irishwolf wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:32 pm
You changed the situation and the goal posts. So the answer now it ALL DEPENDS!
Depends on what you say?
1) Who's my partner and how does he/she play?
2) With a very skill partner and I know how they play (I will give a couple of examples):
a) They have no next in the event the JC is the only trump and will not use that Jack to over trump as well. Then play the I will play the QS.
b) Will pick it up with 9, 10 or Q and no aces. I will still play the QS.
c) Even if he has the JC/AC the QS is not a bad lead. He takes his choice to trump and lead (I lose the KC, so what, goal is to get out alive).
3) But if I have an unknown partner, or very conservative, I will lead the KC.
So one best answer here does not fit all. But number two is the best way for the dealer to pick it up thin. If I had the 9, 10, Q, or two trumps I am leading to my partner/
Very good post IW. I agree, with more conservative partners, tend to lead trump in this spot. But with aggressive partners I think leading the QS is best.
BTW, I tried to figure out the exact range make up of my hand when I pick up the Right at a neutral score. It was tedious, and a bit headache causing doing all the combos. I can only hope I didn't make any mistakes, but this is what I got. Here's my range breakdown when the Right is the upcard, and I just pick up without going alone:
First there's a total of (28,193 - 60 euchre hand combos = 28,133 combos) of hands I'm either calling with or going alone. Out of those combos I'm going alone with 10,849 combos. IOW I am going alone 10,849/28,133 = 38.56% of the time. Thus there are 28,133 - 10,849 = 17,284 hand combos that I'm just calling with, broken down thus:
Right + 0: 732 combos (4.24%)
Right + 1: 12,576 combos (72.76%)
3 trump: 3,576 combos (20.69%)
4 trump: 400 combos (2.31%)
Notes: 77% of the time I will have 2 trump or less. Of the 12,576 R+1 combos, 6006 of them I will have R+1 and no off aces (34.75% of my range). The 400 4 trump combos are those 4 trump + an off suit lower than a green jack or Next Ten, hands Eric Zalas' simulations suggest calling is better than going alone. Keep in mind this is my range at a neutral score. In the actual hand my team is down 6-2. At such a score I'm going alone with all Right + 3 combos with a few extra combos added from other hand configurations. So the above shows my range is pretty weak, and down 6-2 it will actually be a tad weaker than that.
In the actual hand Don chose to not lead trump. Instead he tried to find my void by leading the Qs. I know that Don has no voids, suggesting he should lead trump, but given how weak my range is I suspect that perhaps Don's line is STILL the best line despite the fact that he has no voids. I suspect it is but do not know, which is why I should've left the quiz part out of my thread title becuz it's hardly a quiz when I'm not sure about the answer!
This also leads to a bigger picture question beyond just this scenario where I'm picking up the Right. As the dealer I tend to go alone alot and call aggressively (I know Edward thinks I call too much lol). Which means when I don't go alone and just pick up, my range is gonna be pretty weak over all, especially when I have defensive calls in my range like say this spade call:
I pick that up becuz I don't block anything and try to eke out a point.
Given how weak my overall range is perhaps it's best to take Don's line and try to find my void when Don doesn't have much like in this hand. Altho I would argue if a trump lead could benefit Don's hand than he should lead trump, and I would hypothesize that if Don has one off ace backing him up then he should go ahead and lead trump. There's also other sticky scenarios where Don likely wont be able to get to my void.
Say Don has this hand after winning the diamond trick:
And say I played a

on the first lead suggesting I have another heart and am void in Spades. But Don doesn't have a spade and is thus stuck between double leading me Diamonds and putting me in a squeeze (can't do that) or leading a heart knowing that's a toxic lead too. Maybe in this scenario Don should say F it, I might as well lead trump now? Do you agree on that?
Do you agree that given how weak my range is that even with no voids, Don should not lead trump or do you still think he should?
BTW here's the actual hand:
https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D