Impromptu games 3-20 #1

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Dlan
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Impromptu games 3-20 #1

Unread post by Dlan » Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:13 pm

So many donates, had to be a record, lol.
Would/should you block at 0-0

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https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D



irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:21 pm

Of course! The question is why not? I knew a loner attempt was on the way! I did not give away 2 points, it was 1 point give away. I can't see your hand, only his and mine. lol

For me, donate at any score that four points is a high probability! I will give up 1 but not 3.

Funny thing is this website gives players higher than one would expect with randomly dealt cards for loners. One would predict a Jack up every six hands. I do believe this is exceeded at worldofcardgames dealer. I will give you an example, the last hand in game 2, JD is up, score 8 to 10 (dealer's side). The dealer has four diamonds and S3 has JH guarded. From S3 hand, 18 unknown cards to have four diamonds is 0.16%, 1.6 hands in a 1000 the opponents have the stopper. Statistical coincidence? Hardly! In that game there were five 'potential' donates or loner attempts. I suspect the programming is for excitement and not random cards.

In total, last night there was more DONATING than the Salvation Army gets at Christmas time. At least 17 donates for 10 games. Additionally, 21 attempts and seven successful loners that included that game on a later hand.

RedDuke
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Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:50 am

For me, donate at any score that four points is a high probability! I will give up 1 but not 3.
How do you typically judge that? Something like there's a jack up and you have no trumps in your hand (thus making it rather likely that the dealer has three?)

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:49 am

First of all you won't find what I am about to describe ANYWHERE in the World of Euchre. It is some what unique to me, and I have worked on stopping loners for a very long time. I have had a lot of players ask me the same question. In a previous discussion this was touched on briefly. I will also say too many players donate too much. If you are euchred three times in a game for all reasons, you will lose that game 90% of the time. That is a fact!

However, I also know that the team that scores a loner, either side, will win the game 85 - 90% of the time unless the other partnership scores a loner. So you have to block those loners. My philosophy is score does not matter. Of course you have to consider the score, can't donate at 8 & 8, etc.

I know what is in my hand and I combine that with some other sensing factors. Score is mostly not a factor for me until late in the game. I just know a loner attempt is coming but the score might be such I can't do it and just take my lumps. I track my donating. If you can't be in the range of 65% you might as well not donate at all. And that is probably what most players should do, not donate until 9 to 6 or 7.

The breakeven point is that I can donate twice in a game and still have a positive EV as long as only ONE of was a successful loner. If neither was a loner then I just gave away most likely only 1 point if one of those was a sweep. Those are great odds that favors me. Tracking, I am 75 - 80% accurate. I am NOT perfect (nothing is), and I can live with that. My focus is on the dealer but also noting my hand as well. I also factor in does my partner, when I at S3, believe in donating. I am actually more accurate at S3 in predicting. Thus, I can't tell what my partner might have a stopper, (still working on that part) like in the hand above.

So what about my partner? I also know statistically (fact) is well below 40% (about 20-25%) has the left guarded or an ace stopper or void to my lead (three variables unaccounted for but I know the range). But look at my hand above no stopper to that hand.

So you see, some is fact and some say fantasy but I know better! lol

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:33 pm

With IW's hand I'm blocking 100% of the time. No trump, no aces vs a Jack upcard is the worst spot in the game. With that bad of a hand I'm blocking a Jack whenever my opponents have 7 pts or less. But yeah, don't ask me to prove this approach is correct becuz I can't but that's what I'm doing.

Random thought: Since I haven't deleted any hands we've played since we started having these online games, maybe one day I'll separate out all hands that I wouldve blocked, and see how they actually perform vs passing. That would be fun but a lot of work.

Edit: what do I mean by "all the hands I would've blocked"?

I mean hands I actually blocked myself and hands other players have blocked that I also would've blocked with. If a player donates with a hand I would not donate with I would not include that hand in my analysis.

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