Three small trump from first seat

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Mxx
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:20 am

Three small trump from first seat

Unread post by Mxx » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 pm

Hi folks,

Please give me your wisdom on this situation that came up for me recently.

I am in first seat holding
(Card_Q-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-S)

The upcard is the AS. We are down 6-2.

My first thought is it's not strong enough to order the dealer up, but I hope they pick up so I can lead trump for a potential euchre.

My second thought is if the dealer passes I am in deep strife with no next and no block in red.

Being 4 points behind, I am leaning towards ordering up and hoping for the best. From memory I have seen other players do this a few times and I didn't begrudge them for it.

What do you think?



jspectre
Posts: 48
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am

Unread post by jspectre » Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:54 pm

This is an automatic call for me at any score. Your only play after that gets turned over is a hearts call that amounts to little more than a guess, and you would have to lead hearts because you have only spades for non-trump suits. You could try and play next here, but you only have a very weak tripleton K of spades to offer, your partner would have to have both bowers and possibly another trick. Passing this hand into diamonds is extremely dangerous, and there's no guarantee they weren't waiting for a next call, as you possess no strength in clubs. The only correct play is to call in this situation. I daresay it's the correct move even from 3rd seat, let alone 1st, given how most partners play the game.

However, if you give me 2 trash cards like a 9 of diamonds, Q of hearts, I would be way more hesitant to call that, even if I have nowhere to go in the 2nd round. In that situation you're practically donating, so only call that or call next afterward if you can't allow the opponents to call in this situation. I have been in this particular situation many times, and you really don't have a chance if they were going to pick it up, and if they turn it down you may or may not have made that point anyway given how weak the hand was. However, if we're in the lead, I may take a chance on this play, and I will call here if I want to block 2nd seat from calling, because this is the best play I have.

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:42 pm

I'm passing all day here, every day, except 9-9. You do have a viable heart potential stopper with two voids. If you pass a second time. They will have to be either loaded or going alone in seat 2 to really burn you. It is entirely possible that, might happen in any of the three suits. What I would consider here is what kind of opponent is in the dealer seat? Same thing for who is in the Seat 2 position. Also what about your partner? I mean if you are really scared of a loner, call your best if it gets turned down. You still have a boss King of spades and can play hearts to kind of semi-donate but who donates at this score? Oh I know who. Some guy named Wes, ;) Anyways go with hearts then lead it and you may get some big ones to drop, you may even promote your King to being boss trump if that happens you can run spades for the win. If your partner has any help its a bonus. If not you may of just saved the game.

I've actually passed twice in this spot with similar hands. It does happen, for me at least. I used to order this all day once upon a time.


Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:47 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 pm
Hi folks,

Please give me your wisdom on this situation that came up for me recently.

I am in first seat holding
(Card_Q-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-S)

The upcard is the AS. We are down 6-2.

My first thought is it's not strong enough to order the dealer up, but I hope they pick up so I can lead trump for a potential euchre.

My second thought is if the dealer passes I am in deep strife with no next and no block in red.

Being 4 points behind, I am leaning towards ordering up and hoping for the best. From memory I have seen other players do this a few times and I didn't begrudge them for it.

What do you think?
Anyone who has taken my quiz knows how I approach this spot (even tho most or all? disagreed with me). See hand 10: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=111

I strongly feel that passing this hand in this spot is a mistake. Whenever I'm in Seat 1 with three trump and block nothing in the 2nd round/have nowhere to go, I'm always ordering the dealer up (except at scores 9-8, 8-9, and 8-8). It's not a call I wanna make. It's a call I gotta make. IOW I think calling is a losing play--not that big of a loser, I mean you still have 3 trump--but I think your team will lose more in the long run if you pass. Bottom line, at every score except 9-8, 8-9, 8-8), I'm not passing in the 2nd round when I block nothing. I will never do that to my team. To me that's poor Seat 1 play. So if I pass in the first rd and the dealer passes, I'm basically forced into a Heart call that has a great chance of going set. I think our prospects are slightly better if we just order in the first round with 3 trump. It's like a semi-donate.

Let's talk a bit about the scores where I don't "semi-donate" with 3 trump:

Up 9-8, this call gets euchred too often to take a risk up 9-8. If the dealer passes we pass too and pray to the euchre gods Seat 2 doesn't have a closeout hand.

At down 8-9, now we're better off going for the gamble hoping the enemy picks up and trying to euchre them for the win. If the dealer passes those are the breaks, and now we call hearts and lead the low heart and hope to get lucky.

8-8, is the grey area spot for me. I feel like the argument can go both ways. And the argument is between passing in the first round and going for the game winning euchre with the intention of making a very sad pass in the 2nd round vs Calling in the first rd and taking on the risk of getting euchred becuz if the dealer passes the prospects of losing the game right away in the 2nd round after we pass with nothing or being down 9-8 on our deal with approx 36% equity after Seat 2 presumably scores a point, aren't very attractive alternatives anyways.

Change our hand slightly to this:

(Card_Q-H) (Card_J-H) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S)

And I would never order in the first round. Our marginal prospects in hearts are a decent enough plan B in the 2nd round--a marginal call we must make when we only block 1 out of 3 remaining suits--to forgo the risky order in the first rd.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:49 pm

jspectre wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:54 pm
This is an automatic call for me at any score.

You went too far imo. Can't make this risky call up 9-8, and down 9-8 you need to gamble and go for the euchre. 8-8 is debatable. I side with passing since an opponent euchre can still win us the game, but it wouldn't shock me if a hypothetical simulation proved calling is better given our dire 2nd rd prospects.
jspectre wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:54 pm
Your only play after that gets turned over is a hearts call that amounts to little more than a guess, and you would have to lead hearts because you have only spades for non-trump suits. You could try and play next here, but you only have a very weak tripleton K of spades to offer, your partner would have to have both bowers and possibly another trick.

I think crossing the river with 2 low trump and a dirty boss card is better than calling Next with no trump and a dirty boss card. So I call hearts too, but ofc this is ultimately a math problem.
jspectre wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:54 pm
Passing this hand into diamonds is extremely dangerous, and there's no guarantee they weren't waiting for a next call, as you possess no strength in clubs. The only correct play is to call in this situation.

I strongly agree. Hands like this illustrate why Seat 1 is the most important Seat in the game. Seat 1 essentially controls the game. Seat 1 gets to decide what loners get through in the first rd and the 2nd round. Seat 1 is basically the quarterback of the team, the game manager so to speak. Seat 1 doesn't get the luxury of just playing his cards, being on level zero autopilot mode, passing becuz he doesn't like his hand or passing becuz the prospects of a euchre are higher than he'd like. Seat 1 can't think selfishly like that, he HAS to do what's best for his team because that's his job. And part of Seat 1's job is to make tough calls like the OP's hand to protect his team.
jspectre wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:54 pm
I daresay it's the correct move even from 3rd seat, let alone 1st, given how most partners play the game.


You went to far imo. The problem with ordering this in 3rd is you'll create too many negative 1 point swings (you get euchred when the dealer would've picked up or you scratch out a point when the dealer would've picked up), negative 3 point swings (you get euchred when the dealer would've passed and your partner had a 1 point 2nd round call or your call scores a point, but your partner had a 2nd round loner sweep), negative 4 point swings (you get euchred when your partner had a 2 point call, and the vaunted negative 6 point swing (you get euchred when your partner was sitting on a 2nd round loner, a possibility that goes up when you have no bowers in your hand). These swings add up to the point where even with an amateur partner I don't think we should force it in third at most scores.

HOWEVER, if we are up 9-x where x = 7 or less, and our partner doesn't play the 2nd round well like 99% of all euchre players, I think ordering is the correct play. Ordering still has a chance to score a point and close out the game, we prevent any 2nd round miracles from Seat 2, and if we're euchred we still have a strong advantage (2-1 favs at 9-9 on our deal) even in the worst case scenario. One could make this same argument if we have a big lead, but at a neutral score, I don't think it's worth it.
jspectre wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:54 pm
However, if you give me 2 trash cards like a 9 of diamonds, Q of hearts, I would be way more hesitant to call that, even if I have nowhere to go in the 2nd round. In that situation you're practically donating, so only call that or call next afterward if you can't allow the opponents to call in this situation.

My way of thinking is the exact opposite of this, becuz our 2nd round prospects are now even worse (in the first scenario we at least had 2 low trump + a dirty boss suit, now we basically have to call next with no trump and a dirty boss suit) we should feel even more compelled to call in the first round and make this semi-donate.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:59 pm

I am agreeing with Ed, I am passing. The reason I am passing as ordering will generate euchres over 33%. It only takes for the opponents to have the Right at 56% and dealer to have his ace guarded with it will most of the time. Then the Ace to the eldest off suit also at 56%. Dealer will be making trump I think about 40 - 50% of the time.
If the dealer passes it does become an issue as I am not calling green and next becomes a leap of faith as I have no next to lead. Depends on the score, and who's playing. But I am probably calling next anyway. It may look bad, but surprisingly the euchre rate will not exceed 33%.

~Irishwolf


~Irishwolf

jspectre
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Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am

Unread post by jspectre » Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:01 am

@Wes

You're right, it's not a call at any score, I should have clarified that if we're up 8-9 I'm passing and hoping we don't get screwed over. However, if we're down 8-9 I think I'm calling here, if we can make this point good, we have next deal, I don't need a euchre to close out the game on the spot when I can (generally) count on my deal to make a point.

As for calling in 3rd seat, that's not a move you make with a pro, but with the average partner/opponents it's been my experience that it's worth calling up a hand like that if you get it, which is not very often, at least in my case. Sure, it feels like every time you do order from 3rd they were going to pick up anyway, but I've had plenty of hands go 2 pts in the other direction when it is flipped and your partner passes.

I may not disagree with you about having 3 trump and 2 trash cards, it's just a call that's painful to make. I suppose it's not that much different than having a 2 suited pair, but at least then you have a strong possibility of making the K boss, where as you're just praying with 3 low-ish trump and no other outs. It's either call or pass while blocking nothing in reverse next on the following turn, tough situation all around.

We're definitely in agreement that we should be playing this hand, however. All we need is a little help from our partner to make this work, passing here might be perfectly fine and our partner may have a killer hand, and 2nd seat could have the loner, that's Euchre for you, and that's why you take your chances and run with them.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:21 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 pm
Hi folks,

Please give me your wisdom on this situation that came up for me recently.

I am in first seat holding
(Card_Q-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-S)

What do you think?
One caveat I forgot to mention. Even if you have no where to go in the 2nd round never run this play vs a Jack upcard unless you're still unguarded and donating up 9-6/9-7. At up 8-6, I'm not ordering up the Jack even if I'm not guarded--I just don't think it's worth it, plus if we set the dealer we win.

The reason for this caveat is simple, if you order 3 low trump vs a Jack you will get set WAY more often, and crucially the biggest reason you don't wanna run this play is becuz the dealer will pick up way more often if you pass. So passing and gambling that the Dealer's team will pick up is the play here. If the dealer passes then you're basically in a 2nd rd donation situation that sux, but that trouble is worth it now.

Example hand: Score is 0-0. Upcard is the (Card_J-D). You're in the 1 seat with:

(Card_K-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-S)

Pass. If the dealer passes, call Next with nothing and pray.

Calling Next in that spot as a straight donation play is a controversial strategy, but like I've mentioned before, at that score I'm never passing from the 1 seat, 2nd rd when I block nothing. I can't prove my approach is correct tho, but the philosophy is clear: When I'm in Seat 1 I have an obligation to do what's best for my team, and sometimes that means I gotta throw myself into the fire.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:29 pm

WES,
Will you always making trump in 1st seat when you have a hand that blocks nothing, resulting in a euchre and - 2 pts? This does not include when you are at the bridge which is obvious. Is this to block a loner attempt?

..." but like I've mentioned before, at that score I'm never passing from the 1 seat, 2nd rd when I block nothing. I can't prove my approach is correct tho, but the philosophy is clear: When I'm in Seat 1 I have an obligation to do what's best for my team, and sometimes that means I gotta throw myself into the fire"

I am not convinced this is good strategy at all, considering the low rate of successful loners.

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:14 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:29 pm
WES,
Will you always making trump in 1st seat when you have a hand that blocks nothing, resulting in a euchre and - 2 pts? This does not include when you are at the bridge which is obvious. Is this to block a loner attempt?

..." but like I've mentioned before, at that score I'm never passing from the 1 seat, 2nd rd when I block nothing. I can't prove my approach is correct tho, but the philosophy is clear: When I'm in Seat 1 I have an obligation to do what's best for my team, and sometimes that means I gotta throw myself into the fire"

I am not convinced this is good strategy at all, considering the low rate of successful loners.

~Irishwolf
I may not have time to respond today, but first I need a clarification. Are you asking about the 1st rd or the 2nd rd.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:56 pm

Do each separately!

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm

I'm with Wes when it comes to making a call when you block nothing in reverse next, but for me it's not really about blocking a loner at all, I just want to make a point for our team if there's a point available to be made. Certain hands are just too ugly to call, and if I'm not desperate to stop them from getting a loner, I'm going to pass and hope that 2nd seat can't call, that my partner has a strong hand, or that we manage to get a trick on a reverse call.

I would rather take a chance on a hand like this one than to just pass and hope the damage isn't too bad. The only way I'm passing this particular hand is if I have resigned myself to a hearts call if I'm wrong and they turn the card over. I can't see how that's a good play, so unless we really need a euchre more than a point, I'm most likely calling up this hand.

Now, when I know I'm playing weaker players, I pass much more often, but against good players I'm making that next call on just a single trump + side ace or crossing the river with a decent hand that doesn't block next. It doesn't always work out, but in a race to 10 points, I'd rather fight for a point than just give up the opportunity. Also, most euchres are only giving up a single point, but that adage doesn't hold true against weaker players.

irishwolf
Posts: 700
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:24 am

You statement below gives NO HELPFUL hints on strategy. You say take a chance but what does that mean? What are your assumption(s) about statistically making a point? If you can't reduce it probability, your'e lost. What euchre rate is acceptable and not acceptable on you chance to you? What about the situation and score? I not factual information that might be helpful. LET'S JUST WING IT!

" I would rather take a chance on a hand like this one than to just pass and hope the damage isn't too bad. The only way I'm passing this particular hand is if I have resigned myself to a hearts call if I'm wrong and they turn the card over. I can't see how that's a good play, so unless we really need a euchre more than a point, I'm most likely calling up this hand."

~Irishwolf

jspectre
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Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am

Unread post by jspectre » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:47 am

It means I'm aware that calling up a stronger card than any in my hand, when I hold no bowers, is certainly somewhat of a risk, I will absolutely need my partner for a trick or two. I couldn't tell you what the odds are statistically here, I just don't feel as if it's the correct play to leave it up to the dealer, and the pass when I I hold no diamonds and could be easily giving up 2 points or more to a reverse next call. So, with this particular hand, my chances of calling and fighting for a point seem better to me than giving up a sure point, possibly two. I can be reasonably certain that a euchre on this call only costs me one point, and that's a scenario I can definitely live with. I assume I will make my point enough times to justify this call, but I don't have the math to back it up. Now, I'm much less confident about that statement if I have 2 garbage cards instead of a suited KQ.

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:08 pm

I don't have the math to back it up either, but I stop making this a regular call due to it costing my team points over the long haul. It can net you points and the win at 9-9, or if your up say 9-3 go ahead and try to close it out. But at even scores and being down. It hurts you too much too often to justify calling all the time. Be selective with these types of hands. When ordering dealer up from 1st seat. Passing in the long run doesn't hurt as much as others would lead you to believe in the 2nd round either. It sucks when it does but by and large it only really hurts you when 2nd goes alone and makes it.

Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:51 pm

I might agree with you if your were more clear on the score, hand and situation. But it a totally different problem when that decision faces you at 3rd vs 1st.
From the particular holding: You hold no bowers and the upcard is stronger than any card you hold. 3 small trump and no aces from 3rd, Wow (not me)! Does not matter if those two off suit are next or not. For you to make a point, you are right, your partner will have to win two tricks on the average. I can say, I have Never made a call from 3rd expecting my partner to win two tricks. And if he does, he probably had Next covered as well. He already passed. So it seems like you are playing as if your partner is a total idiot. If you are euchred 1 in 3 hands, you only breakeven. With three small trump, no aces from 3rd and up card is bigger than yours, the Euchre Rate will approach 40%.

Your last statement, that "it is better fighting for a point than giving up a sure point . . ." You said it is not a donation. You make those kind of calls when 6 to 6, 7 to 7 etc. you will lose more often than winning. The holding of specific cards is unpredictable but statistical. Fickle might be a good word from one hand to another. I say don't always try to OUT Think the cards. It's a partnership game. If you hold junk, your partner will have something, on the average.

"It means I'm aware that calling up a stronger card than any in my hand, when I hold no bowers, is certainly somewhat of a risk, I will absolutely need my partner for a trick or two. I couldn't tell you what the odds are statistically here, I just don't feel as if it's the correct play to leave it up to the dealer, and the pass when I I hold no diamonds and could be easily giving up 2 points or more to a reverse next call. So, with this particular hand, my chances of calling and fighting for a point seem better to me than giving up a sure point, possibly two."

~Irishwolf

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:15 pm

Sorry, I thought we were only discussing the hand from 1st seat. I would only consider making this call from 3rd seat with the typical bad online euchre player, in which I hope that he has one of the bowers and we can make the call work. I would probably only call this is we were up by quite a bit or in desperation mode. Truth be told, I'm also a bit worried I'll be setting up a good player to fail with a next call, but I suppose that just can't be helped.

If I make this call from 1st seat I'm definitely gambling on my partner either having one of the bowers or several aces, either that or several trump need to be buried. I'm simply not going to make this call from 1st seat with minimal help, hence why it's a risk. As Wes would say, it depends if the risk of passing is greater than the risk of calling in this situation.

I've played a lot of Euchre and I don't get this hand with much frequency at all, but I am very familiar with having 3 low trump and 2 garbage cards, and I don't know if I'm in agreement with Wes to make that call. I'm really asking for a lot from my partner, and it feels like much more of a donation than if I'm holding a strong suited pair like KQ.

But yeah, the hypothetical call from 3rd seat was pretty much only if my p is an idiot, which is how all my p's normally are. lol

RedDuke
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Unread post by RedDuke » Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:51 pm

I strongly feel that passing this hand in this spot is a mistake. Whenever I'm in Seat 1 with three trump and block nothing in the 2nd round/have nowhere to go, I'm always ordering the dealer up (except at scores 9-8, 8-9, and 8-8). It's not a call I wanna make. It's a call I gotta make. IOW I think calling is a losing play--not that big of a loser, I mean you still have 3 trump--but I think your team will lose more in the long run if you pass. Bottom line, at every score except 9-8, 8-9, 8-8), I'm not passing in the 2nd round when I block nothing. I will never do that to my team. To me that's poor Seat 1 play. So if I pass in the first rd and the dealer passes, I'm basically forced into a Heart call that has a great chance of going set. I think our prospects are slightly better if we just order in the first round with 3 trump. It's like a semi-donate.
With the AS as the upcard, this is definitely a losing play to make. That card will beat anything you've got in your hand. If the dealer has a bower, then it's a sure bet you're going to be euchred. On the other hand, if the dealer has a bower then there's a good chance he'll pick up. In that case, your hand might just be strong enough to prevent a march. If you're euchred then you basically lose a point.

However, what if the dealer doesn't pick up? Then you've got nothing in next and a very real chance that somebody has a killer hand in reverse next (especially diamonds). It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

If we're up by a lot, I might order this just to prevent the alternative. It seems better than trying to make a hearts call in round 2 to prevent a second seat reverse next loner. If the other team is at 8 or something, I'm not going to try that... I'll pass and hope the dealer picks up then try to set him or at least stop them from getting more than 1 point.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:01 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:29 pm
WES,
Will you always making trump in 1st seat when you have a hand that blocks nothing, resulting in a euchre and - 2 pts? This does not include when you are at the bridge which is obvious. Is this to block a loner attempt?

..." but like I've mentioned before, at that score I'm never passing from the 1 seat, 2nd rd when I block nothing. I can't prove my approach is correct tho, but the philosophy is clear: When I'm in Seat 1 I have an obligation to do what's best for my team, and sometimes that means I gotta throw myself into the fire"

I am not convinced this is good strategy at all, considering the low rate of successful loners.

~Irishwolf
Ok, here's how I play Seat 1 at 0-0, 1st rd and 2nd rd:

1st Seat, 1st round: Let's get the donates out of the way, and in case anything I say contradicts something I've said in the past keep in mind that this will never be a finished product for me until I get ahold of that hypothetical euchre simulator. I'm constantly tweaking this stuff.

Ok, Let's do the 'nevers' first. No matter what the upcard is I am never donating if I have Ax in trump (only JJx can beat me and I'll live with that), if I have 2 off aces, or if I have 2 trump + an off ace.

Vs Jack upcard, I will donate if I have no trump + no off aces, no trump + 1 off ace, 1 trump + an off ace except if that 1 trump is the Left, 1 trump + no off aces, 2 trump + no off aces if I have no voids. I feel pretty good about most of my donates vs a Jack upcard except I often wonder if it would be better not to donate with 1 trump + an off ace or 2 trump + no off aces + no voids.

Vs Ace upcard, I will donate with no trump + no off aces, no trump + 1 off ace, 1 trump + no off aces if that one trump is not the Left.

Vs all other upcards, if I have no trump + no off aces + no viable call in the 2nd round I will donate. The only question that often consumes me is does the Ace upcard deserve special status? Maybe it should be lumped in with all the other non-bower upcards.

And of course the rare but special semi-donate itt: If I have 3 trump and block nothing/have no where to go in the 2nd round I will always order up.

1st seat, 2nd rd: If I don't block reverse next I always call something. If I block reverse next but don't block next I will cross the river with Left + 2. If I block reverse next but don't block next I will also cross the river with R + 1 + an off ace if I have no next cards or just 1 non-Left next card. I'm not that confident about the last tidbit. Maybe it's best to always cross the river with R + 1 + an off ace if you simply don't block next or maybe it's best to always pass this marginal hand if you block reverse next.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:37 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:08 pm
I don't have the math to back it up either, but I stop making this a regular call due to it costing my team points over the long haul.

Well you can't really "know" that tho. I mean the reality is you stopped making this call becuz the euchre frequency was too high for your liking and you deduced that it's a losing play in the long run. Sure ok, makes sense. But you still don't know if that's true. You don't have the math and I don't have the math either, but that shouldn't stop us from guessing and doing some back of the envelope math! So here's my guesses based on my experience of playing this spot my recommended way over the last 10k games or so:

With the (Card_A-S) upcard, if we call with (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) we will get euchred 50% of the time, score a 1 pt 45% of the time and get lucky and score 2 points 5% of the time. Ok so,

(.5 x -2) + (.45) + (.05 x 2) = -.45 pts

So based on my guesses, in a vacuum calling with this hand will cost my team .45 pts. Can we do better than my guesses? Well what about Eric Zalas' book? Does he simulate a spot like this? Seems like there's a good chance he would. Well guess what I checked, and sadly he doesn't. Out of 225 hands he doesn't really have a lot of Seat 1, 1st round scenarios. But hand 200 is kind've analogous in that Seat 1 is ordering up a marginal hand in the 1st rd:
EZ: "Hand 200. Dealer turns up the 10 of hearts. Seat #1 holds the Ace-K of hearts, Ace of spades, and the King-Q of clubs. Seat #1 orders the dealer to pick up the 10 of hearts. E0: = -.291. N = 309"

Dealer upcard (Card_10-H)

1st seat: (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C)
The euchre rate of EZ's example hand is 43.69%, it scores a point 54.37%, and gets 2 points 1.94%. Doing the math:

(.4369 x -2) + (.5437) + (.0194 x 2) = -.291 pts

Ok, so even tho EZ's hand is different than having 3 trump, no off aces, I think they are both similar in strength. Maybe ordering up the dealer with the OP's hand also nets out at around a .291 loss? Maybe I was too pessimistic with my .45 loss estimation. My euchre rate was probably too high.

Either way, I think a reasonable estimate for the long run cost of this call is a fraction of a point, somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of a point. But of course that's not the real cost. That's just the cost in a vacuum. We then have to ask ourselves this key question: 'Will passing this hand--blocking nothing in the 2nd round with no place to go--cost my team more than 1/3 to 1/2 of a point in the long run? Intuitively I think it easily will cross that threshold. I would bet a $1,000 passing will cost more than a half a point in that spot. But I wouldn't bet $10,000. I'm a gambler but I don't trust my intuition THAT much no matter how seductive my back of the envelop math may be. That said, I still feel strong enough to assert if seat one is not biting the bullet and making this marginal call he/she is not playing Seat 1 as well as they think are. They are on level zero, just playing their 5 cards when they need to be thinking about what's best for their team.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:15 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:37 pm
Tbolt65 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:08 pm
I don't have the math to back it up either, but I stop making this a regular call due to it costing my team points over the long haul.

Well you can't really "know" that tho. I mean the reality is you stopped making this call becuz the euchre frequency was too high for your liking and you deduced that it's a losing play in the long run. Sure ok, makes sense. But you still don't know if that's true. You don't have the math and I don't have the math either, but that shouldn't stop us from guessing and doing some back of the envelope math! So here's my guesses based on my experience of playing this spot my recommended way over the last 10k games or so:

With the (Card_A-S) upcard, if we call with (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) we will get euchred 50% of the time, score a 1 pt 45% of the time and get lucky and score 2 points 5% of the time. Ok so,

(.5 x -2) + (.45) + (.05 x 2) = -.45 pts

So based on my guesses, in a vacuum calling with this hand will cost my team .45 pts. Can we do better than my guesses? Well what about Eric Zalas' book? Does he simulate a spot like this? Seems like there's a good chance he would. Well guess what I checked, and sadly he doesn't. Out of 225 hands he doesn't really have a lot of Seat 1, 1st round scenarios. But hand 200 is kind've analogous in that Seat 1 is ordering up a marginal hand in the 1st rd:
EZ: "Hand 200. Dealer turns up the 10 of hearts. Seat #1 holds the Ace-K of hearts, Ace of spades, and the King-Q of clubs. Seat #1 orders the dealer to pick up the 10 of hearts. E0: = -.291. N = 309"

Dealer upcard (Card_10-H)

1st seat: (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C)
The euchre rate of EZ's example hand is 43.69%, it scores a point 54.37%, and gets 2 points 1.94%. Doing the math:

(.4369 x -2) + (.5437) + (.0194 x 2) = -.291 pts

Ok, so even tho EZ's hand is different than having 3 trump, no off aces, I think they are both similar in strength. Maybe ordering up the dealer with the OP's hand also nets out at around a .291 loss? Maybe I was too pessimistic with my .45 loss estimation. My euchre rate was probably too high.

Either way, I think a reasonable estimate for the long run cost of this call is a fraction of a point, somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of a point. But of course that's not the real cost. That's just the cost in a vacuum. We then have to ask ourselves this key question: 'Will passing this hand--blocking nothing in the 2nd round with no place to go--cost my team more than 1/3 to 1/2 of a point in the long run? Intuitively I think it easily will cross that threshold. I would bet a $1,000 passing will cost more than a half a point in that spot. But I wouldn't bet $10,000. I'm a gambler but I don't trust my intuition THAT much no matter how seductive my back of the envelop math may be. That said, I still feel strong enough to assert if seat one is not biting the bullet and making this marginal call he/she is not playing Seat 1 as well as they think are. They are on level zero, just playing their 5 cards when they need to be thinking about what's best for their team.

I intuitively put the hand at somewhere just over perhaps 50% win percentage for that hand. To make this a regular call at that win rate. It's going to look something like this. +1,-2,+1,-2,+1,-2, +1,+1,-2,+1/-2 (odds are on this 10th time it's coming up a -2 more often to get that low 50s percentage.)

As one can see your losing points.


There will be spots to make the call but as an every time call it hurts you too often and your leaking points away. You have to pick and choose situations that it's worth doing it. At 0-0 it could be one of the times because it is early but like I said, I really think you have to pick and choose your spots.


Passing is an option in second round. Like I said before you'll only get hurt vs a 4 bagger and that doesn't happen enough to justify calling in 2nd round. If your at 9-6, 9-7. 9-3, 8-2 ect...Then ok. Otherwise no in my book. At even or behind scores except 0-0 i dont order. I don't like to give away "free points".


Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:35 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:15 pm
I intuitively put the hand at somewhere just over perhaps 50% win percentage for that hand. To make this a regular call at that win rate. It's going to look something like this. +1,-2,+1,-2,+1,-2, +1,+1,-2,+1/-2 (odds are on this 10th time it's coming up a -2 more often to get that low 50s percentage.)

As one can see your losing points.


There will be spots to make the call but as an every time call it hurts you too often and your leaking points away. You have to pick and choose situations that it's worth doing it. At 0-0 it could be one of the times because it is early but like I said, I really think you have to pick and choose your spots.


Passing is an option in second round. Like I said before you'll only get hurt vs a 4 bagger and that doesn't happen enough to justify calling in 2nd round. If your at 9-6, 9-7. Then ok. Otherwise no in my book. I don't like to give away "free points".


Tbolt65
Edward
Again it's not about how much this call costs. It's about the cost of calling vs the cost of passing. Based on your estimated win% you are implicitly assuming this call will cost around 1/2 a point, which is fine. There's just no way I can believe that passing this hand---a hand that blocks nothing and has no aces except a very dirty turned suit effective ace--will not cost us more than a half a point. I just don't but it at all. Also, the idea that only a 4 point loner hurts us is erroneous. When we pass this kind of hand, the probability that our opponents score a point, 2 points, and 4 points goes up a lot and conversely the probability they get euchred goes way down. This all adds to the cost of passing. It's a number we cannot know but can only guesstimate. I suspect that passing this type of hand will cost us around 1 point. Now perhaps one could argue that if Seat 2 is passive/terrible or Seat 4 is aggressive/terrible passing can be right. Well I'm not interested in that permutation. What matters to me is what is the correct strategy assuming everyone is reasonably competent. I leave it to the reader to make their own in game adjustments depending on what kind of opponents they are facing.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:25 pm

Correct strategy does not only depend on the the type of player but also the various situations one may be in. What's correct one time is not necessarily correct another.

For example, donating in a game vs. Someone who passes the up jack card as dealer alot or passes 3 Trump for same spot. You can now gamble more and Not, donate in situations vs. Competent players you would. Now that's an easy one to show but that principle can be applied to a whole slew of other situations.

I totally understand the value of passing vs cost calling. To always adhere to it at every situation, is too ridgid. Is it correct most of the time? Sure it is but not always.


Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:51 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:25 pm
Correct strategy does not only depend on the the type of player but also the various situations one may be in. What's correct one time is not necessarily correct another.

For example, donating in a game vs. Someone who passes the up jack card as dealer alot or passes 3 Trump for same spot. You can now gamble more and Not, donate in situations vs. Competent players you would. Now that's an easy one to show but that principle can be applied to a whole slew of other situations.

I totally understand the value of passing vs cost calling. To always adhere to it at every situation, is too ridgid. Is it correct most of the time? Sure it is but not always.


Tbolt65
Edward
That all goes without saying. This is an argument about default strategy. I leave it to the reader to figure out when to deviate, that's a whole other discussion. My claim is the default strategy should be to order up the dealer with 3 trump in the 1st rd when you have no where to go/block nothing in the 2nd round at all scores except 9-8, 8-9, and probably 8-8. The exception being when the dealer upcard is a Jack, in that case only order up 9-7/9-6.

And of course, how one defines "no where to go in the 2nd round" can be important. For example:

Score is 0-0, (Card_10-C) upcard, you're in the 1 seat with:

(Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_9-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S)

I'm not ordering in the first round. I'm trapping. I feel totally comfortable calling next with this holding should the dealer pass.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:29 pm

Wes & T-bolt,

Good discussion you two. I don't have anything significant to your commentary except to add, based on my past analysis that when 1st seat passes 2nd seat can make trump with a moderate to strong hand in one of the three suits, 45 - 50% of the time. Not included to this is that some players will call green regardless, on weak hands. (I don't know how to factor that in - player specific.) So now that leaves a good percentage for 3rd seat. This is for non STD format. Loner attempts are about 8 - 10%, and success 1 in 3/4 attempts. It does not matter to me if my side holds the opponents to 1 point as its our deal next. 2 pts hurts and I wish I had done something else when it occurs. Sometimes I play it one way, sometimes the other. If I have a really good player to my left, I am not letting him call shit unless I am laying in the bushes.

This is not a cop-out but I think you both can be right depending on the situation. Making the "right" call 65% and above will put you in elite company in euchre. 50/50 that is a different story.

~Irishwolf

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:23 pm

Well what do you know......

Interesting live hand happened last night against the legend himself aka Wes.

It holds a lot of similarities to the hand we are talking about, but just a tad stronger.

I am in first seat, Wes is to my left in 2nd seat. I hold,

(Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-D) (Card_A-C)

Up card (Card_A-S)

Score is 7-3 my teams lead. In the after hours euchre game which usually consist of playing 2 games and switch partners for a total of 6 games. Sometime we get in 1 extra game before the store closes. Anyways....

I'm like pick it up. I lead the 10 of spades and I proceed to get euchred. The hand plays itself. I only take 2 tricks one with the Ace of diamond and one cutting the off suit heart. At this point It didn't matter what I lead the dealer had 2 Trump left vs my 1 Trump and ace of clubs. I get euchred and I turn to Wes and say hey that's the same hand nearly as we are discussing in the ohioeuchre, but better.

Oh and not that it matters. I went on to go 5-2 for the after hours games. 😊



Now with that hand I was really unlucky but it happens. That's why with the hand we've been talking about. We really have to be selective about when we are playing it. Can you play. K-Q-10s, K-Qh? With As upcard in 1st seat? Yes but not always.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:19 pm

That is funny! 5 & 2, damn good!

So the dealer had to have as a minimum 3 trumps - that is 2 of the 3 unknown trumps: JS JC 9S? Easily calculated as 16%, which occurs about 1 in 6 hands on the average. Then a void to your to AC and either hearts or another diamond. But they could still euchre you if each had two trumps as well. So now the euchre rate jumps to 24%, 1 in 4 expected. So somewhat unlucky. Any thing can happen in the short run, and your unlucky number came up. And you if he is the maker you couldn't euchre him no matter what you led.

Imagine this, without those aces, the euchre rate escalates dramatically.

~Irishwolf

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:34 pm

Yes it does Irishwolf.

The euchre rates of course.

Yeah I was a tad unlucky.

Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:45 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 pm
Hi folks,

Please give me your wisdom on this situation that came up for me recently.
Here's an example hand I played the other day.

Score is 4-4, upcard is the (Card_A-C). I'm in Seat 1 with:

(Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_9-C) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D)

I pass in the first rd. Clubs is the best I've got, I have no 2nd round hand BUT I have satisfactory defense in the 2nd round given that I block reverse next. As I've said before, don't call marginal when you have reverse next blocked (excluding scenarios when your opponents are at 9 pts).

So I passed, it got passed around, and I passed again in the 2nd round. To my annoyance Seat 2 called spades giving me a nearly dead hand. Luckily my partner was loaded in spades and we set the maker without me taking 1 trick. It wasn't all luck of course. My partner is statistically more likely to have spades blocked than any other suit given the action in the 1st rd. This is why there are many 2nd rd hand combos where I will pass having reverse next blocked but not next. Euchre is a partnership game. You can't expect to do all the work!

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:52 pm

Yeah, I would never call clubs with that hand, if 2nd seat was waiting for a loner in spades, then so be it. With reverse next blocked there's no reason to try and swing a clubs play that is only protecting us from an opponents next call, in which case we may very well be euchred in clubs. I am however more hesitant to pass on relatively strong hands in reverse next such AK + left, even with two junk cards, when I hold hands such as these, I find the odds of 2nd seat calling next increase significantly, but whether that's my imagination or reality is up for debate.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:21 pm

jspectre wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:52 pm
Yeah, I would never call clubs with that hand, if 2nd seat was waiting for a loner in spades, then so be it. With reverse next blocked there's no reason to try and swing a clubs play that is only protecting us from an opponents next call, in which case we may very well be euchred in clubs.

I agree, although things change if our team is up 9-6/9-7. Then I'm not passing in the 2nd round from Seat 1 unless I have all suits blocked. Seat 2 never gets to be the hero. But we really wouldn't be in that spot with this hand cuz if we were up 9-6/9-7 we would just donate in the first round with this holding. The real F**K YOU spot is when we're up 8-6.

Up 8-6, I'm not donating with:

(Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_9-C) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D)

I'm gambling and going for the game winning euchre. But if the dealer passes now what? I'm not passing up 8-6 in the 2nd rd if I don't have everything blocked either.

In that case I would just grit my teeth and call diamonds, lead the (Card_10-D) and hope for the best. Left + 1 and a dirty boss card isn't the worst of situations. We can always get lucky.
jspectre wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:52 pm
I am however more hesitant to pass on relatively strong hands in reverse next such AK + left, even with two junk cards, when I hold hands such as these, I find the odds of 2nd seat calling next increase significantly, but whether that's my imagination or reality is up for debate.
I don't think you're imagining things. Simply based on the cards you hold in your hands, the odds the 2 seat is strong in Next go up. I think Left + 2 and nothing else, altho marginal, is strong enough to call when we don't block Next. I expect this holding to get euchred around 30% of the time tho. I would only pass Left + 2 and nothing else in that spot if I had all suits blocked.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 pm
Hi folks,

Please give me your wisdom on this situation that came up for me recently.
Another example hand:

Score is 0-0. Upcard is the (Card_A-S). I'm in Seat 1 with:

(Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C)

Now I would pass with the intention of calling next if the dealer passes. I would play it the same if I had:

(Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)

In these cases I'm trying to get my cake and eat it too. Try to set the dealer in the first round and hope to hit my P in the 2nd. 2 trump + a dirty boss card is plenty enough to call Next with.

Here's an example of calling Next with two low trump + no off aces from Eric Zalas' book:
EZ: "Hand 216. Dealer turns down the King of hearts. Seat #1 holds the King-Q of diamonds, Queen of spades, and the King-10 of clubs.. Seat #1 names "next" and plays diamonds trump. EO = -.883. N = 402

(Card_K-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-C)

Analysis: This hand has a dismal 36.65% win rate and a mean expected outcome of negative -.843 points per attempt when played next by seat #1 based on a sample size of 402 hands played. This hand gets clobbered 63.35% of the time based on the referenced data set. To be perfectly transparent I'm not aware of any euchre experts who recommend naming next with this hand.
The essential reasoning given is that while the player in seat #1 does hold the perfunctory minimum of two trump cards in the next suit, he does not hold a non-trump Ace. Therefore a two trump hand apparently is deemed by the conventional wisdom euchre experts as being "too risky" to name trump.
However at least one euchre expert feels that naming next while holding zero trump is perfectly acceptable (see hands 212, 213, and 214). Does that kind of logic confuse you? You're in good company; so am I."
Of course as I've mentioned before the flaw in the Author's logic is in forgetting that there is a cost to passing in euchre which opens up the possibility of a negative expected value call still being correct if the cost of passing has an even higher negative expected value. These are the kind of spots that separate expert play from mere average play.

Ok so let's do an EV analysis of this hand using the author's numbers (Euchre rate: 63.43%, 1 pt 34.58%, 2 pts 1.99%), assume the cost of passing is 1 point--a conservative estimate imo given that we block nothing with no off aces and we should be scared of the fact that we have no hearts in our hand (euchre is like Omaha poker, most cards are in play. If you don't have it someone else probably does, and Seat 2 is more likely to have a strong red hand than your partner in Seat 3). And again we will use this probability chart: http://members.tripod.com/borf_books/euchprob.htm

EV of calling: (.6343 x .38) + (.3458 x .57) + (.0199 x .64) = 45.09%

EV of passing: 45%


In this case it's a virtual tie. The EV of calling is basically the same as the EV of passing. I would still make this call every time in EV neutral situations becuz I at least get to control some of the variance of the game by never letting Seat 2 get a chance at a 4 pt play. And also, I'm not entirely convinced that the cost of passing is just around 1 point. With this holding it could easily be higher assuming Seat 2 is competent. So I prefer the aggressive route on this one.

So if we can reasonably justify a 'two low trump + no off aces' call then we should feel comfortable calling Next with two low trump + a dirty boss card like:

(Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C)

Mxx
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:20 am

Unread post by Mxx » Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:22 am

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:19 pm

So the dealer had to have as a minimum 3 trumps - that is 2 of the 3 unknown trumps: JS JC 9S? Easily calculated as 16%, which occurs about 1 in 6 hands on the average. Then a void to your to AC and either hearts or another diamond. But they could still euchre you if each had two trumps as well. So now the euchre rate jumps to 24%, 1 in 4 expected. So somewhat unlucky. Any thing can happen in the short run, and your unlucky number came up. And you if he is the maker you couldn't euchre him no matter what you led.

Imagine this, without those aces, the euchre rate escalates dramatically.

~Irishwolf
This logic is pretty convincing to me.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:46 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:35 pm
Tbolt65 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:15 pm
I intuitively put the hand at somewhere just over perhaps 50% win percentage for that hand. To make this a regular call at that win rate. It's going to look something like this. +1,-2,+1,-2,+1,-2, +1,+1,-2,+1/-2 (odds are on this 10th time it's coming up a -2 more often to get that low 50s percentage.)

As one can see your losing points.


There will be spots to make the call but as an every time call it hurts you too often and your leaking points away. You have to pick and choose situations that it's worth doing it. At 0-0 it could be one of the times because it is early but like I said, I really think you have to pick and choose your spots.


Passing is an option in second round. Like I said before you'll only get hurt vs a 4 bagger and that doesn't happen enough to justify calling in 2nd round. If your at 9-6, 9-7. Then ok. Otherwise no in my book. I don't like to give away "free points".


Tbolt65
Edward
Again it's not about how much this call costs. It's about the cost of calling vs the cost of passing. Based on your estimated win% you are implicitly assuming this call will cost around 1/2 a point, which is fine. There's just no way I can believe that passing this hand---a hand that blocks nothing and has no aces except a very dirty turned suit effective ace--will not cost us more than a half a point. I just don't buy it at all. Also, the idea that only a 4 point loner hurts us is erroneous. When we pass this kind of hand, the probability that our opponents score a point, 2 points, and 4 points goes up a lot and conversely the probability they get euchred goes way down. This all adds to the cost of passing. It's a number we cannot know but can only guesstimate. I suspect that passing this type of hand will cost us around 1 point. Now perhaps one could argue that if Seat 2 is passive/terrible or Seat 4 is aggressive/terrible passing can be right. Well I'm not interested in that permutation. What matters to me is what is the correct strategy assuming everyone is reasonably competent. I leave it to the reader to make their own in game adjustments depending on what kind of opponents they are facing.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:46 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:35 pm
Tbolt65 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:15 pm
I intuitively put the hand at somewhere just over perhaps 50% win percentage for that hand. To make this a regular call at that win rate. It's going to look something like this. +1,-2,+1,-2,+1,-2, +1,+1,-2,+1/-2 (odds are on this 10th time it's coming up a -2 more often to get that low 50s percentage.)

As one can see your losing points.


There will be spots to make the call but as an every time call it hurts you too often and your leaking points away. You have to pick and choose situations that it's worth doing it. At 0-0 it could be one of the times because it is early but like I said, I really think you have to pick and choose your spots.


Passing is an option in second round. Like I said before you'll only get hurt vs a 4 bagger and that doesn't happen enough to justify calling in 2nd round. If your at 9-6, 9-7. Then ok. Otherwise no in my book. I don't like to give away "free points".


Tbolt65
Edward
Again it's not about how much this call costs. It's about the cost of calling vs the cost of passing. Based on your estimated win% you are implicitly assuming this call will cost around 1/2 a point, which is fine. There's just no way I can believe that passing this hand---a hand that blocks nothing and has no aces except a very dirty turned suit effective ace--will not cost us more than a half a point. I just don't buy it at all. Also, the idea that only a 4 point loner hurts us is erroneous. When we pass this kind of hand, the probability that our opponents score a point, 2 points, and 4 points goes up a lot and conversely the probability they get euchred goes way down. This all adds to the cost of passing. It's a number we cannot know but can only guesstimate. I suspect that passing this type of hand will cost us around 1 point. Now perhaps one could argue that if Seat 2 is passive/terrible or Seat 4 is aggressive/terrible passing can be right. Well I'm not interested in that permutation. What matters to me is what is the correct strategy assuming everyone is reasonably competent. I leave it to the reader to make their own in game adjustments depending on what kind of opponents they are facing.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1189
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:48 pm

Deleted duplicate post.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:49 pm

Deleted duplicate post.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:41 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:25 pm
Hi folks,

Please give me your wisdom on this situation that came up for me recently.

I am in first seat holding
(Card_Q-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-S)

The upcard is the AS. We are down 6-2.

What do you think?
I will apply BPS:
0.25 S1 R1
0.25 10s
0.50 Qs
0.50 Ks
0.75 2 Voids
0.50 3 Trump, no Bowers
-.25 Net value of As Up Card
2.50 Hand Value vs. 2.25 minimum. No Jacks or Aces to evaluate so:
_____Order expecting 70% success rate.

Change hand to:
(Card_9-D) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-S)
The upcard is the AS. We are down 7-2.
Replicates Dylan’s hand from the 01/27/2020 OE Games

I will apply BPS:
0.25 S1 R1
0.25 10s
0.50 Qs
0.50 Ks
0.25 1 Void
0.50 3 Trump, no Bowers
-.25 Net value of As Up Card
2.00 Hand Value vs. 2.25 minimum. No Jacks or Aces to evaluate so:
____Pass, only a 60% expectation of success. It is better to hope that Partner can save the day, unless Opponents have 8 or 9 points.

NOTE: The 2nd Void is the key in understanding why the first hand is valued at 2.50 vs. 2.0 for the 2nd hand with only 1 void. 2 Voids is a critical observation especially when it complements 3 trump.

Tbolt65
Posts: 487
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:54 pm

I agree. At 60 percent success rate. That's winning 6pts vs losing 8 pts. And that's at its optimal win percentage for the hand. It can and will get worse for a team if they keep calling this in the long run. You are Just giving up too many points.

For the math gurus I can't tell you how often seat 2, round 2 calls and makes 1pt, 2pt, or 4pts or the likelihood of them passing to my 3rd seat partner. But it's gotta be plus EV to pass here. The goal for any euchre player is trying to max/minimize points taken and given away. If one calls too much in bad spots such as this they put their team at risk for bleeding unnecessary points away.

Tbolt65
Edward

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