THE AGGRESSIVE EUCHRE PLAYER

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irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

THE AGGRESSIVE EUCHRE PLAYER

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:00 pm

Concerning the aggressive euchre player on "making trump", have you done any analysis as to the number of "euchres" that result from making trump, which includes Donates?

If you get euchred once what is your probability of winning?

How about twice or three times or more what chance of winning?

Have to done a "break even" or Expect Value or outcome?

Perhaps donating should be considered separately?

What is your strategy with respect to calling vs getting euchred?



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:34 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:00 pm
Concerning the aggressive euchre player on "making trump", have you done any analysis as to the number of "euchres" that result from making trump, which includes Donates?

On the Karman games app, I know my euchre rate has been hovering around 25-26% of the time (that's including donates) over the last so many thousands of games and I'm very happy with my results. However, I believe with better partners, and no "go under" option, my euchre rate would probably be around 20%, but that's just a guess. So If I had to guess at some kind of optimal euchre rate (including donates), I suppose it would be somewhere around 20-25%.
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:00 pm
If you get euchred once what is your probability of winning?

How about twice or three times or more what chance of winning?

I think these are the wrong questions to ask, becuz the answers are completely irrelevant. All one can do, theoretically, is make the most correct decisions possible. It is often the case you'll be in games when you're forced to make a lot of marginal calls, situations where your EV is either close to zero or slightly negative but you gotta call becuz the EV of passing is worse. Naturally if things don't go your way, you'll get euchred 3 or 4 times, and rarely (like 1 out of 10K games I suspect) you'll get euchred 5 times and if your partner doesn't know you they will hate you forever :)
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:00 pm
Have to done a "break even" or Expect Value or outcome?

To me this is the question that matters, becuz ultimately math is the answer. And as best I can, all my decisions are based on the math, but the problem is the mathematical evidence I have for many of the decisions I make is still not very strong, so the probability that I am making mistakes somewhere is 100%. I need that mythical euchre simulator to make the next "great leap" in my euchre play, and if I ever had that simulator I'd probably lose my gf over it cuz that is all I would do lol. I remember back in the day with poker when I made my great leap. It was when I got to look at some large databases of some strong players. That helped my game big time. I think a euchre simulator could have the same effect.

Anyways, to me that's how every euchre hand should be approached: is the EV of calling greater than the EV of passing. If so then call, if not than pass. Very simple, yet there will be tons of rational debate on any hand becuz the math will never be that precise and there will always be assumptions people may disagree on.
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:00 pm
Perhaps donating should be considered separately?

Probably. Since donating is inherently controversial, it probably should be treated separately.
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:00 pm
What is your strategy with respect to calling vs getting euchred?
As best one can, follow the math. The math is all that matters. It all comes down to what has the higher EV, calling or passing. If I don't have the math, then I'm forced to use my faulty intuition, which can still mislead someone even with a lot of experience. And naturally I'll also ask other strong players how they approach certain situations to help guide me.

PS: Sometimes people will say to me, there's more to euchre than just math. What about player psychology, the logic of a hand, etc. And I would tell them our disagreement is an illusion. Human psychology and logic are embedded in the assumptions of any EV calc. There is no conflict. It's all unified. It HAS to be.

RedDuke
Posts: 393
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:57 am

I'm not as aggressive as Wes, but I agree with his analysis. Getting euchred about 20-25% of hands is reasonable.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm

Yes, Agreed, the EV is important and more important is the actual outcome of the hand in question if you got euchred. Was it borderline situation or of a statistical anomaly?

And every time you get euchred, the EV "that time was negative" and having confidence the EV is positive in the long-run is critical. However, 20 to 25% euchre rate is spotting the opponents 2 to 3 points on the average. (So Wes, what is your win rate percentage on Karman?) In order to win at 20 - 25% euchre rate, if that is with regularity, you have to then combat luck running the other way and those euchres too. I don't know if any player is good enough to over come two euchres a game on a regular basis? We know good players make their own luck, sometimes with good decisions, so that would have to important when giving up too many points. I am not sure what the euchre rate is for being declared excessive, TBD?

And sure the "correct" Donate is also critical, provided it was valid that a successful loner would have been made. Just to donate because you have a bad hand does not consider the hand your partner has. It's all about 10 cards, NOT five. And one can afford TWO validated donates being equal to a successful loner as the breakeven point. Knowing that a loner is normally successful 1 in 3 or 4 attempts has to be factored in the equation. Even at the score of 9 to 6 or 7, donating can result in the donating team as loss about 25 to 30% of the time. The dealers advantage 65 to 70%. The score of 9 to 6 is far of more less a risky business than donating 9 to 7 for obvious reasons. Again I would say, TBD?

I think there might be more to the question(s) proposed which is the essence of euchre? It's more than a causal discussion,IMO. I want my cake and eat it too!

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:25 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
Yes, Agreed, the EV is important and more important is the actual outcome of the hand in question if you got euchred. Was it borderline situation or of a statistical anomaly?

See that's where I disagree. I don't care about the outcome of any hand. And I don't care whether I win or lose. The only thing that matters to me is whether my decision was correct or not. If I feel that I made the right decision, getting euchred doesn't matter to me. It's kinda like poker. If I play 4-8 holdem and lose $500 but every decision I made was correct, I'm perfectly happy. If I win $1,000 but make two critical errors, all I will think about are those errors for the next so many days. Results are just noise to me.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
And every time you get euchred, the EV "that time was negative" and having confidence the EV is positive in the long-run is critical.

Of course, one has to have confidence in what they're doing. This will help them stay the course when they run bad. The only way to get this confidence is to constantly study the game.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
However, 20 to 25% euchre rate is spotting the opponents 2 to 3 points on the average. (So Wes, what is your win rate percentage on Karman?) In order to win at 20 - 25% euchre rate, if that is with regularity, you have to then combat luck running the other way and those euchres too. I don't know if any player is good enough to over come two euchres a game on a regular basis? We know good players make their own luck, sometimes with good decisions, so that would have to important when giving up too many points. I am not sure what the euchre rate is for being declared excessive, TBD?

When I play on the Karman games app, I create a new account every time I reach that perfect ranking of 100 (5 crowns). The goal of each new account is to reach 100 before a 1,000 games. Under 1,000 games = good. Under 700 games = excellent. Under 500 games = Jedi.

It may sound easy but it's tough becuz you are almost always playing with partners who sabotage you, and the go under rule means it is often the case that the Kitty can't save you, and you'll often be up against opponent ranges that are significantly stronger than they should be cuz they got to go under. If you get on one of those streaks where your opponents are going under before almost every one of your calls the game gets extremely tough and the euchres quickly pile up. Anyways, I actually have the numbers for the last 8 accounts I've made. Here's my average stats over the last 5,197 games/8 accounts on Karman:

Games played per account: 649.63
Call rate: 38.48%
Euchre rate: 25.76%
Alone: 7.65%
Alone euchre rate: 6.28%
Win %: 57.15%

I am very happy with those numbers. Averaging under 700 games per account is outstanding for that app. A 57.15% win rate with usually bad partners and the "go under" problem, is excellent too. Anywhere between 55-60% win% is elite on that app imo. I have a total of 33 accounts at 100, only 1 of them went over 1000 games. My first account. I've seen good players take over 2000 games to get to a 100. I also have the unofficial app record of getting to 100/5 crowns in just 371 games. No one I've talked to has done better.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
However, 20 to 25% euchre rate is spotting the opponents 2 to 3 points on the average.
BTW I have no stats on my real life play, but I can still make a really strong deduction. I've been playing in my Vegas tournament over the last 2.5 years. I have the unofficial euchre record in one night of 12. 12 euchres over 6 games, an avg of 2 euchres a game, and I've only hit that number once in 2.5 years. If I had to made a good deduction from that, I would say I probably average somewhere between 1 to 1.5 euchres a game when I play live. I don't know for sure what it is, but it can't be close to 2 euchres a game given that I've only reached 12 euchres once. All I know is whatever my euchre rate is, it is by far the highest in the room. I'm well ahead of whoever's in 2nd, but it's not nearly as bad as my Karman games euchre rate (I also have the unofficial 2nd highest euchre rate on Karman fwiw). Now that said, even tho in real life I'm known as the wildman/crazy guy/idiot who gets euchred way too much, I still ran away with the Las Vegas euchre championship in my first year eligible. That's not a brag, just saying it's very hard to change my ways without hard data given how successful I've been on the app and in real life. Even Edward thinks I call too much and get euchred too much. But F*** him amirite :)

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
And sure the "correct" Donate is also critical, provided it was valid that a successful loner would have been made.
Whether one actually blocks a loner or not is irrelevant. If it was the correct decision that's all that matters. Now I'm not trying to be overly obtuse here. Certainly if I'm donating from a certain hand configuration and it feels like I'm barely ever actually blocking a loner, then of course I'm gonna reevaluate. So I'm not implying I ignore results. In the big picture without the actual math to fall back on, results will naturally refine my play.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
Just to donate because you have a bad hand does not consider the hand your partner has. It's all about 10 cards, NOT five.
Well yeah, but at the same time S1 gets to see 6 cards, and the onus is on him to use that incomplete information as best he can. Kinda like playing 7 card stud. You only get to see so many cards, and with that incomplete information you try to make the best decisions possible. In this sense, S3's hand is actually irrelevant. Either S1's donate is correct based on the 6 cards he can observe or it's not. Keep in mind tho S3's hand range will still be embedded in the theoretical math.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
Knowing that a loner is normally successful 1 in 3 or 4 attempts has to be factored in the equation.
Based on stats I've looked at, the average loner sweep rate is around 25% (but maybe it reaches to around 33% in real life without "go unders" idk), but this number is nearly useless. We are not donating in average scenarios. To use an extreme example to illustrate my point:

Dealer upcard (Card_J-C)

I'm in S1 with (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-S)

We can expect that the loner sweep rate will be significantly greater than 25%. And notice if my opponents just call their 2 point march rate will be much higher than usual given my nothing hand. Every time the enemy would've gotten a 2 point march if we pass means a donate costs us zero. This is why outside of 9-6/9-7 scenarios, whether I donate or not is really not about being unguarded. It's about asking myself this simple question: If I pass this hand, what are the chances my opponents will get 2 points on a call? If the odds are very high, then I donate knowing the cost of a donate will be theoretically low. IOW if they have a great chance at getting 2 points on a call I might as well stop an effective freeroll for a 4 point sweep. When you play enough games sometimes you can just look at your hand and "know" your opponents are gonna get 2 points. That's a bit of an exaggeration, but it is those hands that become the donating hands.

For example, say the score is 0-0, the upcard is the (Card_J-C)

I'm in S1 with:

(Card_A-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-S)

With 2 aces I'm not donating. The chance my opponents are getting 2 points on a call is not that high, and of course I do have decent defense vs a loner attempt.

Or if I had:

(Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-S)

I'm not donating. I like my chances of holding the enemy to 1 point with this holding, plus taking out 2 trump lowers the odds the dealer "has it".
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
Even at the score of 9 to 6 or 7, donating can result in the donating team as loss about 25 to 30% of the time. The dealers advantage 65 to 70%. The score of 9 to 6 is far of more less a risky business than donating 9 to 7 for obvious reasons. Again I would say, TBD?
I dogmatically always donate at up 9-6/9-7 if I'm not guarded, but I would never tell you I'm sure that is correct. In fact I would be very surprised if it was. But without any hard data, it's difficult to switch from that default. Either way, I totally agree that it's still in the "TBD" category.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 pm
I think there might be more to the question(s) proposed which is the essence of euchre? It's more than a causal discussion,IMO. I want my cake and eat it too!

~Irishwolf
I would just like to finish by saying there are A LOT of donates and other plays I make that I am still unsure about. I'll often say I need hard data to change some strategy, but that only refers to plays I'm very confident about (obviously I know I can still be wrong), but there are other plays I make that I'm so unsure about that it wouldn't take much of an argument to persuade me to change course. I'm constantly trying to refine my game, trying to question everything. I think that's the only way to be until this game gets mathematically solved.

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