Weekly games 02/03 Hand #1

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Dlan
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Weekly games 02/03 Hand #1

Unread post by Dlan » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:27 am

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East seat deals and turns up the AD. In first seat, do you pass or call. Why?



Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:43 am

Definitely passing in the first round when I got both black bowers backing me up. Classic Seat 1 example of "don't call in the 1st rd when you have a 2nd rd hand". Bag the dealer instead. If the dealer passes, call black. In the 2nd rd, cant pass up a black call with two sure tricks when we dont block hearts. So call black, lead a diamond, and take it from there.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:14 pm

Of course pass, then on 2nd round go alone in spades or clubs.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:35 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:14 pm
Of course pass, then on 2nd round go alone in spades or clubs.
My M.O. here is to go alone down 9-6/9-7 or down alot, and just call otherwise. But after thinking about this more, I think my M.O. is wrong and Irishwolf is right!

Now at first I was thinking, ok this is obviously a math problem, and specifically we need to know how often the enemy will have the (Card_K-D) given that they passed on Diamonds and we need to know how often one of our enemies will have 3 clubs if we go alone in clubs or 3 spades if we go alone in spades. That's a lot of math to do, but you know what, I just don't think it's necessary. Sometimes you can just throw out a conservative assumption and work from that, and that can be all the insight one needs to "see the light".

Ok let's say if we go alone in black in this spot, we will go set 40% of the time, a number I think is too high as the enemy is an underdog to have the KD given their first round pass in diamonds, and one of them will not have 3 black trump very often. So our expected outcome of going alone is:

(.6 x 4) + (.4 x -2) = 1.6

Now the next step would be to compare that EO to the EO of just calling which will probably look something like this: We make a point 70% of the time, get euchred 20% and score 2 pts 10%.

(.7 x 1) + (.2 x -2) + (.1 x 2) = .5


Or let's say we make a point 60% of the time, score 2 points 30% of the time and get euchred 10%:

(.6 x 1) + (.3 x 2) + (.1 x -2) = 1

Ok well even if you super-pessimistically assume going alone goes set 50% of the time and sweeps the other 50% of the time, our EO still matches that 1 pt:

(.5 x 4) + (.5 x -2) = 1

I'm convinced we should be going alone with this hand at almost every score. Up 9-8 would be the big exception. At 8-8 or up 8-7, it's actually very close and too hard to tell from back of the envelope math, we need more precision, but going alone EVEN at these scores could be the higher EV play. Crazy man, but true. Down 9-8, going alone very likely has the higher EV so I'm going for it.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:10 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:53 pm
Making clubs or spades: The dangers of NOT going alone are the same (almost) as going alone as it comes from one of the opponents having three clubs/spades.
True, so we can basically ignore that variable. It all comes down to the probability the enemy has the KD.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:53 pm
Thus far better pay off to go alone. My partner or the stock is more likely to have that KD, IMO.
Yeah, that's what I think, and this is even more so when you're up against aggressive players, the type who would call with AdKd + an off Ace from the dealer spot if they don't block much.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:53 pm
If you don't go alone, then you should Pass again hoping for a euchre but it the same play if opponents make clubs or spades - lead both bowers and now comes the QD.
I mean you could be right, but I still prefer calling over passing. I just can't pass 2 sure tricks when I don't block all suits. I don't care if it's against Hoyle. I just can't do it.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:53 pm
If you were looking for scoring one point - you should have ordered the AD.

~Irishwolf
I disagree with that. Like even at 9-9, when euchring the enemy doesn't mean anything, I'd still prefer to jump the fence and call black in the 2nd round with both bowers than challenge the dealer's team in diamonds giving them a trump + a void.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:17 pm

Here is the hand so you can follow along.
https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

I was S1 and passed R1 as recommended and for the right reasons. I then failed to order R2 and even order Alone and for the wrong reason. I had a fit of cowardice! It happens. I am still intimidated playing Wes, Dlan, Irish and others and it showed.

I only saw S1 R2, R & L for 2.25 points, the edge order. I passed! I missed 0.25 for a protected R and 0.75 for 2 Voids! That is 3.00 points, a strong order. I could have added 0.25 for a guarded Left, 0.50 for 2 Bowers for a 3.75 Alone order. Stopping my alone would require a Kd or trip trumps, a remote parlay. Probability 1- 55% - 10% = 35%.

That is the difference between analyzing a hand on the forum and playing in real time. Mistakes happen much more frequently in real time.

Thank you Dlan and Wes for not exposing my errors. But stop that. I want to learn how to play this game as well as possible and being shown my mistakes helps me to achieve my goal. I agree with Wes, I would like a post titled, Richards’s mistakes.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:04 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:17 pm
Thank you Dlan and Wes for not exposing my errors. But stop that. I want to learn how to play this game as well as possible and being shown my mistakes helps me to achieve my goal. I agree with Wes, I would like a post titled, Richards’s mistakes.
I actually have an unwritten policy that I will never critique anyone's play in the Monday night game or impromptu games unless they directly request me to do so. Altho I will critique a hand if someone else posts it here. I just don't want people to feel that they are under the microscope. I want them to relax and enjoy themselves too. This Monday night game is barely going as it is.

Funny thing is, after our Monday night games, I usually spend around 3 hours analyzing hands and critiquing Kirsten's hands (KMS) through email becuz she enjoys it. Altho sometimes she'll argue back and then I have to gently remind her how unwise it is to argue with a legend but she's stubborn like that. :) That's a little different tho than critiquing hands on a public forum. I'll tell you what, if you actually create a thread titled Richard's mistakes, I'll make sure to analyze and critique your hands every week. It's time consuming but I enjoy it a lot.

I like that idea of creating a thread becuz I don't want anyone to think I am picking on them.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:17 pm

The point is that taking your partner along (Clubs or Spades) and he has the KD on trick 3, the odds of a sweep goes way down. He obstructs if he has the KD.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:50 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:17 pm
The point is that taking your partner along (Clubs or Spades) and he has the KD on trick 3, the odds of a sweep goes way down. He obstructs if he has the KD.
I think if we take our partner along we gotta lead a diamond. Since we have 2 tricks locked up and nothing else, we gotta give our P every chance to chip in. But the very fact that we're leading a dirty turned down suit card after jumping the fence hurts the EO of calling A LOT, as the enemy is very likely to win the first trick. Becuz of this unfavorable dynamic, the EO of a black call could easily be around just .5 pts. Going alone slaughters that number even with the super pessimistic assumption of a 50% euchre rate.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:31 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:04 pm
I'll tell you what, if you actually create a thread titled Richard's mistakes, I'll make sure to analyze and critique your hands every week. It's time consuming but I enjoy it a lot.

I like that idea of creating a thread becuz I don't want anyone to think I am picking on them.
Richard, if you make the thread you can title it "Mistakes Wes and Richard made" just to be fair. :)

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:24 pm

Pop Quiz: In the actual hand the action got back to me as the dealer in the 2nd round. I had:

(Card_A-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_Q-H)

What should I call and why?

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:13 pm

Hearts is the proper call, without question!

The reason why is that you have three passes on Next. S2 would not call Next because he should be crossing the suit to spades or clubs. Thus, more likely S2 has hearts but not necessarily strong. S1 passed on Next (hearts) and S3 could have anything.

In STD, next is always the better suit to call if you have a mixed suit hand. This is not commonly known by most euchre players.

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:11 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:13 pm
Hearts is the proper call, without question!

The reason why is that you have three passes on Next. S2 would not call Next because he should be crossing the suit to spades or clubs. Thus, more likely S2 has hearts but not necessarily strong. S1 passed on Next (hearts) and S3 could have anything.

In STD, next is always the better suit to call if you have a mixed suit hand. This is not commonly known by most euchre players.

~Irishwolf
I thought I could do a reveal of what I actually did, but I just remembered Richard already posted the link to the hand play. :)

But yes I called hearts for the reasons you astutely laid out.

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