OHIO WEEKLY 3/16 stopping lones

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Dlan
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OHIO WEEKLY 3/16 stopping lones

Unread post by Dlan » Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:54 pm




Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:46 pm

With Richard's hand I would donate with no trump no aces vs a Jack at 3-3, but that's besides the point. The big mistake in this hand is Richard not understanding that he needs to hold his KSQS for the last two streets. His heart lead is good, but after the dealer trumps hearts, he should instantly know he's holding to his doubleton King here. I've seen Richard do this before (blow up his doubleton for no good reason). There appears to be somekind of disconnect when it comes to defending against loners.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:11 pm

No way this should have been a sweep! If it were me, I would have led the KC to start with. Then get rid of the hearts and depend on your partner to save hearts.

Not sure I would have donated.

But that is life.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:04 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:11 pm
No way this should have been a sweep! If it were me, I would have led the KC to start with. Then get rid of the hearts and depend on your partner to save hearts.

Not sure I would have donated.

But that is life.
I would lead the heart since that's the suit my P is most likely void in and we could always catch the maker with the AH on the first lead. Just curious, why do you think the KC is a better lead in this spot.

irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm

I would not lead heart, it is NOT the best stopper lead.

"I would lead the heart since that's the suit my P is most likely void in and we could always catch the maker with the AH on the first lead. Just curious, why do you think the KC is a better lead in this spot "



First of all S3 is not the one going alone. Secondly, it has already been discussed as eldest has 2 hearts, 3 remain. The Dealer then of 3 hearts will be Void in hearts over 70% of the time. S3 has to have a void and a trump and whatever S3 trumps the dealer will statistically over trump.

In this situation, hearts was led and the Dealer played the AH. NOW WHAT DO YOU DO AS YOU YOU HAVE THE 9H COVERED?

However, the KC is a better stopper and needs to be eliminated for the Eldest as will cover 9S 10S JS, QS, four trailers. You have no clue what the trailer card, if the dealer has one will be. Four spades is statistically higher probability than S3 have a void and a trump. Hearts in this situation is only your (eldest) trash suit so eliminate Clubs and save spades. This concept of leading next is for when S3 goes alone. Other than that you have 16.7% more favorable leading Next and with the King you have better Odds of a stopper.

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:02 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm
I would not lead heart, it is NOT the best stopper lead.
I agree a heart lead is not the best stopper, but it is our best chance at catching our P's void since it is our dirtiest suit. There is value in that since our P usually only has one chance to trump in on his void: the first lead. This strategy is basically hoping to catch our P's void and the Maker's off ace at the same time.
Wes wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm
I would lead the heart since that's the suit my P is most likely void in and we could always catch the maker with the AH on the first lead. Just curious, why do you think the KC is a better lead in this spot "
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm
First of all S3 is not the one going alone.
I know that. I dont reflexively lead Next from S1. Typically, after I designate what doubleton suit I'm saving for the 4th & 5th trick, I lead the dirtiest suit hoping to catch my P's void on the first lead.

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm
Secondly, it has already been discussed as eldest has 2 hearts, 3 remain. The Dealer then of 3 hearts will be Void in hearts over 70% of the time. S3 has to have a void and a trump and whatever S3 trumps the dealer will statistically over trump.
I agree the value is limited. I dont worry about the dealer over-trumping as I'm basically trying to catch the dealers off ace here.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm
In this situation, hearts was led and the Dealer played the AH. NOW WHAT DO YOU DO AS YOU YOU HAVE THE 9H COVERED?
I would hold onto the higher heart til the end unless the 9H came out.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm
However, the KC is a better stopper and needs to be eliminated for the Eldest as will cover 9S 10S JS, QS, four trailers. You have no clue what the trailer card, if the dealer has one will be. Four spades is statistically higher probability than S3 have a void and a trump. Hearts in this situation is only your (eldest) trash suit so eliminate Clubs and save spades. This concept of leading next is for when S3 goes alone. Other than that you have 16.7% more favorable leading Next and with the King you have better Odds of a stopper.

~Irishwolf
I agree with you now. Leading hearts is incorrect out of this configuration, so I was wrong. The inherent stopper value of the KC is greater then the value of more likely finding our P's void.

Say dealer goes alone in diamonds and you are in S1 with:

(Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_9-C)

Now a heart lead would be best, correct? Since a heart lead gains some albeit limited value of being more likely to catch our Ps void on the first lead and now we're not incorrectly sacrificing better stopper value from another suit. Just making sure we're on the same page.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:54 pm

Yes, I agree (between the suits you show of KS QS 9C) ..."Now a heart lead would be best, correct?"

But to the original hand lead the KC! Then S2 discards the QH followed by the 10H that signals he is saving Spades you save Hearts.

I think we are on the same page.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:05 am

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:54 pm
Yes, I agree (between the suits you show of KS QS 9C) ..."Now a heart lead would be best, correct?"

But to the original hand lead the KC! Then S2 discards the QH followed by the 10H that signals he is saving Spades you save Hearts.

I think we are on the same page.
Here's another example that came up last night:

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Richard should've led the KS becuz its stopper potential is more valuable than the fact that the Qd will find his P's void more often, and then Richard should hold his Qc9c til the end, and throw off the Qd asap telling his P he is not covering diamonds. Agree?

I'm pretty sure Richard led the Qd here due to getting bad advice from me. Sorry about that Richard.

PS: I will ignore the fact that Richard should've donated in this spot becuz that's not germane to this discussion. :)

irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:31 am

That is the hand I remember too. It surprised me and we need a loner to stay in the game! The KS lead would be my choice and keep the clubs at the end. It does leave diamonds between you vulnerable. However, one should keep in mind YOU CANNOT AS A PLAYER save three stoppers.

Total Fireman's drill at the end!

So Richard, to be helpful, rethink these two hands on stoppers!


~Irishwolf

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