Would You Attempt A Loner?

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irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Would You Attempt A Loner?

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:52 am

It's a Knock Out Tournament and you are down 8 to 5. The AS (upcard) was passed by all and you hold the AC KC 9C KS AH. It's you decision:

1) You call Next (Clubs) but should you go alone?

2) If you go alone, what do you think your success rate will be?

3) What do you think will be your rate of being Euchred?



Richardb02
Posts: 581
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:06 pm

Using BPS:
0.50 S1 R2
0.75 S1 R2 Next
0.50 Ac
0.50 Kc
0.25 9c
0.50 3 trump no bowers
0.50 Ks (As was turned down so Ks is the Boss
0.75 Ah singleton ace
0.25 1 void
4.50 I would go alone at 3.75 points, neutral score
____Down 8-5, I would add .75 to my hand (go alone at 3.00)

There are 2 single stoppers Jc, Js. So 45% x 45% = 20% success rate of getting 4

Euchre rate less than 5%.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:21 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:52 am
It's a Knock Out Tournament and you are down 8 to 5. The AS (upcard) was passed by all and you hold the AC KC 9C KS AH. It's you decision:

1) You call Next (Clubs) but should you go alone?
I'm going alone in this spot at every score except at 8 or 9.
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:52 am
2) If you go alone, what do you think your success rate will be?

3) What do you think will be your rate of being Euchred?
I'd just be guessing but I'll go with:

15% 4 pts
80% 1 pt
5% euchred

jblowery
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:29 am

Yah that ks is basically like an ace. Probably wont get it but go alone.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:48 am

With the AS being turned down, tournament players skill, I think it is save to assume that the dealer does not have the JS. So the JS is with more likely to be with S3 or the Stock (8 cards vs 5). If S2 has it, he probably has no more spades or he would have assisted. And it is even possible S3 passed with both naked bowers to wait on next. The JC then could be anywhere, but I would lean it is with S3 or buried. Even if with the opponents, so what, you wouldn't get a sweep anyway. This hand actually came up in a tournament, four points was scored as S3 had both bowers. But you have to have a good partner where S3 could order or pass when strong in next.

I would estimate a successful loner one in four or five attempts. As for getting euchred, very vert slim chance (less than 5%). Even Js/Jc QC 10C a very slim chance for this holding and does not guarantee a euchre as the holder would have to be void in hearts and spades.

GO FOR IT!

~Irishwolf

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