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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:46 pm
Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:11 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:04 pm
I would lead the heart since that's the suit my P is most likely void in and we could always catch the maker with the AH on the first lead. Just curious, why do you think the KC is a better lead in this spot.
Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:02 pm
I agree a heart lead is not the best stopper, but it is our best chance at catching our P's void since it is our dirtiest suit. There is value in that since our P usually only has one chance to trump in on his void: the first lead. This strategy is basically hoping to catch our P's void and the Maker's off ace at the same time.
I know that. I dont reflexively lead Next from S1. Typically, after I designate what doubleton suit I'm saving for the 4th & 5th trick, I lead the dirtiest suit hoping to catch my P's void on the first lead.
I agree the value is limited. I dont worry about the dealer over-trumping as I'm basically trying to catch the dealers off ace here.
I would hold onto the higher heart til the end unless the 9H came out.
I agree with you now. Leading hearts is incorrect out of this configuration, so I was wrong. The inherent stopper value of the KC is greater then the value of more likely finding our P's void.irishwolf wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pmHowever, the KC is a better stopper and needs to be eliminated for the Eldest as will cover 9S 10S JS, QS, four trailers. You have no clue what the trailer card, if the dealer has one will be. Four spades is statistically higher probability than S3 have a void and a trump. Hearts in this situation is only your (eldest) trash suit so eliminate Clubs and save spades. This concept of leading next is for when S3 goes alone. Other than that you have 16.7% more favorable leading Next and with the King you have better Odds of a stopper.
~Irishwolf
Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:54 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:05 am
Here's another example that came up last night:irishwolf wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:54 pmYes, I agree (between the suits you show of KS QS 9C) ..."Now a heart lead would be best, correct?"
But to the original hand lead the KC! Then S2 discards the QH followed by the 10H that signals he is saving Spades you save Hearts.
I think we are on the same page.
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:31 am
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