What do I call?

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jblowery
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

What do I call?

Post by jblowery » Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:44 am

This or something similar to this seems to happen quite a bit. Let's say for example the dealer (my partner) turns down a red card. I'm in Seat 2 holding the following cards. Which do I call? Clubs or spades?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

I think I'm a little stronger in clubs (because the ace becomes an off-suite ace in that case) but it is close. How about this one?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

In this case I may go spades.



MeeKer
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:57 pm

Post by MeeKer » Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:01 pm

Three trump vs. two trump? I would call spades.
I think I'm a little stronger in clubs (because the ace becomes an off-suite ace in that case) but it is close.
If you call clubs, the Ace is next and not a singleton: two strikes against it. Of course, you have the guaranteed trick with the right, but the rest is iffy, especially since your opponents passed on red. (But, Seat 1 also passed on calling trump so is probably quite weak in black.)

If you call spades, the Ace is the third highest card and you also have the second highest. You have at least one sure trick (if you play properly) and you could have two if the right comes out when you still have all three trump.

I think that the difference between a trump Queen and a trump 10 is not significant.

I'll wait and see what the experts say.

RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:48 pm

MeeKer wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:01 pm
Three trump vs. two trump? I would call spades.
I think I'm a little stronger in clubs (because the ace becomes an off-suite ace in that case) but it is close.
If you call clubs, the Ace is next and not a singleton: two strikes against it. Of course, you have the guaranteed trick with the right, but the rest is iffy, especially since your opponents passed on red. (But, Seat 1 also passed on calling trump so is probably quite weak in black.)

If you call spades, the Ace is the third highest card and you also have the second highest. You have at least one sure trick (if you play properly) and you could have two if the right comes out when you still have all three trump.

I think that the difference between a trump Queen and a trump 10 is not significant.

I'll wait and see what the experts say.
MeeKer is correct about the clubs call. That side ace isn't as valuable as it seems because it's next and not a singleton. There's only 5 cards in the next suit so if you have two, there are only three more out in the wild. The odds that somebody has a void are pretty high and if it's one of the opponents, you're just asking to get trumped. Realistically, you have one trick in clubs. I wouldn't count on that ten to walk, especially on a second round call.

You likely have two tricks in spades if you play it correctly. The left-ace is good for one guaranteed and will probably get you two if you're a little bit lucky. It still might only get you one trick though depending on how the right and king are played. Your side cards are pretty much worthless here.

An interesting way to play this hand if you are playing with the stick-the-dealer rule here is to pass and let your partner call either clubs or spades depending on which suit he is stronger in. You have a pretty good helper hand in either suit but you do not have a sure call in either suit either. It may be best then to just let him decide and you help. The dealer probably won't call red given that he turned down a red card. It's more likely he has the jack of spades and some black cards assisting. The real risk with this is that third seat will call red and try to go alone. You have no reliable way to stop such a call. I wouldn't risk this against a real aggressive opponent and I definitely would not if the opposing side has more than 5 points.

So, what's the best call? I'll admit, I'm leaning towards spades but you could really justify either black suit. If I'm against an amateur or a player that is otherwise not likely to try a loner in the next suit though, I'd pass and just go with whatever black suit the dealer calls.

With that said though, change that queen to anything but a spade and I'd say clubs is the better call.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:25 pm

jblowery wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:44 am
This or something similar to this seems to happen quite a bit. Let's say for example the dealer (my partner) turns down a red card. I'm in Seat 2 holding the following cards. Which do I call? Clubs or spades?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)
Let’s evaluate the hand.
But first, the strength of the turned down card is important! It could be an important factor, but let’s ignore it for now and see what happens:
0.50 Seat 2
0.25 Round 2
0.50 Reverse Next - 1.25 points so far, just for S2, R2, RN
Now in general 3 trump is better than 2 trump lets start with:
0.75 (Card_J-C)
0.50 (Card_A-S)
0.50 (Card_Q-S)
0.25 1 Void
0.50 the value of 3 trump min (0.75 R+2 or RA+1
3.75 Well above 2.00 min, in fact 95% expectation of taking 3 tricks myself

Now lets look at Clubs as trump
0.50 Seat 2
0.25 Round 2
0.50 Reverse Next - 1.25 points so far, just for S2, R2, RN
1.00 (Card_J-C)
0.25 (Card_10-C)
0.50 (Card_A-S) - Next A max value 0.50, no deduct for Doubleton
0.25. 1 Void in Hearts
3.25 vs. 3.75 in Spades, a clear advantage when you evaluate the power of 3 trump vs. 2 trump (as well as reduce the value of a Next Ace). I estimate a 10 percentage point improvement in my probability of success from 85% to 95%!

I see a serious improvement in 3 Spades vs. 2 Clubs
jblowery wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:44 am

I think I'm a little stronger in clubs (because the ace becomes an off-suite ace in that case) but it is close. How about this one?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

In this case I may go spades.
There is no difference with this hand, based on the BPS. The BPS (especially Basic, like this analysis), does not micro-analyze, it evaluates average values.At least half the value of an A, K or even Q is to draw out a Bower or to win a trick when partner has a Void. It is too small a difference relative to all the other variables.

If you did micro-analyze then you would conclude the the 2nd hand, calling Spades is weaker than the 1st hand by let’s say 0.125 point, to 3.625 points. The conclusion then is the 3.625 hand should be played but not the 3.75 hand?! Over analyzing misses the important point that 3 trump is superior to 2 trump under almost all circumstances. I will add the OE lesson that validates the value of 3 trump.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:03 pm

jblowery wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:44 am
This or something similar to this seems to happen quite a bit. Let's say for example the dealer (my partner) turns down a red card. I'm in Seat 2 holding the following cards. Which do I call? Clubs or spades?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

I think I'm a little stronger in clubs (because the ace becomes an off-suite ace in that case) but it is close. How about this one?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

In this case I may go spades.
I call spades in both cases. IOW what MeeKer said.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:17 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:48 pm
An interesting way to play this hand if you are playing with the stick-the-dealer rule here is to pass and let your partner call either clubs or spades depending on which suit he is stronger in. You have a pretty good helper hand in either suit but you do not have a sure call in either suit either. It may be best then to just let him decide and you help. The dealer probably won't call red given that he turned down a red card. It's more likely he has the jack of spades and some black cards assisting. The real risk with this is that third seat will call red and try to go alone. You have no reliable way to stop such a call. I wouldn't risk this against a real aggressive opponent and I definitely would not if the opposing side has more than 5 points.

So, what's the best call? I'll admit, I'm leaning towards spades but you could really justify either black suit. If I'm against an amateur or a player that is otherwise not likely to try a loner in the next suit though, I'd pass and just go with whatever black suit the dealer calls.
With just one small red card in our hand I wouldn't take the chance and pass regardless of the nature of 3rd seat. If the 3rd seat calls the other red our hand is dead or nearly dead. Our hand is just too strong to gamble that 3rd seat will pass also. We have Left + 2 in reverse next. That's a premium reverse next call, like near the top of our range, a range that should generally be very wide given that it's our job as a good partner in the 2nd rd to try to hit our partner's range when we can making sure Seat 3 never gets a chance at a 1 point, 2 point, or 4 point play. Never forget, even bad players get hands too. It's our job in the 2nd round to make sure they don't get to call with them.

Tbolt65
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:16 pm

jblowery wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:44 am
This or something similar to this seems to happen quite a bit. Let's say for example the dealer (my partner) turns down a red card. I'm in Seat 2 holding the following cards. Which do I call? Clubs or spades?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

I think I'm a little stronger in clubs (because the ace becomes an off-suite ace in that case) but it is close. How about this one?

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

In this case I may go spades.

I have played these types of hands both ways. My line of thinking is my partner turned down red. I'm going to try to hit him in black. It sometimes backfires especially when your partner is 4 suited but what can you do. Also semi-frequently your partner will be loaded in the other black with maybe 1 Trump in your suit. Those times you kick yourself and say why didn't I call the other black suit. LOL. Anyway there is a feel to this and you have to consider card distribution for your partners hand and your opponents. This comes with sizing up your opponents and what they are likely passing with. Sometimes it's a flip of a coin others you can be pretty reasonably sure. Euchre is a partnership game. If I wanted to play for myself then I'd be playing alone.

Tbolt65
Edward

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