Weekly games 02/03 Hand #2

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Dlan
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Weekly games 02/03 Hand #2

Unread post by Dlan » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:28 am

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You’re the dealer and turn up the QD. Bidding gets passed back around. Same question as in example 1, do you pass or call. Why?

FYI. I have updated the post on playing in our weekly games to include information on returning to the OE table.



irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:16 pm

Why would the dealer ever consider pass?

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:44 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:16 pm
Why would the dealer ever consider pass?
I guess the real question is, down 9-2, should the dealer go alone or call?

cgutowski
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Unread post by cgutowski » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:02 am

Definitely have to call. Don't think I'd go alone even at 9-2. If you partner is stacked with high trump they probably would have called so opponents very likely have at least one of the top 3 trump. Hope for 2 and some luck in the next couple hands.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:37 pm

cgutowski wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:02 am
Definitely have to call. Don't think I'd go alone even at 9-2. If you partner is stacked with high trump they probably would have called so opponents very likely have at least one of the top 3 trump. Hope for 2 and some luck in the next couple hands.
I went alone becuz I figured AdJdJh were all in the kitty. I was wrong. Seriously tho, there's no way to justify this loner attempt. Down 9-2 I was in dgaf mode trying to play heroball. Never enter dgaf mode and never play heroball in a team game. I know this, but sometimes the compulsive gambler inside gets the best of me. For sh**s and giggles let's look at some math.

First what's the probability that (Card_A-D) (Card_J-D) (Card_J-H) are all in the kitty:

(3C0 x 15C15)/18C15 = 1/816 = .1225%

How bout we assume that our partner has exactly one of AdJdJh. Say we assume he has the JH like in this hand. What's the probability of the other 2 cards being in the kitty? Well if we know that our P has the JH, then his other four cards are effectively exposed as non-JD/AD cards. The dealer has already seen 6 cards, so that's 11 total cards exposed or 24-11 = 13 unseen cards.

With that info we can figure out the probability that our enemy holds neither the Ad or Jd thus putting those cards in the kitty:

(2C0 x 11C10)/13C10 = 11/286 = 3.85%

What if we somehow knew our P had AdJh in his hand, what's the probability of the JD being in the kitty:

(1C0 x 12C10)/13C10 = 66/286 = 23.08%

Maaaaaybe it's worth it going alone down 9-6/9-7 if your partner is super passive (the type that's never calling with Left + 1 + an off Ace or just R+1) since there will be more of those 2 high trump cards in their range. Or even if your partner is a good aggressive player, it may be worth going alone down 9-6/9-7 if they purposely back off from calling with Left+1+off ace hands down 9-7/9-6 hoping you have that miracle loner. The question of whether S2 should back off those hands down 9-6/9-7 is ofc up for debate. Either way, this argument is a stretch but it's the only one I can muster that miiight be viable. That said, if S1 donates then no argument is viable.

Down 9-2 tho, I don't think there is an argument that can support going alone. It's just a bad play period. My partner is not passive so there will be very few 2 high trump cards in their range, and what's worse is S1 will donate, so when S1 passes up 9-2, having a hand like she had with Ad9dXXX is not a surprise.

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:27 am

I'd order this for the simple fact that I really have nothing better for round 2. Ordering gives me three trump. If I pass, I'm pretty much stuck with a weak clubs call if everybody passes round 2. Most likely though, first seat will call something in round 2 and it'll probably be something that I really don't want - plus if they can get 3 tricks, it's game over.

I don't think I'd go alone here. Two aces + 3 low trumps is just asking to be euchred on a lone attempt (and I've been euchred with far stronger hands than this), which is also game over. If my partner had good strength in diamonds, he would have ordered himself.

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