WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

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irishwolf
Posts: 816
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:30 pm

The score is 8 to 9, you are at behind and it's your deal. The QD is the up card and you hold JH JD AC KC QS. This is a social game but with all good players, forget social graces.

Will you go alone?

Or take your partner along?

What is your reasoning for your decision as to winning the game?



irishwolf
Posts: 816
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:34 pm

I should add what this site says:

"Even if your team has 8 points, consider playing it alone. There are some circumstances where taking your partner along will hurt you. Consider whether you truly need your partner's help. Say you hold both bars and the ace of trump, along with a king-queen combination. Your partner cannot help, even if they did hold the ace."

What do you think?

~Irishwolf

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:47 pm

I would go alone. There is no club that could be in P’s hand that could help. There is no trump that could be in P’s hand that could help.

irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:24 am

Actually Richard you have a better chance for two points taking your partner along. And this website is incorrect as well.

Although your statement seems to be correct, you have to consider how the eldest proceeds to stop a loner vs leading when not going alone. Thus recommended to hold your off suit ace! If going alone, eldest holds his off suit ace, he now leads to one of the other two off suits, one of which is the club suit. If you take your partner along, you have three suits in play.

If taking your partner along, their is better odds that eldest would lead his only ace (but not always), and this is exactly what the dealer prefers. Yes, your partner could trump a club lead, (low chance) but this is not all bad either. Suppose your partner trumped a club lead, he can now lead to you void suit.

Even if your partner trumps one of the other two suits with the 9 or 10, you can go over this with your queen. If he trumps high, no big deal, slough your KC, not the AC, as he may think you are now void in clubs. He now leads one of the other two suits and you can cover whatever 3rd seat plays. Eldest now not only has to have a void but has to have a trump higher than your Queen.

So the issue is not that your partner has no club, it what the 1st seat approaches to stopping a loner vs when not going alone. You have been odds of completing your sweep than going alone.


"There is no club that could be in P’s hand that could help. There is no trump that could be in P’s hand that could help."

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:53 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:47 pm
I would go alone. There is no club that could be in P’s hand that could help. There is no trump that could be in P’s hand that could help.
I would have gone alone too, but Irishwolf's argument is compelling enough for me to switch strategies.

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:42 pm

Score 8-9. I am S4 (Dealer). Up Card (Card_Q-D)
I hold:
(Card_J-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-S)
I recommend going Lone and after I discard, I hold:
(Card_J-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C)
Options for Eldest (S1):
Leads a club:
I use my (Card_A-C) but the chance that S3 trumps:
23% (Void) x 50% has a trump (WAG, wild ass guess) x 1/3 (1 of 3 suits)= 3.8%
Leads heart or diamond:
I use my (Card_Q-D) and will lead on the next 2 tricks:
(Card_J-D) (Card_J-H) But the chance that Opp has 3 trumps:
4/16 x 3/15 x (2/15 + 2/15)
0.25 x 0.20 x 0.267 = 1.3 %, actually a tad lower
Odds of not getting 5 tricks 5.1%
Chance of taking 5 tricks, 94.9%
That is close enough to a 95% chance of success relying on plays that I control, for me to go for it. IMO.

I appreciate your deeper analysis IrishWolf. My simpleton approach just concludes that I am better off avoiding all that analysis.

irishwolf
Posts: 816
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:37 pm

You calculations are way off.

For example, for clubs only, yes a void is 23.4%. Then has a trump is 76.6%. So it's about 1 in 5 chance to trump a club lead. Clubs is the suit of interest if a club is led. Granted a spade or heart could be led but you eliminate one by taking your partner along, statistically.

Go alone, S1 will not lead his off suit AS or AH and makes the club suit more vulnerable. Take your partner he most likely will. Chances are if S1 has the QC he might lead it but not the 9C or 10C. Chance of having or leading the QC 1c1 17c4 18c5 is 28%. But take your partner alone and he will lead the AS or AH or if has a singleton KH or KS that would lead it.

The probability of S1 having the AS or AH or both is approximately 50%. Again, it says, do not go alone. Take all those odds that favor a sweep.

But do as you may as it still has a good chance of a sweep, but not as good as taking your partner. Old habits are hard to break.


23% (Void) x 50% has a trump (WAG, wild ass guess) x 1/3 (1 of 3 suits)= 3.8%

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:00 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:37 pm
Go alone, S1 will not lead his off suit AS or AH and makes the club suit more vulnerable. Take your partner he most likely will.
Yep, this is the take home message.

Richard, remember that quote from the FTOP wikipage:
Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundament ... m_of_poker
The logic behind the FTOP applies to all card games involving incomplete information. When you go alone, S1 will now not lead his single Aces, which makes him more likely to lead a Club. IOW, the best possible lead for your holding is for S1 to lead an Ace. The worst possible lead for your holding is for S1 to lead a club. When you go alone you are inducing S1 to play more correctly FTOP-wise. When you just call you induce S1 to play more incorrectly FTOP-wise. Now of course when you just call, once in a blue moon this strategy will backfire. We can all imagine how. But that's a very rare event. The value of all the times you induce the enemy to play their hand "incorrectly" will outweigh the rare times this strategy backfires. So do what you can to get S1 to lead that Ace. Don't go alone and ruin a very favorable dynamic just becuz you fear a extremely rare event.

Richardb02
Posts: 633
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:06 pm

I greatly appreciate the deep analysis from IrishWolf, Wes and a handful of others. Please always remember that.

When I am posting, I am not challenging your analysis (exceptions apply obviously) but I am usually explaining my simplified approach.

I am trying to generate more posting by aiming my response to the other 98% of registered users.

That is based on only playing this game for 28 months, about 3200 games experience, reading but not responding to posts for more than half of that time and approaching how to play this game based on most of my lifetime of making decisions based on the Pareto principal, good ol’ 80/20.

Instead of applying deep statistical analysis and FTOP, My goal has been to gain 80% of the skills for Euchre success, with 20% of the effort. That is a conscientious decision on my part because Euchre while very enjoyable, is not in my top 5 priorities.

My hope is that the 98% will learn that you can enjoy greater success at Euchre without a huge investment of time to studying and analyzing. I am still part of that 98%. I am just fearless enough to mix it up with Superior players. Perhaps others will post more often and even join us on Monday nights.

Again IrishWolf and Wes, I appreciate your deep dives into the intricacies of Euchre. Please appreciate my intentions to simplify strategies and tactics for my life style and hopefully attract the 98% into greater participation with Ohio Euchre.

irishwolf
Posts: 816
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:18 pm

Hey Richard, First is don't sell yourself short. In such a short time you have come a long way. I've observed your play and you are already better than 75% of the players. I think you should challenge any and all analysis. Not a problem for me. There is no such thing as a dumb question or challenge. Challenging allows for further analysis on points that may have been slighted or overlooked. So it's good.

Any field of interest, be it a hobby, social game or real life career requires dedicated attention and "deliberate practice" to master the subject. And just playing is not enough, it requires analysis. If a person's approach is haphazard, and causal, you get haphazard results. I post, not for my personal benefit or to feed my ego. I am way beyond that. It's only for the enjoyment of the game and to make others better. The greatest enjoyment for me is four good euchre players going at it. I post as well to stimulate the mental juices and to get more players into the game so it does not die as we discussed before.

What is surprising to me, and disappointing at the same time is that topics do not get much participation. I don't know why? Less than half a dozen people when hundreds visit Ohio Euchre. Sometimes I think, it's a waste of time to post because of the lack of participation. It's good that you are trying to generate more participation.

To those who visit OE, note that reading of a topic is not learning. You have to jump in, twist and turn the subject. It's work and thought provoking. I know sometimes a couple of us (me in particular gets carried away beyond general interest of many). My apologies to any and all. I hope discussing and disagreeing is not looked at as being "disagreeable." There is always room for disagreement as it requires a re-evaluation of the topic for acceptance or rejection to suit your own style. That is always a person's choice. There are many different styles and approaches to the game of euchre making it interesting. I am open to new and different approaches to the game. Always keep an open mind.

There use to be a euchre site on Yahoo, started about 2000 called Euchre Science. It was very active and had about 20 to 30 really good players that would discuss euchre and hands of interest. Much of the discussion started with the use of a topic in the form of a Euchre Poll where you voted as to what you would do. Then discussion of the results, players justifying why they chose a certain option. It was excellent but ES no longer exists. But that may be an option for OE to get more discussion and participation? Something for Don to consider if he is listening?

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:36 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:06 pm
Euchre while very enjoyable, is not in my top 5 priorities.
I can tell you're married. You have my deepest condolences.

RedDuke
Posts: 444
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:00 am

Pick it up, discard QS and take partner along. There's no club that your partner has that can help, but if eldest leads a red card (likely) and also has either the AS or KS, you won't take all five tricks. If your partner can take that red card though, you might be able to pull off the sweep and win.

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