Weekly 3/2 Skill,Luck or what?

Ask questions, discuss and debate your strategies, euchre polls and more
Post Reply
User avatar
Dlan
Site Admin
Posts: 395
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:08 pm
Location: Ohio

Weekly 3/2 Skill,Luck or what?

Unread post by Dlan » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:29 am

‘We’ turns downs the ace of clubs. ‘Wo’ calls hearts-makes a point. Is there something to be learned here?

Image

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D



irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:17 pm

That was skill in two ways! One is not Passing! And two is the Double lead of Spades. You don't have to have them all to make a point. When S2 took the 9H with the JD, why not lead the AD? Leading the 9S is 66% you will lose the trick?

Question is why not call next? I thought about it but Everyone had been bagging on Next with regularity! So I crossed the suit for good - I don't always call next (or set a pattern of play), but that time my partner was strong and I was wrong.

If you have both Jacks and a green ace why no order?

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:30 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:17 pm
That was skill in two ways! One is not Passing! And two is the Double lead of Spades. You don't have to have them all to make a point. When S2 took the 9H with the JD, why not lead the AD? Leading the 9S is 66% you will lose the trick?

Question is why not call next? I thought about it but Everyone had been bagging on Next with regularity! So I crossed the suit for good - I don't always call next (or set a pattern of play), but that time my partner was strong and I was wrong.
I don't think there's anyway to justify a heart call in that spot unless you're Neo and you can see through the matrix. Lol. Come on man. Just call Next.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:17 pm
If you have both Jacks and a green ace why no order?

~Irishwolf
Don's pass is totally standard. In fact you should feel insulted if he had called! Let me explain. Firstly, that hand--both bowers + an off Ace--is an excellent hand to bag the dealer with. Yeah you have both bowers and you're worried the dealer will pass but you still only have 2 trump. There's still a lot of calling combos the dealer can have. And if the dealer passes, it's not the end of the world if you have a strong partner who will call aggressively veering towards Next. So with a strong partner you can have your cake and eat it too in this spot.

The time to call with this hand is if you don't trust your partner in the 2nd round. That's why you should feel insulted if Don calls. Don knows you're a strong player, and he needs to take advantage of that fact.

Also, there's another part of this equation that makes calling not just bad but downright atrocious. The dealer, me, is a very aggressive player--arguably too aggressive. Calling with 2 bowers and an off Ace will let me off the hook way too often. Don should attack my range from the 3rd spot as much as reasonable by bagging hands like this. And becuz his P is a world class player, he has a license to do just that!

BTW just for the fun of it, let's figure out how often I'm calling when Don passes his hand (from Don's perspective so only his cards + the upcard are exposed).

3 trump: 4C2 x 14C3 = 2,184 combos
4 trump: 4C3 x 14C2 = 364 combos
5 trump: 4C4 x 14C1 = 14 combos
2 trump + 2 aces: 4C1 x 2C2 x 12C2 = 264 combos
2 trump + a singleton Next Ace excluding both red bowers to account for those marginal defensive calls I'll make: 4C1 x 1C1 x 1C0 x 2C0 x 4C0 x 6C3 = 80 combos
2 trump + the AD excluding both red bowers: 4C1 x 1C1 x 1C0 x 2C0 x 10C3 = 480 combos

Total calling combos: 3,386
Total possible combos: 18C5 = 8,568
I'm calling 3,386/8568 = 39.52% of the time.

Amost 40%. That's a pretty big number considering Don has both bowers + an off Ace. With a strong partner in S1, and me as the dealer, calling here would be a HUGE mistake.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm

Although I was being somewhat facetious you are only telling part of the story. Your math proves NOTHING! It's one side of what can and will occur. You will have to provide more Proof. Read on!
I would estimate ordering you will make a point 75% to 80% of the time. Being euchred when S1 has no trump and no off suit aces (2). And this is the critical part, the number of times you will euchred the dealer of those 39.5%. It's not 39%, perhaps half. Assuming half, or lets say 25% which is 50 points from euchres compared to the ordering and making a point. So you would give up making a point 75% of the for what a chance that euchring the dealer? Or that you know for sure your partner will call next?

Consider that a hand of J J 9 of trump w/o an ace is not stronger than J J with Green ace. S1 will have a trump or an off suit ace to lead about 85 - 88% of the time.

So now it comes down to making Next. It won't be 61% that Eldest makes next.

Of course my preference is to pass if my partner calls next. Don't be surprised if he crosses suit 30% of the time. One has to consider that if S1 calls next at a high percentage, it opens up to Euchres, guessing that my partner at S3 has next. Sets up for being euchred. So that is the other half of the story.

Total calling combos: 3,386
Total possible combos: 18C5 = 8,568
I'm calling 3,386/8568 = 39.52% of the time.

Amost 40%. That's a pretty big number considering Don has both bowers + an off Ace. With a strong partner in S1, and me as the dealer, calling here would be a HUGE mistake.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:30 pm

You might call 39% but not most ALL players and that number is closer to 30%. So the dealer is PASSING on the average 70% of the time. So the question then becomes what percentage does Eldest make next? And on 1 trump, 2 trumps or what? You have to make up all those points you would have made by order (75 to 80%).

Even of the 30% the dealer the dealer makes you will not euchre the dealer having 4 trumps heart void and his partner has the spade/diamond winner. The other of 3 trumps all depends on the lead, what S2 has. Perhaps a 50 - 60% euchre rate of that 25.4%.

So your numbers and conclusion leaves a lot to be desired.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:36 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm
Although I was being somewhat facetious you are only telling part of the story. Your math proves NOTHING! It's one side of what can and will occur. You will have to provide more Proof. Read on!
I would estimate ordering you will make a point 75% to 80% of the time. Being euchred when S1 has no trump and no off suit aces (2). And this is the critical part, the number of times you will euchred the dealer of those 39.5%. It's not 39%, perhaps half. Assuming half, or lets say 25% which is 50 points from euchres compared to the ordering and making a point.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm
So you would give up making a point 75% of the for what a chance that euchring the dealer? Or that you know for sure your partner will call next?
I think the greater point is when I am the dealer and Don calls with this hand in the 3rd spot he will be making a technical mistake around 40% of the time vs my range. I.E. 40% of the time Don calls, I would've called had he passed. IOW 40% of the time Don calls he will wish he hadn't, or we could say 40% of the time Don will be making a decision he would not if he could see my cards. That's a big number. That's a large percentage of technical mistakes. We would prefect never to be in a spot where we are making a technical mistake 40% of the time, but sometimes we can't help it, but with a good player in S1 we can.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm
So you would give up making a point 75% of the for what a chance that euchring the dealer? Or that you know for sure your partner will call next?
Passing gives us the benefit of both avoiding a euchre ourselves (something we should appreciate holding just 2 trump, albeit both bowers, from the 3rd spot), and the benefit of having the chance to euchre our enemy should the dealer call. And it's not just about counting on our partner to call Next. Our partner can still have a legit 1 pt, 2pt, 4 pt hand himself. And that's another thing, calling here doesn't just result in creating a technical mistake around 40% when I'm the dealer, it's actually much, much higher when you factor in all the times S1 has a legit hand himself, since if you could see that S1 had a legit hand you would never call with this hand in the first round (that's the parlay problem I've always talked about in this spot, we could easily be making a technical mistake 80% of the time when we have a good P, and that's a conservative guess imo, I actually suspect it's higher).

And our strong partner isn't going to call Next blindly. If they have reverse next blocked and are marginal in all directions they should pass, and notice when that happens there's actually a decent chance the action gets back to you. S2 may not find a call if S1 has black covered, and if S2 does call your team could easily have a combined euchre hand vs S2's call, and now have a good chance to euchre him.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm
Consider that a hand of J J 9 of trump w/o an ace is not stronger than J J with Green ace. S1 will have a trump or an off suit ace to lead about 85 - 88% of the time.

So now it comes down to making Next. It won't be 61% that Eldest makes next.
And it doesn't need to be.
irishwolf wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm
Of course my preference is to pass if my partner calls next. Don't be surprised if he crosses suit 30% of the time. One has to consider that if S1 calls next at a high percentage, it opens up to Euchres, guessing that my partner at S3 has next. Sets up for being euchred. So that is the other half of the story.
Yes, sometimes S1 will cross the river with a good but marginal call and get euchred. That is the cost of this strategy. No strategy is perfect, but there's just too many good things that can happen if Don passes in this spot, and avoiding all those technical mistakes easily makes up for any cost this strategy may bear. That's why when I make this call from S3 it is always a sad call. I'm basically saying my partner sux, therefore I call.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:55 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:30 pm
You might call 39% but not most ALL players and that number is closer to 30%. So the dealer is PASSING on the average 70% of the time.
Just for the fun of it I can actually tell you Edward's exact calling percentage in this spot, and probably the exact calling percentage of the 3 other strong players I play with, becuz all of them avoid making the defensive calls I make from the dealer spot, and all of them will call with 2 low trump + 2 aces in that spot. So here it is:

3 trump: 4C2 x 14C3 = 2,184 combos
4 trump: 4C3 x 14C2 = 364 combos
5 trump: 4C4 x 14C1 = 14 combos
2 trump + 2 aces: 4C1 x 2C2 x 12C2 = 264 combos

Total calling combos: 2,826
Total possible combos: 18C5 = 8,568
The typical strong euchre player is calling 2,826/8568 = 32.98% of the time

For your average run of the mill euchre player, I would eliminate 2 low trump + 2 aces and I think we'll get a decent approximation:

3 trump: 4C2 x 14C3 = 2,184 combos
4 trump: 4C3 x 14C2 = 364 combos
5 trump: 4C4 x 14C1 = 14 combos

Total calling combos: 2,562 combos
An average euchre player is calling 2,562/8568 = 29.90%

So your claim that the dealer is passing around 70% of the time checks out. But I actually don't think that's relevant at all. I would assert that the nature of the dealer should have nothing to do with our decision point. I think the decision of whether to call or pass all comes down to the nature of our P. If we have a strong P this is a mandatory pass. If we have a weak P, we gotta call. If the dealer is more aggressive like me, then that's just more frosting on top of the passing cake.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:30 pm
So the question then becomes what percentage does Eldest make next? And on 1 trump, 2 trumps or what? You have to make up all those points you would have made by order (75 to 80%).
Well I can only tell you what I would do in that spot which ofc implies what I think a strong player will do (and this certainly matches up with what Edward does as my P). Outside of legit 1 pt, 2 pt, 4 pt calling hands, and excluding stopper hands/euchre hands, S1 should be calling Next whenever he doesn't have reverse Next blocked. If he has reverse next blocked and is marginal in all directions he should pass. The close/debatable spots is when S1 has L+2 with no off aces in reverse next but doesn't block Next, or when S1 has R+1+ an off ace in a reverse next call but doesn't block Next.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:28 pm

You don't get, IT'S NOT ABOUT YOU! Or you and Ed as you are regular players so of Course you both will be calling Next often! But what are you or any player going to do with random partners. Even with an experienced player, YOU will not have both Jacks only 6.5% of the time. What is going to happen the 93.5% of the time when the dealer Passes? Some would say you have Confirmation Bias, looking information to support you statements that you have NOT explored what else. So now look at the other side of the equation, what will discover?

Of course it would be nice having two Bowers at S3 for eldest to call next. And Ifs and Buts were Candy and Nuts, what a wonderful world it would be.

I gave you the estimated points you or S3 will be scoring by ordering. It's REAL! So are those euchres.

And my statements below still stand as written:

You might call 39% but not most ALL players and that number is closer to 30%. So the dealer is PASSING on the average 70% of the time. So the question then becomes what percentage does Eldest make next? And on 1 trump, 2 trumps or what? You have to make up all those points you would have made by order (75 to 80%).

Even of the 30% the dealer the dealer makes you will not euchre the dealer having 4 trumps heart void and his partner has the spade/diamond winner. The other of 3 trumps all depends on the lead, what S2 has. Perhaps a 50 - 60% euchre rate of that 25.4%.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:46 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:28 pm
You don't get, IT'S NOT ABOUT YOU! Or you and Ed as you are regular players so of Course you both will be calling Next often!
I agree. It's not about me, and furthermore it's not about the dealer. It's about S1. For example, if you were my partner I am never calling with both bowers + an off Ace in the 3rd seat, 1st round.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:28 pm
But what are you or any player going to do with random partners.
My default is to call with random partners, but I still even wonder about that given the inherent parlay problem with S3 calls.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:28 pm
Even with an experienced player, YOU will not have both Jacks only 6.5% of the time.
We are talking about Don's specific holding here. 2 bowers + an off ace from 3rd. If you wanna talk about what I would do with some other hand, sure, bring it up.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:23 pm

You said, in the first post it was about bagging and I demonstrated you would make a point 75 to 80%. Even if considering combinations you make about 40 points. So you now have to make up 40 points. And eldest will be passing or making next with 1 or 0 clubs the majority of the time (57%).

Firstly, that hand--both bowers + an off Ace--is an excellent hand to bag the dealer with ...

You are just being defensive!

I could care less about a dead hand. It's all about what to do in general. I have observed on OE Mondays S1 passing with 3 in next.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:45 am

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:23 pm
You said, in the first post it was about bagging and I demonstrated you would make a point 75 to 80%. Even if considering combinations you make about 40 points. So you now have to make up 40 points. And eldest will be passing or making next with 1 or 0 clubs the majority of the time (57%).

Firstly, that hand--both bowers + an off Ace--is an excellent hand to bag the dealer with ...

You are just being defensive!
I don't even know what we are arguing about anymore, but whatever the argument it, we just have to agree to disagree at this point. I will ALWAYS believe ordering this hand from the 3rd spot when one has a strong P is very poor level zero play until hard data that doesn't exist proves otherwise. And when I'm the dealer, it's just a downright atrocious call.

Again, the parlay problem is real. Every time we order and the dealer would've called had we passed we are making a technical mistake. Every time we order and S1 had a 1 pt, 2pt or 4 pt hand in the 2nd rd we are also making a technical mistake since there's no way we would make this marginal call had we known that. Why call with a marginal hand from 3rd and fight for a pt when we need a parlay to occur in order for our call to be technically correct (The parlay being both the dealer would've passed had we passed and S1 doesn't have a 1 pt, 2 pt, or 4 pt calling hand). And again, if S1 is a strong player we can have our cake and eat it too, as he will always call something, veering towards Next, if he doesn't have reverse next blocked. Having a strong P in S1 allows us the privilege to pass and avoid making tons of technical mistakes, avoid missing an opportunity to euchre the dealer, avoid getting euchred ourselves, avoid blocking our P's 2nd round loners, etc. We should take advantage of that privilege.

After all, whats the expected outcome of this 3rd seat call anyways? Say we get euchred 20% which feels kinda low to me but whatever, say we get 2 points 10% of the time, an assumption that I think is conservative cuz I doubt it's that often, and then fill in the rest, we get 1 point 70% of the time.

So our EO is: (-2 x .2) + (1 x .70) + (2 x .10) = .50 pts

We can do better than that.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:23 pm
I could care less about a dead hand. It's all about what to do in general.

I can never speak generally about 3rd seat, 1st round play. It has to be a hand by hand analysis for me. There's just too much going on in that spot. If I have no read on my P, I will assume he sux and therefore I will make this marginal call becuz I can't trust him in the 2nd round, and to reiterate I am still not convinced that even this read-based adjustment is correct becuz the parlay problem is real whether your P sux or not and we're still talking about a marginal 2 trump hand from 3rd, but that's the adjustment I make. If my P is a good player tho, I'm NEVER calling in this spot.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:23 pm
I have observed on OE Mondays S1 passing with 3 in next.
Everybody is aggressive in the Monday night game, so either you observed someone passing with a euchre hand or they misclicked. I would bet $10K that passing this hand in this spot beats out an EO of .5 pts with Don, Kirsten, Richard, or you as my P in S1. If a clone of me was in the dealer seat, I'd bet way more.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:59 am

So now you put me in a position that I am MUST be a liar (I have my faults but that I am not.) or will have to demonstrate my statement as being true. So I have no choice.
On February 10 at 9:25pm, Rich was the dealer, 9S up and holds 2 spades – 10S QS 10C 9D KD and Passes. DON at S1 has 3 clubs in Next: 9C KC AC 10H QH And he PASSES again. I made hearts holding I made hearts 9H QC AD QD AS 9H. You held AH KH KS JD 10D and I was euchred. Definitely not a euchre hand at S1!

But the bottom line here is Pass on a Biddable hand with nothing to run to, kills your partner's bidding, most of the time!

I can give you more but like me holding 3 in next at S3 and the suit is crossed at S1 resulting in a euchre. So be careful of what you say. Let's move on.

"Everybody is aggressive in the Monday night game, so either you observed someone passing with a euchre hand or they misclicked."

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:05 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:59 am
So now you put me in a position that I am MUST be a liar (I have my faults but that I am not.) or will have to demonstrate my statement as being true. So I have no choice.
On February 10 at 9:25pm, Rich was the dealer, 9S up and holds 2 spades – 10S QS 10C 9D KD and Passes. DON at S1 has 3 clubs in Next: 9C KC AC 10H QH And he PASSES again. I made hearts holding I made hearts 9H QC AD QD AS 9H. You held AH KH KS JD 10D and I was euchred. Definitely not a euchre hand at S1!

But the bottom line here is Pass on a Biddable hand with nothing to run to, kills your partner's bidding, most of the time!
Yep. I see the hand: https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Wasn't calling you a liar. I stand by my original statement. So now I would assume Don misclicked--something that's easy to do on that site--unless Don says otherwise.
irishwolf wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:59 am
I can give you more but like me holding 3 in next at S3 and the suit is crossed at S1 resulting in a euchre. So be careful of what you say. Let's move on.
Of course. That will happen from time to time. No strategy is prefect.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:18 pm

Let’s visualize this hand: Up (Card_9-S)
Don S1 (Card_9-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-H)
Wolf S2 (Card_9-H) (Card_Q-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-S)
Wes S3 (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_K-S) (Card_J-D) (Card_10-D)
Rich S4 (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D)
R1 S1,2,3 pass no problem
S4,Rich, me passes up a biddable hand (1 klick above edge hand unknown opponents) but 2 klicks above a biddable hand, adjusting for the knowledge of Wes’ approach to R1 S3 (showing the possible weakness of adjusting for opponents). Reasonable but debatable.
R2 S1, Don passes a hand I would order as an edge hand (unknown opponents) but perhaps passes because he is adjusting to S3, Wes aggressive ordering. Reasonable but debatable.
S2, Wolf orders Hearts, passing on a stronger Diamond Reverse-Next. I cannot understand your order.
Wolf, am I missing something?

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:15 pm

I did not put out for discussion. Green is the call, if I don't have hearts, GUESS WHO SHOULD?

S2, Wolf orders Hearts, passing on a stronger Diamond Reverse-Next. I cannot understand your order.
Wolf, am I missing something?

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:29 pm

So to clarify, “green is the call,” means that S2, you, Wolf, should call Diamonds or Hearts. We can agree that a Green call is superior to a Next call. Please clarify why a Singleton 9h is superior to Ad Qd, in this scenario. That is the premise of your conclusion. That is a fair question.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:04 am

Starting from the point of the upcard and we are down 8 to 3. At this score you Can't pass with 3 trumps and a doubleton. The reason I even passed was not to ruin a possible loner attempt. But you passed, be it a misclick or what ever.

S1 should have made next but did not. So now it's my decision. I CAN'T PASS. So the call is diamonds or hearts. I chose hearts because there are 6 UNKNOWN TRUMPS! My two aces are worth 1.75 to 2.00 tricks. And diamonds is about the same but not considering how many hearts you SHOULD have. But since you passed on spades which takes the place of Slots for hearts it reduces the probability of having hearts.
So do I need to spell out the probability of having 1, 2 or 3 trumps with six unknown, me having one? Bottom line is down by 5 points the decision should almost never Pass! Yes green is the call as long as you are passing the upcard honestly not with a biddable hand as it upsets the whole process!

"So to clarify, “green is the call,” means that S2, you, Wolf, should call Diamonds or Hearts. We can agree that a Green call is superior to a Next call. Please clarify why a Singleton 9h is superior to Ad Qd, in this scenario."

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:06 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:18 pm
Let’s visualize this hand: Up (Card_9-S)
Don S1 (Card_9-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-H)
Wolf S2 (Card_9-H) (Card_Q-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-S)
Wes S3 (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_K-S) (Card_J-D) (Card_10-D)
Rich S4 (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D)
R1 S1,2,3 pass no problem
S4,Rich, me passes up a biddable hand (1 klick above edge hand unknown opponents) but 2 klicks above a biddable hand,

As far as your play, I would advise to never consider passing 3 trump unless you have a euchre hand, maybe consider passing some stopper hands that have a Next call in trouble also if S1 loves to call Next. With your hand, having 3 trump-two suited, blocking no suits, a pass is downright criminal. Don't do it. So there's more to this hand than just its intrinsic offensive value. Don't forget the defensive value, and lastly don't forget what Irishwolf said, "But the bottom line here is Pass on a Biddable hand with nothing to run to, kills your partner's bidding, most of the time!" When you pass non-euchre/non-stopper biddable hands you often set your partner up to fail in the 2nd round. That's a real cost too.
Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:18 pm
S1, Don passes a hand I would order as an edge hand (unknown opponents)

Don's hand is not an edge hand, It's a premium Next call compared to what our overall range should be when we don't block reverse Next. Don has a 3 trump-two suited hand. Not only does he not block reverse next, he has no diamonds. He should be scared to death to pass in this spot. Passing here is also a criminal offense. I still suspect Don misclicked.
Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:18 pm
but perhaps passes because he is adjusting to S3, Wes aggressive ordering. Reasonable but debatable.

This theory makes no sense. The proper adjustment to my S3 range would be to call Next more loosely, not to pass strong Next hands.
Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:18 pm
, Wolf orders Hearts, passing on a stronger Diamond Reverse-Next. I cannot understand your order.
Wolf, am I missing something?
I don't understand it either. Diamonds is the clear best call with that hand, but then if IW asked me to prove it, I can't.

Either way, we definitely need to cut this hand out of the OhioEuchre Monday night highlight reel!

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:45 am

S4, Rich, I, made a bad pass. I got caught up in over analyzing the hand and reached 2 erroneous decisions.

The simplified guidance, for me in particular, is trust your simple analysis more than your extended analysis. Another way to say it, if you find yourself going into deep analysis, use your simple analysis as a smell test.

Both Wolf & Wes emphatically pointed out that I passed on a callable hand. My analysis was the same but by over adjusting to Wes’ style from S3, I mistakenly passed. Wes’ style of play is not nearly as important as the cards in my hand. S4, 3 trump, 2-suited is 2-3 steps above a callable hand. That was mistake 1. Wolf, posted that the score was 3-8, against our team, and was a reason to loosen up calling. I distinctly remember thinking that Opp had 8 and I should tighten up calling! Obviously, being down by 5 is more important than avoiding euchre and having the game end. I should have loosened and called. That was mistake 2.

Fortunately, these errors were exposed on this forum. Thank you IrishWolf and Wes for redirecting me.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:07 pm

Not mentioned here but on the previous hand, you at eldest, clubs went down and you called Hearts with three hearts (no bower ace high) no off suit aces (two suits clubs and low diamond), crossed the suit. You got euchred as Wes had both bowers. I was strong in Next. You had no next, but guess what, it's Hoyle and most likely your partner has Next.

You can cross the suit but must have close to 3.00 hand not counting on your partner, your had was at best 2.0. There is a time and place to do that but not at that score. I think it may have clouded your thinking, made you think twice on the next hand.

No big deal!

Just note that experience is the best teacher. What ever errors, we have all made them on our journey in euchre.

As to my call in hearts what made it result in a euchre was the two passes on biddable hands, both in black (spades and clubs) turns Hoyle on its ear. This is what I call getting out of Sync with your partner. It also occurs when a player Bags from the seat. So one has to think twice but not over think the cards.

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:22 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:07 pm
Not mentioned here but on the previous hand, you at eldest, clubs went down and you called Hearts with three hearts (no bower ace high) no off suit aces (two suits clubs and low diamond), crossed the suit. You got euchred as Wes had both bowers. I was strong in Next. You had no next, but guess what, it's Hoyle and most likely your partner has Next.


Here's the hand: https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Richard's team is down 6-3. I turned down the (Card_K-C)

Richard is in S1 with: (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D) (Card_10-C)

There's no way in hell I'm passing on a hearts call in that spot. Is it becuz I wanna call hearts? No. It's cuz I gotta call hearts. There's not a play Richard can make in this spot that is not gonna cost his team points. Passing is -EV, calling hearts is -EV, and calling Next with no trump + a tripleton Ace is -EV. All Richard can do here is choose the play that costs his team the least. I'd bet a lot of money that a hearts call will cost less than passing when we only block 1 out of 3 remaining suits, and I'd bet a lot of money that jumping the fence with 3 hearts will lose less in the long run vs calling Next with no trump + a tripleton Ace. This is what I mean when I say that to a degree you don't really get to choose your hand in euchre. It's not like poker where you have all the time in the world, can play tight, and wait for a good spot. Time is always running out when you're playing euchre.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:07 pm
You can cross the suit but must have close to 3.00 hand not counting on your partner, your had was at best 2.0. There is a time and place to do that but not at that score. I think it may have clouded your thinking, made you think twice on the next hand.
I also would just ignore reasoning like the above becuz it's near useless if not dangerous. You can't judge a hand in a vacuum. You have to compare the EV of calling to the EV of the other choices Richard has. Of course calling hearts is probably a losing play. Of course we would all love to go with Hoyle everything else being equal. But sometimes you're stuck with 3 bad choices, and you have to make the best of it. Worthy of note. Watching the best players on the app I play on, they are all calling hearts in this spot (not cuz they wanna, cuz they gotta). Same with the 4 other top players, including Edward, in my tournament. They are all making the same sad hearts call. Now that doesn't prove calling hearts is correct--only a simulation could do that--but what other strong players do is some pretty decent evidence.

Also, the idea that we should not call hearts "at that score" is ludicrous to me. Ok, so we're down 6-3. Life sux. Does that somehow mean we shouldn't choose the highest EV option? No.

This is also why I can't stand playing with "hoyle loyal" players on the app becuz they end up passing on hearts calls like this, when they don't block much, setting their team up to fail. Seat 1 has one obligation: do what's best for your team. Once you violate that obligation in the name of Hoyle you've went too far. Hoyle is a very useful guideline. It's not meant to be treated as a religion you rigidly adhere to.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:40 pm

FOOLISH giving advice like that. Call next.

Do you have any facts to support your foolishness?

There's no way in hell I'm passing on a hearts call in that spot. Is it becuz I wanna call hearts? No. It's cuz I gotta call hearts.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:57 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:40 pm
FOOLISH giving advice like that. Call next.

Do you have any facts to support your foolishness?
You really think calling Next with no trump + a tripleton ace is better than crossing the river with 3 trump. Come on man.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:36 pm

First of all, the hand had no bowers, no aces of two singletons. Euchre rate crossing like that will have a high -EV rate. As to calling with no trump, you have done it as I have observed. And so have I. You have to know when it's correct! It's under the Principle, You Have A Partner. I guarantee the EV will be higher under the circumstances as well! It's pretty well clear S4 does not have a black Jack. Who might have it or buried? This is not rocket science - Duh.

You really think calling Next with no trump + a tripleton ace is better than crossing the river with 3 trump....

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:40 am

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:40 pm
Do you have any facts to support your foolishness?
Let's keep something in mind here. You are the one telling Richard his call was wrong. And you are the one making the extraordinary claim that calling Next with no trump + a tripleton off ace is a better call than crossing the river with 3 trump. I don't need "facts" to call BS. You're the one making the extraordinary claim. You're the one advocating for a strategic choice I have never seen a strong player make, as I have never seen a strong player call next with no trump + a tripleton Ace when he had 3 trump in another suit to run to. In fact, in the over 20K+ games I've played, I have never seen ANYONE, let alone a strong player, make that strategic choice. So the burden of proof is squarely on you here my friend. And I know you can't meet that burden, as you don't have that mythical euchre simulator either.

And of course not being able to meet that burden of proof doesn't necessarily mean you're wrong, and it doesn't bother me one bit that I can't prove you wrong for the same reason I'm not bothered by the fact that I can't prove to a paranormal believer ghosts don't exist. My goal here is more humble than that: I don't want Richard or anyone else calling hearts in that spot to think they are making a clear mistake. I at least want them to think it's close/debatable. That's the only victory I need.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:36 pm
First of all, the hand had no bowers, no aces of two singletons. Euchre rate crossing like that will have a high -EV rate.
I know this is not an ideal call. And btw every strong player that makes this call--I haven't met one that doesn't call hearts in this spot--are all Hoyle players, including myself. It's a sad call that we'd prefer not to make, but we make it anyways becuz it's the best choice out of a set of bad choices. The euchre gods can be cruel like that.

If I had to guess at the expected outcome of this hearts call, I suppose I would conservatively assume a 50% euchre rate (I don't actually think it's that high), a 5% 2 point rate and a 45% 1 point rate:

EO: (.5 x -2) + (.45 x 1) + (.05 x 2) = -.45

Now the only person I know who has done simulations on calling Next with no trump and published his work is Eric Zalas. So let's take a look at those hands:
Hand 212: Dearler turns down the Queen of hearts. Seat #1 holds the Ace-9 of hearts. Ace of spades, and the Ace-Q of clubs. Seat #1 names "next" or diamonds trump. N = 429

(Card_A-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_Q-C)

E0 = -.744
Hand 213: Dealer turns down 9 of clubs. Seat #1 holds the Ace-Q of diamonds, the Ace-Q of clubs, and the 9 of hearts. Seat #1 names "next" and plays spades trump with no trump. N = 207

(Card_A-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_9-H)

EO = -.758
Hand 214: Dealer turns down the 9 of hearts. Seat #1 holds the Ace-K of hearts, Ace of clubs, and the 10-9 of spades. Seat #1 names "next" and plays diamonds trump. N = 281

(Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-S)

EO = -.843
Hand 219: Dealer turns down 9 of hearts. Seat #1 holds the A-10 of hearts, Ace-10 of spades, and the 10 of clubs. Seat #1 names "next" (diamonds trump) leads the Ace of spades. N = 301

(Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-C)

EO = -1.050
Hand 221: Dealer turns down the 9 of diamonds. Seat #1 holds the Ace-Q of spades, Ace of diamonds, and the 10-9 of clubs. Seat #1 names "next" and plays hearts trump. N = 435

(Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_A-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)

EO = -1.221
Notice something. All those no trump Next calls are stronger than the Next call you're advocating, and yet they all have a much worse EO than crossing the river in hearts with 3 trump even at an assumed 50% euchre rate!
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:40 pm
As to calling with no trump, you have done it as I have observed.

That's irrelevant. Stop with the useless generalizations. Every hand is its own universe. I have never called with no trump in this spot becuz in my estimation that would be an absurd call.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:40 pm
You have to know when it's correct! It's under the Principle, You Have A Partner. I guarantee the EV will be higher under the circumstances as well! It's pretty well clear S4 does not have a black Jack. Who might have it or buried? This is not rocket science - Duh.
You're talking out of your ass man. The math that's been done on this spot, and thus the evidence we have on this spot, strongly suggests that a hearts call will do significantly better. This evidence + the fact that every strong player I know bites the bullet and calls hearts in this situation is a compelling combination pointing in one clear direction.

Now I would bet a lot of money that I'm right on this. That calling hearts is the best play out of a set of bad choices. But I don't need to be right. All I want is for Richard and others making this marginal call to know there's no good reason for them to believe they are wrong.

Note: One may wonder, does Eric Zalas have any simulations on crossing the river with a 3 non-bower trump, 3 suited, no off ace hand? Sadly, I couldn't find one that matches that description. However I did find one hand that came close (it's two suited, not 3 suited):
Hand 197: Dealer turns down the Queen of hearts. Seat #2 holds the King-Q-10 of clubs, and the Jack-10 of diamonds. Seat #2 names clubs trump.
N = 336

(Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_J-D) (Card_10-D)

EO: -.268

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 am

Wes you seriously suffer from CONFIRMATION BIAS! It is you blind spot. I have observed this many times with your conclusions as to your answers for your Quiz, the thread on the two Jacks among others. You have a serious issue with looking at both sides of an issue Fairly! Examples in this thread where you provided NO data to the other side of the equation. Serious, why would you not provide support in the way of hands played etc? You should seriously think about it for your own good.

As to the the hands you show by Eric, leaves a lot to be desired as you have already acknowledged yourself. All of Eric's data is from Robots, ordering & playing without regard to how Hoyle players play or intuition. Not to mention Programmed as he would play, who does not know how to play.

I can confidently say I have called trump with Great success making Next on little or nothing! I have nothing more to add unless you provide some evidence of your Claims. You are hopeless.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:27 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:17 am
Wes you seriously suffer from CONFIRMATION BIAS! It is you blind spot. I have observed this many times with your conclusions as to your answers for your Quiz, the thread on the two Jacks among others. You have a serious issue with looking at both sides of an issue Fairly! Examples in this thread where you provided NO data to the other side of the equation. Serious, why would you not provide support in the way of hands played etc? You should seriously think about it for your own good.

As to the the hands you show by Eric, leaves a lot to be desired as you have already acknowledged yourself. All of Eric's data is from Robots, ordering & playing without regard to how Hoyle players play or intuition. Not to mention Programmed as he would play, who does not know how to play.

I can confidently say I have called trump with Great success making Next on little or nothing! I have nothing more to add unless you provide some evidence of your Claims. You are hopeless.
At the end of the day all one can do is comport their beliefs with the evidence. If the evidence is super strong, then one can feel very strong about something. If the evidence is super weak, then one can believe but with reservations. The evidence we get is usually not gonna be perfect. That's just the way life is--life is messy like that--but nevertheless if we wish to be rational we cannot throw out the best evidence we have becuz it "leaves a lot to be desired". Eric Zalas' work, flaws and all, is the best evidence we have that calling Hearts in this spot is better than calling with no trump and then when you combine that evidence with the fact that every strong player I know (admittingly it's not a ton of people) would also call hearts in this spot (all Hoyle players btw), it makes a pretty compelling case imo.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:48 pm

Doing a 100 hand test of the three heart 2 singletons hand Richard had and the hand I had result ed in a euchre rate of 80% (-1.4 EV) as both Jacks + 2 trumps and all three off suit aces were against the maker.

Should have passed as S2 would have passed or called next.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:23 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:48 pm
Doing a 100 hand test of the three heart 2 singletons hand Richard had and the hand I had result ed in a euchre rate of 80% (-1.4 EV) as both Jacks + 2 trumps and all three off suit aces were against the maker.

Should have passed as S2 would have passed or called next.
Euchre rate of 80%? Lol come on man. It aint the greatest hand, but it's still 3 trump and it's not getting euchred 80% of the time. I mean yes, in Richard's spot his Heart call is doomed, but that's not relevant. The implied claim is that crossing the river with Richard's type of hand will lose less than passing or calling Next with no trump + a tripleton Ace. If I had to guess I would say:

Heart call > Passing > calling Next

Eric Zalas' work strongly suggests crossing the river with 3 trump will beat out calling Next with no trump + a tripleton off ace. The fact that every strong player I know is calling hearts in that spot is also another piece of evidence. Without said mythical euchre simulator this combo of evidence is as compelling as it's gonna get. If that doesn't blow your hair back then there's no where else to go from here.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:27 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:48 pm
Doing a 100 hand test of the three heart 2 singletons hand Richard had and the hand I had result ed in a euchre rate of 80% (-1.4 EV) as both Jacks + 2 trumps and all three off suit aces were against the maker.

Both Jacks + 2 trumps + all three off suit aces will not always be against Richard. Come on. What is with this weak sauce analysis.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:48 pm
Should have passed as S2 would have passed or called next.
You are aware that Richard is not psychic.......right?

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:40 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:48 pm
Doing a 100 hand test of the three heart 2 singletons hand Richard had and the hand I had result ed in a euchre rate of 80% (-1.4 EV) as both Jacks + 2 trumps and all three off suit aces were against the maker.
BTW I feel like you're inadvertently promoting a hearts call. The fact that a hearts call still somehow survive 20% of the time with all that against it really shows the power of having 3 trump.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:30 pm

You don't have to be a psychic. All hearts and no defense against Diamond loner, must call Next. As simple as that! One could easily surmise S2 or S4 did not have the JC either. All the facts add up to Next or Pass.

irishwolf wrote: ↑
Should have passed as S2 would have passed or called next.

You are aware that Richard is not psychic.......right?

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:45 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:30 pm
You don't have to be a psychic. All hearts and no defense against Diamond loner, must call Next. As simple as that!

The correct logic is, "no defense against a Diamond loner", therefore we must call something veering towards Next. I.E. if it's close we go with Hoyle. In this case it is NOT close. We have 3 trump in Hearts vs no trump + 1 tripleton off ace in Next. So hearts is the call. "As simple as that!"
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:30 pm
One could easily surmise S2 or S4 did not have the JC either.

Everybody is aware of this dynamic--like every strong player that calls hearts here knows this--that the JC is most likely not in S2 or S4's hands. That is why we go with Hoyle when it's close.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:30 pm
All the facts add up to Next or Pass.
Making up facts does not make an argument. Again, the evidence we DO have on this spot strongly suggests that Hearts is the call.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:08 pm

WRONG, proof is in the pudding. Point in Spades.

I think you have a lose screw, really. Always have to have the last word, whether it makes sense or not.

Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:20 pm

Wolf, I would cross the river and call hearts again. Wes, I do test my BPS approach and based on my experience, I have close to a 65% success rate with similar situations to this hand. (The huge variable, is that my experience, is against weak competition. My conclusions would probably change if I played Wes/Irish/Dlan competition consistently. BTW, Kristen plays great too!)

Calling Next, “according to Hoyle”, has its limitations. In fact OE (paraphrased) says you will look psychic or fail dramatically!” Translating that into probabilities, Next will look psychic 80% of the time and absolutely embarrass you 20% of the time.

I ran into 2 bowers and 3 trump owned by Wes. Even adverse distribution of 2 Bowers, would normally been eliminated by my trump lead (remember I’m in S1). P, S3, had 0 trump. That happens rarely. Sorry, card distribution beat me, not the logic of my order. Let me rhyme with Wes, Next, Hoyle, is important but not omnipotent. Our argument is about how important Is Hoyle. Omnipotent is not reasonable.

Wolf, getting euchred on this Hand probably made me play less intelligently (often misconstrued as aggressively, I was simply scared of failure), on the hand, that started this post. That reflects how important emotions are in the game of Euchre.

Logically, Next has value, but limited value. At what point do superior card combinations have greater value than Next? BPS assigns 0.75 points (0.60 tricks), to Next from S1 R2. Hoyle is not perfect, not omnipotent. I am open to debating the value but following “Hoyle” 100% of the time makes no sense. Personally, I have to order based on the cards in my hand and other observable factors. Crossing the river with 3 trump (and zero in Next) is observable. Calling Next with zero cards in Next and a legitimate alternative is not rational, IMO.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:53 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:08 pm
WRONG, proof is in the pudding. Point in Spades.
Dude. Why are you peddling this results oriented pablum.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:08 pm
I think you have a lose screw, really. Always have to have the last word, whether it makes sense or not.
Look, when I think you're right I'll be your greatest ally. When you're wrong I'll be your worst enemy. That's the way it's always gonna be. Dont take it personally.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:36 am

Now Richard, if that were true you would not have passed on the succeeding hand. And guess what, you are still in Euchre Pampers! It was the wrong call all the way. Be it advised for Future, cross the suit YOU CAN'T DO IT BUT DO NOT COUNT ON YOUR PARTNER!

Logically, Next has value, but limited value. At what point do superior card combinations have greater value than Next? BPS assigns 0.75 points (0.60 tricks), to Next from S1 R2. Hoyle is not perfect, not omnipotent. I am open to debating the value but following “Hoyle” 100% of the time makes no sense. Personally, I have to order based on the cards in my hand and other observable factors

Post Reply