

Would you have called on this hand?
Unread post by Dlan » Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:25 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:58 pm
I talk about this spot a lot in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=247
Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:42 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:23 pm
Richardb02 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:41 pm![]()
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The upcard is the AS. We are down 7-2.
Replicates Dylan’s hand from the 01/27/2020 OE Games
I will apply BPS:
0.25 S1 R1
0.25 10s
0.50 Qs
0.50 Ks
0.25 1 Void
0.50 3 Trump, no Bowers
-.25 Net value of As Up Card
2.00 Hand Value vs. 2.25 minimum. No Jacks or Aces to evaluate so:
____Pass, only a 60% expectation of success. It is better to hope that Partner can save the day, unless Opponents have 8 or 9 points.
Ok let's do some simple EV calcs using Richard's 60% number that Edward also endorses, which I agree is a very plausible number. In fact let's make it worse on the "pro-call" people. Let's say we only have a 55% chance at success if we call with Dlan's hand. Say 50% of the time we score 1 point, 5% of the time we get lucky and score 2 pts and the rest, 45% of the time, we get euchred.Tbolt65 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:54 pmI agree. At 60 percent success rate. That's winning 6pts vs losing 8 pts. And that's at its optimal win percentage for the hand. It can and will get worse for a team if they keep calling this in the long run. You are Just giving up too many points.
For the math gurus I can't tell you how often seat 2, round 2 calls and makes 1pt, 2pt, or 4pts or the likelihood of them passing to my 3rd seat partner. But it's gotta be plus EV to pass here. The goal for any euchre player is trying to max/minimize points taken and given away. If one calls too much in bad spots such as this they put their team at risk for bleeding unnecessary points away.
Tbolt65
Edward
So there's a great chance we're pretty close to truth on that number.EZ: "Hand 200. Dealer turns up the 10 of hearts. Seat #1 holds the Ace-K of hearts, Ace of spades, and the King-Q of clubs. Seat #1 orders the dealer to pick up the 10 of hearts. E0: = -.291. N = 309"
Dealer upcard![]()
1st seat:![]()
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Wes: The euchre rate of EZ's example hand is 43.69%, it scores a point 54.37%, and gets 2 points 1.94%. Doing the math:
(.4369 x -2) + (.5437) + (.0194 x 2) = -.291 pts
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:59 pm
Well I know you don't call with this type of hand up 8-4!
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:47 pm
I wanna drive home how conservative the above assumption is--the idea that the dealer's team will call 50% of the time given that S1 has three trump. Firstly, keep in mind that the higher the call rate of the dealer's team the more likely passing in the first round is the correct move. Since I am making a mathematical argument for calling, I would want my proposed enemy calling percentage to err on the side of being too high, thus hurting my argument not helping it. That's what I mean by a conservative assumption.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:23 pm1) If we pass the dealer's team will call 50% of the time, and thus pass 50% of the time. Again, for the sake of simplicity I'm ignoring those rare times the dealer has a loner sweep.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:45 am
Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:50 am
OK. I will concede that Passing costs 0.57 points. Now what? I want to quantify the cost of 0.57 points.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:23 pmOk let's do some simple EV calcs using Richard's 60% number that Edward also endorses, which I agree is a very plausible number. In fact let's make it worse on the "pro-call" people. Let's say we only have a 55% chance at success if we call with Dlan's hand. Say 50% of the time we score 1 point, 5% of the time we get lucky and score 2 pts and the rest, 45% of the time, we get euchred.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:41 pm![]()
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The upcard is the AS. We are down 7-2.
Replicates Dylan’s hand from the 01/27/2020 OE Games
I will apply BPS:
0.25 S1 R1
0.25 10s
0.50 Qs
0.50 Ks
0.25 1 Void
0.50 3 Trump, no Bowers
-.25 Net value of As Up Card
2.00 Hand Value vs. 2.25 minimum. No Jacks or Aces to evaluate so:
____Pass, only a 60% expectation of success. It is better to hope that Partner can save the day, unless Opponents have 8 or 9 points.
So here's the expected outcome of calling:
(.50 x 1) + (.05 x 2) + (.45 x -2) = -.3
So in a vacuum this call will cost us around .3 pts.
Ok here we go. The EO of passing is:
.5[(.33 x 2) + (.65 x -1) + (.02 x -2)] + .5[(.75 x -2) + (.23 x 1) + (.02 x 2) = -.63
EO of calling = -.30
EO of passing = -.63
The EO of calling is .33 points better than passing, IOW the EV of calling = +.33, therefore making this marginal call is what's best for one's team despite the fact that it's a small loser (-.3) in a vacuum becuz the alternative loses more.
Now one may say HEY WAIT A SECOND WE DONT HAVE TO CALL NEXT AND BURN POINTS!! YOU'RE RIGGING THIS!!
Ok, let's not call Next. Let's pass instead. Just note that passing has a cost, and when you pass a hand that has no off aces and blocks nothing, the theoretical cost of passing is pretty close to its high point.
Say we guess that the cost of passing with this hand in the 2nd rd is 1 point (I bet it's more but let's go with 1 point on average).
Now the EO of passing = -.015 + (.5 x -1) = -.515
We're still better off calling since calling only costs us -.3 points
One may wonder what's the break even point that makes us indifferent between passing and calling? The answer is if we assume passing in the 2nd round costs us just .57 points:
EO of passing = -.015 + (.5 x -.57) = -.3
EO of calling = -.3
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:59 pm
The .57 number represented the theoretical cost of passing in the 2nd round that would make us indifferent between calling and passing in the first round, assuming we accept the estimate that calling in the first round costs us .3 pts. So .57 pts is the wrong number to concede on. In order to concede you would simply have to believe that the cost of passing in the 1st rd will be greater than .3 pts. And more broadly, you don't even have to accept that the cost of calling in the first round = approx -.3 pts. You can simply concede that passing in the first round will generally cost more regardless what you think the cost of calling may be.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:50 amOK. I will concede that Passing costs 0.57 points. Now what? I want to quantify the cost of 0.57 points.
Yep, that's the challenge. Having your BPS system account for the cost of having no where to go in the 2nd round/no defense in the 2nd round. Some hand examples to help fine tune (assume the AS upcard for all examples):Richardb02 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:50 amConclusion: In BPS language I will add up to 0.75 for a weak R2 hand. In euchre speak I will add 1/2 a trick to the power of my hand to reflect my expectation of a greater loss by passing. IE, if I order from S1 R1 with 2 tricks (neutral hands). I would order with 1 1/2 tricks when my R2 hand is practically worthless.
Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:21 pm
0.25 S1 R1Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:59 pmYep, that's the challenge. Having your BPS system account for the cost of having no where to go in the 2nd round/no defense in the 2nd round. Some hand examples to help fine tune (assume the AS upcard for all examples):Richardb02 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:50 amConclusion: In BPS language I will add up to 0.75 for a weak R2 hand. In euchre speak I will add 1/2 a trick to the power of my hand to reflect my expectation of a greater loss by passing. IE, if I order from S1 R1 with 2 tricks (neutral hands). I would order with 1 1/2 tricks when my R2 hand is practically worthless.
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I call, for reasons already stated.
0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Ks
0.50 Qs
0.25 Ts
0.50 3 Trump, no bowers
0.25 1 Void, c
2.00 Subtotal vs 2.25 order
0.25 No R2 hand
0.25 No jacks
0.25 No aces
2.75 Adjusted value > 2.25, order which confirms call
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Now I pass, and if the dealer passes I'm calling hearts in the 2nd round. Jumping the fence with R+1 and nothing else but an extremely dirty boss card is not ideal, but it beats passing from that spot when you only block 1 out of 3 remaining suits. Having somewhere viable to go to in the 2nd round, even if not ideal, can change a first rd marginal call into a pass. Also, in case it's relevant, up 9-6/9-7 I would donate in the first rd with this hand since I don't block a loner.
0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Ks
0.50 Qs
0.25 Ts
0.50 3 Trump, no bowers
0.25 1 Void, c
2.00 Subtotal vs 2.25 order so pass and:
0.50 S1 R2
0.00 Reverse Next
1.00 Jh
0.25 9h
0.25 Bower + 1
0.75 2 Voids, c & d
2.75 Subtotal vs 2.25 order so order
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I pass, with the intention of passing in the 2nd rd. While we have no where to go in the 2nd round, we now have good defense having reverse Next blocked (And again, it goes without saying, up 9-6/9-7 I would donate in the first rd with this hand since I don't block a loner).
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:12 am
Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:39 am
Unread post by Richardb02 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:04 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:22 pm
You didn't make any mistakes. You were the dealer. I was critiquing S1's play (Don's).Richardb02 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:04 pmI agree, passing Diamonds was the right call as long as I was prepared to call Spades. Passing in R2 was my mistake. BPS R2 calcs:
0.50 S1 R2
0.00 Reverse Next
1.00 Right
0.25 9s
0.25 Bower + 1
0.75 2 Voids
2.25 vs 2.25. I should have ordered.
Do whatever you gotta do to make you happy Richard, but I hope you can still make Monday's game. It's been very fun playing with you. You have a good spirit, someone I wish I could play with in real life.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:04 pmOE, I’m backing off for a while. My priorities, God, wife, family, work, profession, health, churc h, racquetball, does not leave enough time to participate with OE at a high level. The stress of being an Investment Advisor Representative and Insurance Agent during a severe market correction is taking it’s toll. I have 2 family members who are doctors. More stress. I shall return, but it will take time before I participate with gusto. Thank you.
Unread post by Richardb02 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:24 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:30 pm
I want it all mother****er!!!Richardb02 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:24 pmWes, I am not bailing. The game is excellent. All y’all are great. If you need a 4th I’m there. If you have 4 I will sit out. Because of the corona virus, visits to OE have sky-rocketed. I have invited the immense number of visitors to the Monday night games. I hope we attract more people to the wonderful game of Euchre. I immensely enjoy playing with you , IrishWolf, Dlan and Kirsten.
My priorities are just different. I suggest that many visitors are more like me than the posters on OE. I get it, that you and IrishWolf want the best plays in Euchre. Personally, I want more enjoyment out of Euchre, I don’t desire perfection.
What do you want Wes and IrishWolf, perfection or more players?
Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:21 pm
Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:12 pm
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