WolfHills » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:00 pm

I love the analysis. To me it would be a no brainer in that spot but love to have the data to back it up.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:06 pm

I definitely go alone in that spot. The only caveat is in a tough game you should just call. By tough game I mean a game where everybody donates. E.G. If I'm in S1 don't waste your time going alone cuz I will have AdKdTd in my hand 110% of the time :) . So bring your partner's Right bower along for the ride to help make sure you don't go set. That said, this a loner in around 99% of game textures out there where the vast majority play their cards instead of playing to win.

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:30 pm

I'd order and try this alone.

Your left is basically as good as the right, plus you've got 3 trump. Honestly, it's pretty unlikely that you'll be able to sweep this, but in that case, your partner can't do much to help you. So it's worth a shot.

Richardb02
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Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:19 am

For newer visitors and as a reminder to experienced visitors. This type of hand is identified in the Ohio Euchre Lessons under Going Alone!

You can also get there by clicking this link:

https://ohioeuchre.com/E_When-Should-I-Play-Alone.php

[Are there any iPad people that can explain to me the simplest way to copy and paste a link like this? I could not go to Lessons while logged in, copy the link and then paste it in my forum post. I had to perform a google search, “when to go alone,” copy that link, return to my forum post (where I was logged in) and paste the link! There should be an easier way! Does anyone else experience limitations while using an iPad?]

jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:55 pm

Order it up. Now you may only be down 9-8 which is very winnable. Loner is too much of a long shot.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:10 pm

jblowery, we could use a 4th player for Monday night at 850PM ET. Are you available?

Anyone else? We can always add an extra table.

The games are online at
worldofcardgames.com

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