Would you have ordered your partner?

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Mxx
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:20 am

Would you have ordered your partner?

Post by Mxx » Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm

Here's one I experienced today.
We are 8-7 down. I have the deal. I'm holding nothing of nothing. I turn down the (Card_10-D)

First seat passes and my partner calls spades. Which seems reasonable to me, although I'm not going to be much help. The hand plays out and we are euchred for a loss.

My partner was holding (Card_9-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_Q-D) (Card_J-C) (Card_J-S)

My partner appeared to be a decent player with 5 crowns ranking high 90s if you know that Euchre app. I can only assume my partner did not order me up as they thought 2 points was more likely in black and they had next covered.

For me, the more likely scenarios are (a) I'm holding the right and I pick it up anyway, possibly for 2 points or (b) first seat makes a call in next for one point.

If roles were reversed, I think I would have ordered that 10-D holding three myself. The likely result is 8-8 without the deal, but that is better than the possible alternatives.

What do you think?



RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:49 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm
Here's one I experienced today.
We are 8-7 down. I have the deal. I'm holding nothing of nothing. I turn down the (Card_10-D)

First seat passes and my partner calls spades. Which seems reasonable to me, although I'm not going to be much help. The hand plays out and we are euchred for a loss.

My partner was holding (Card_9-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_Q-D) (Card_J-C) (Card_J-S)

My partner appeared to be a decent player with 5 crowns ranking high 90s if you know that Euchre app. I can only assume my partner did not order me up as they thought 2 points was more likely in black and they had next covered.

For me, the more likely scenarios are (a) I'm holding the right and I pick it up anyway, possibly for 2 points or (b) first seat makes a call in next for one point.

If roles were reversed, I think I would have ordered that 10-D holding three myself. The likely result is 8-8 without the deal, but that is better than the possible alternatives.

What do you think?
This is a tough one. You definitely have a lot of help in diamonds if your partner picks up and you correctly assume that your partner probably won't pass on this if he's holding the right.

The usual reason to not order up your partner is because you don't want to stop them going alone and getting 4 points. That's probably not an issue here since you already have three so your partner probably isn't loaded to the teeth on trump. He might have a hand full of aces though and along with the right+1, that might be good for a sweep.

The flip side is this. If your partner passes, then you've got a really good chance to euchre the opponent on a reverse next call. You've also got the next loner stopped (although you don't have 2 tricks in next).

Honestly, at a score of 8-7, I'd probably pass here too. If my partner has the right, then he'll pick up and we've got a decent shot at 2 points here. If your partner passes, then it's pretty likely that he wouldn't have been able to help anyway so at best this would be a one point hand. I'm also willing to bet that the guy in first seat doesn't have much strength in diamonds or he'd have ordered up so odds are he won't have the left on a next call either so he might not try that. You've got a guaranteed trick in next so you know that worst case scenario is that opposition orders hearts and you keep them down to only one point.

If opposition orders reverse next then you've got a good shot at euchring them and getting two points. Or if your partner ends up getting stuck with the hand, you've got at least a guaranteed trick in whatever they call.

I'd pass here.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:30 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm
Here's one I experienced today.
We are 8-7 down. I have the deal. I'm holding nothing of nothing. I turn down the (Card_10-D)

First seat passes and my partner calls spades. Which seems reasonable to me, although I'm not going to be much help. The hand plays out and we are euchred for a loss.

My partner was holding (Card_9-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_Q-D) (Card_J-C) (Card_J-S)

My partner appeared to be a decent player with 5 crowns ranking high 90s if you know that Euchre app. I can only assume my partner did not order me up as they thought 2 points was more likely in black and they had next covered.

For me, the more likely scenarios are (a) I'm holding the right and I pick it up anyway, possibly for 2 points or (b) first seat makes a call in next for one point.

If roles were reversed, I think I would have ordered that 10-D holding three myself. The likely result is 8-8 without the deal, but that is better than the possible alternatives.

What do you think?
If I was in Seat 2, I would have ordered your (Card_10-D) .
Using my BPS (Bidding Point System, see post), I evaluate the hand:
0.50 Seat 2
0.25 9d
0.75 Jh
0.50 Qd
0.25 1 Void
0.50 3 trump
2.75 points, 2.0 points testing at 65% success, 2.75 pts 72%. I am inclined to order (help).
I also have 3 jacks, so I look further. In Reverse Next, I own 2 tricks. In Next, the greater concern, I own 1 trick. I'm short of an euchre hand. So I analyze my Round 2 hand:
0.50 Seat 2
0.50 Round 2 Reverse Next
1.00 Right
0.75 Left
0.25 1 Void
3.00 points marginally better than my Round 1 Order, but obviously I only own 2 tricks. And my Bowers are likely to wipe out the value of Partner's trump and wipe out the value of Reverse Next. So deduct 0.50 for a value of 2.50 points, less than Round 1. So order from Seat 2 in Round 1.
I realize that I look like I'm manipulating the BPS. But BPS is best at analyzing "normal" hands, the 80% of the hands with normal card distribution. Having both black bowers is not in the 80% realm. Using my simplified statistics, your odds of having both bowers is:
5x4/24=20/24, and adding the 2nd bower is
4x1x1/23= 4/23
20/24x4/23= 80/1852= 14.5%, so 85.5% of the time you will NOT have 2 Bowers
What do you want to take away from my post?
1. If you use the BPS at the Basic Level, Order in this scenario, you have 2.75 points vs. 2.0 points for an edge hand.
2. You can continue to improve your game, look at Round 2, take it to the next level, understand that quantitative analysis is not as accurate as detailed analysis, in this case continue to analyze, in this case, 2 Bowers is still limited to taking 2 tricks, you have a microscopic opportunity at a 3rd trick, you have an 80% chance of your partner taking the 3rd trick. You are better off keeping it simple and ordering the first hand that gives you a 65% opportunity to earn at least 1 point.
3. Err on the side of aggressiveness. It's a game of chance. Take a chance.

RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:42 am

3.00 points marginally better than my Round 1 Order, but obviously I only own 2 tricks.
That's the thing... you're going to have to depend on your partner either way here. Here's the thing though... you only have 1 guaranteed trick if you order. Yes, three trump including the left will usually take two tricks but I've also been set quite often with hands stronger than this one (you're three-suited so your chances to trump are more limited than you might think), especially since you are in second seat so third seat still has a chance to overtrump you. Actually, if third seat has the right and a black ace then you could be in trouble here. That's mathematically just as likely if your partner having it. If you were the dealer holding this, I agree that it's a must call (and I'd probably go alone).

By calling here, you're realistically depending on your partner having a void in the lead suit (and third seat doesn't thus allowing them to trump with the 9) and a side ace or your partner having the right and ideally a side ace.

This is why I'd let your partner make the call about whether or not to pick up here. You can help in any suit no matter what happens. Remember... if you get set here then you lose at a score of 8-7.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:59 am

Mxx wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm
Here's one I experienced today.
We are 8-7 down. I have the deal. I'm holding nothing of nothing. I turn down the (Card_10-D)

First seat passes and my partner calls spades. Which seems reasonable to me, although I'm not going to be much help. The hand plays out and we are euchred for a loss.

My partner was holding (Card_9-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_Q-D) (Card_J-C) (Card_J-S)
My speculation is that he reflexively passed becuz he had everything blocked and an easy reverse next call in the 2nd round. I don't view this pass as a terrible pass, but I still don't like it. I'm calling diamonds in the first round with my team having 4 out of the 7 trump accounted for and a guaranteed void. I would only consider passing 3 trump from the 2 spot if I had a euchre hand. This hand is a premium stopper hand but not a euchre hand as we only have 1 trick in next.
Mxx wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm
My partner appeared to be a decent player with 5 crowns ranking high 90s if you know that Euchre app. I can only assume my partner did not order me up as they thought 2 points was more likely in black and they had next covered.
I would say 90s to 100 players are very good at playing their 5 cards. They play them better than say 40/50 players. But beyond that they are nothing special. The truly great players don't just play their 5 cards, and they don't just play the 10 cards of their team, they play 20 cards, I.E. they play the entire table. Those players are rare. Maybe 10 out of 10K play at that level which is kind've sad becuz it doesn't really take some special talent to get to that level. All one has to do is study this site, read all the articles/lessons, and read this forum and they're well on their way to "playing the table".
Mxx wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm
If roles were reversed, I think I would have ordered that 10-D holding three myself. The likely result is 8-8 without the deal, but that is better than the possible alternatives.

What do you think?
I wouldn't focus on results, your partner did make a suboptimal play imo, but what really sunk your guys' ship was more bad luck than bad play. Calling reverse next with both black bowers and going set was a pretty harsh beat.

jblowery
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Post by jblowery » Wed Oct 09, 2019 3:29 pm

I always order up from 2nd if I already hold 3 of that suite. Maybe not in this case though. If I were your partner I could have potentially just let it go around and go with whatever was called. He had everything blocked, a great chance at a euchre (with 2 of the 3 other suites) and could help you get whatever you were strongest in (if it got back to you). This is a tough one for me. More risk with letting it go but more potential reward also. I'm thinking I'd probably let it go.

RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:51 am

jblowery wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 3:29 pm
I always order up from 2nd if I already hold 3 of that suite. Maybe not in this case though. If I were your partner I could have potentially just let it go around and go with whatever was called. He had everything blocked, a great chance at a euchre (with 2 of the 3 other suites) and could help you get whatever you were strongest in (if it got back to you). This is a tough one for me. More risk with letting it go but more potential reward also. I'm thinking I'd probably let it go.
That's what I was thinking too. Frankly, this hand isn't good for two tricks in red as it stands. Yes, if your partner has the right then it's definitely a point maker. In that case though, a skilled partner would never pass so it's easiest just to let him decide whether to pick up or not. You are in a decent position to euchre the maker if third seat is drunk enough to order up, btw.

Basically, you're going to be really depending on your partner to be able to take two tricks if diamonds is trump. If they've got a hand that's able to do that then great, I'd just let him name trump and help.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:52 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:51 am

That's what I was thinking too. Frankly, this hand isn't good for two tricks in red as it stands..

Basically, you're going to be really depending on your partner to be able to take two tricks if diamonds is trump. If they've got a hand that's able to do that then great, I'd just let him name trump and help.
I estimate that Seat 2’s 3 diamonds and a void have a 90% chance of earning 2 tricks. I sense that you are not accounting for the power of having 3 trump and the void. Being able to trump the void and/or draw trump because you have 3 trumps adds significantly to the value of this hand. (Wes points out that your team controls 4 of the 7 trump. That is another strength of this hand). Assigning a value to 3 trump (0.50) and the void i(0.25) Is how I analyze the value of these 2 factors. Wes’ point(knowing your team has a 4th trump) is included in the value of Seat 2 (0.50). I am confident that my quantitative approach (simply assigning a value to each factor) consistently reflects the strengths of a hand.

As for counting on your partner for 1 trick, I rely on a simpler analysis. Counting on your partner for 1 trick is the wisdom of the wise players. I assign it an 80% chance of working. If it didn’t have an 80% chance of working, then it wouldn’t be taught as a key concept from wise players.

So, I see an 80 to 90% chance of getting at least 1 point on this hand, from Seat 2. 65%.is my minimum (winning 2 out of 3 times), point of ordering. Having an 80 to 90% chance is significantly better. And the extra is more than enough to eliminate any temptation to look at my 2 black jacks. So I am ordering the dealer with 3 trumps and a void.

And like Wes, I am not going to second guess my approach if I lose any particular hand. My analysis is that I have an 80 to 90% chance of winning. That also means that I have a 10 to 20% of being euchred. I will lose if the cards break against me. Experience from trying this approach is the only way to test whether the approach is profitable of not. And I have to remember that the goal is to win more often, not to avoid being euchred.

RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:10 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:52 pm
RedDuke wrote:
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:51 am

That's what I was thinking too. Frankly, this hand isn't good for two tricks in red as it stands..

Basically, you're going to be really depending on your partner to be able to take two tricks if diamonds is trump. If they've got a hand that's able to do that then great, I'd just let him name trump and help.
I estimate that Seat 2’s 3 diamonds and a void have a 90% chance of earning 2 tricks. I sense that you are not accounting for the power of having 3 trump and the void. Being able to trump the void and/or draw trump because you have 3 trumps adds significantly to the value of this hand. (Wes points out that your team controls 4 of the 7 trump. That is another strength of this hand). Assigning a value to 3 trump (0.50) and the void i(0.25) Is how I analyze the value of these 2 factors. Wes’ point(knowing your team has a 4th trump) is included in the value of Seat 2 (0.50). I am confident that my quantitative approach (simply assigning a value to each factor) consistently reflects the strengths of a hand.

As for counting on your partner for 1 trick, I rely on a simpler analysis. Counting on your partner for 1 trick is the wisdom of the wise players. I assign it an 80% chance of working. If it didn’t have an 80% chance of working, then it wouldn’t be taught as a key concept from wise players.

So, I see an 80 to 90% chance of getting at least 1 point on this hand, from Seat 2. 65%.is my minimum (winning 2 out of 3 times), point of ordering. Having an 80 to 90% chance is significantly better. And the extra is more than enough to eliminate any temptation to look at my 2 black jacks. So I am ordering the dealer with 3 trumps and a void.

And like Wes, I am not going to second guess my approach if I lose any particular hand. My analysis is that I have an 80 to 90% chance of winning. That also means that I have a 10 to 20% of being euchred. I will lose if the cards break against me. Experience from trying this approach is the only way to test whether the approach is profitable of not. And I have to remember that the goal is to win more often, not to avoid being euchred.
I'm going to argue with you about that 90% number. I don't have the math to prove it, but I've been euchred far too often holding a hand stronger than this to believe that. I'd say that empirically the odds of succeeding are about 70%. Still strong enough to be worth considering but...

The hand is stronger in black. You still have a void and two guaranteed tricks with the bower. If your partner has a strong enough hand to make this good in red, I maintain that he will pick up. You have a good hand to pass because you can be somewhat neutral no matter what trump is.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:07 pm

I am confident, based on previous posts, that both of us agree to disagree.

Let’s continue the conversation. This is a better post than 85 views and a handful of posts.

I agree that this is an “edge hand”, a place that we are going to disagree and post our thinking on the particulars.

I short-cutted and overstated this hand. IMO, I have an 90% chance of taking 2 tricks. I assume an 80% chance of Partner taking 1 trick. Basic probability is 90% x 80%= 72% chance of making at least 1 point. (I try to be extremely careful, especially on OE, but still mess up)!

My BPS gave me a 72% chance of success (See my previous post in this thread). Notice how closely they match! The BPS is nothing more than a numbers based compilation of the wisdom that I have found on OE (Ohio Euchre).So I expect to be euchred more than 1 out of 4 hands. Most people run from 25(28%) failure. I see an euchre and I firstly look at card distribution, and secondly look at how I played the hand. I’m not upset if the “euchre gods” were against me. Isn’t that a Rule of Hoyle, “Do not be upset at the hand that the euchre gods have dealt thee”?

Now let’s address, “the hand is stronger in black.” I even gave you ammunition, by informing you that the BPS rated the Round 1 hand at 2.75 and the Round 2 hand rated at 3.0. You should pass and hope to call in the 2nd round, right? Not so fast. What did we fail to quantify? Are you guaranteed to have the opportunity to call in Rond 2? NO! You have to assign a value if you must have every detail analyzed. You need to subtract 0.25, the minimum, equalizing the value of the Round 1 and Round 2 hands. [Thinking this through, unless I am in Seat 1, with a Next call in Round 2, I would subtract 0.50 from the value of the Round 2 analysis. {Frankly, until this post, I have not thought this through to this point}.] We now have a 2.75: 2.75 stalemate. Always choose the now over the possible in a stalemate. Personally, I realize that my analysis is really a guide and not perfect. So I favor now (Round 1) vs. Round 2. I favor Aggressive vs. Passive. Per OE, Euchre favors the aggressive player.

Contra-negatively, I do not address how I can lose the hand, unless I am in a situation where I can calculate the odds (I use odds and probability interchangeably). So I never address how I can lose the hand in calling. I know I have a possibility of losing. So why bother.

I will look at how to lose the hand, while playing my cards. It happens mostly while calling Alone. First, make sure than I am not euchred, Secondly, play to get 5 points. Wes has also made me think defensively. Playing your cards, play to take a trick and stop Opponents from getting 2 points. Calling, block, unless there is a good reason not to block.

I have more, but it is time for RedDuke, and everyone else to weigh in with their response. I did my best to give everyone something that about which they can disagree!

Mxx
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:20 am

Post by Mxx » Sun Oct 13, 2019 7:07 am

The hand is stronger in black. You still have a void and two guaranteed tricks with the bower. If your partner has a strong enough hand to make this good in red, I maintain that he will pick up. You have a good hand to pass because you can be somewhat neutral no matter what trump is


Statistically if you have three trump in 2nd seat then each of the other players have 1 each. First seat may have <1 because they passed. If your dealer partner doesn't have the right, chances are they will pass (in my view they should pick up if they aren't strong in next but that rarely happens on the app I play).

That leaves first seat with a highly probable next call because you're holding both black bowers.

For these reasons I don't think it's viable to wait for your dealer partner to pick up.

RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:17 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Oct 13, 2019 7:07 am
The hand is stronger in black. You still have a void and two guaranteed tricks with the bower. If your partner has a strong enough hand to make this good in red, I maintain that he will pick up. You have a good hand to pass because you can be somewhat neutral no matter what trump is


Statistically if you have three trump in 2nd seat then each of the other players have 1 each. First seat may have <1 because they passed. If your dealer partner doesn't have the right, chances are they will pass (in my view they should pick up if they aren't strong in next but that rarely happens on the app I play).

That leaves first seat with a highly probable next call because you're holding both black bowers.

For these reasons I don't think it's viable to wait for your dealer partner to pick up.
If your dealer partner doesn't have the right, then you have a decent chance of being euchred here if you order up. It's actually better to have first seat call next in that case because you're holding the right in the next suit so you can ensure that the enemy will only get one point. If you order up and get euchred then you lose. If the dealer does have the right though and doesn't pick up then he's a bonehead.

You're correct that the worst scenario for you is to pass and then have first seat call next. You will still limit them to one point though.

In the app that you're talking about, it's also rather rare to see someone call if they are not holding the right. You are holding the right of every suit except for the turn suit. Thus, unless someone is very strong in next, they probably won't call.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:57 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:10 am
I'm going to argue with you about that 90% number. I don't have the math to prove it, but I've been euchred far too often holding a hand stronger than this to believe that. I'd say that empirically the odds of succeeding are about 70%. Still strong enough to be worth considering but...

The hand is stronger in black. You still have a void and two guaranteed tricks with the bower. If your partner has a strong enough hand to make this good in red, I maintain that he will pick up. You have a good hand to pass because you can be somewhat neutral no matter what trump is.
When I said, "I'm calling diamonds in the first round with my team having 4 out of the 7 trump accounted for and a guaranteed void", I was implying that our team doesn't have a guaranteed void in the 2nd round which is obviously false. That was a brainfart on my part. That said, I'm not passing 3 trump from the 2 spot unless I have a euchre hand. But that's just a rule of thumb I go by, that's not an argument. I mean I think calling diamonds is best but who really knows without real math, like euchre simulator math. This is one of those close unresolvable (for now) spots imo. I certainly see the argument for the other side.

One point that may be worth mentioning here is the costliest euchre there is, theoretically speaking, is when you get euchred on a hand that has all suits blocked. When you get euchred with this type of holding you never block a 4 loner, and you almost never block a 2 point call (once in a while you will get squeezed off of a guarded left). So If I'm right that diamonds is the correct call, our euchre rate will need to be significantly lower than whatever the usual euchre rate is in this spot to justify my claim. To contrast, this is why we need to be super aggressive from seat 1, round 2 when we block nothing becuz in that instance the theoretical cost of getting euchred is probably so low that calling something is a virtual freeroll. I.E. when you block nothing in that spot the cost of passing is probably high enough that you might as well gamble and call something at most scores. What I'm saying here doesn't really add much to the argument in this thread except to point out that for me or Richard to be right we have to clear a bigger hurdle than usual becuz we have all suits blocked.

Tbolt65
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:49 pm

Mxx wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm
Here's one I experienced today.
We are 8-7 down. I have the deal. I'm holding nothing of nothing. I turn down the (Card_10-D)

First seat passes and my partner calls spades. Which seems reasonable to me, although I'm not going to be much help. The hand plays out and we are euchred for a loss.

My partner was holding (Card_9-D) (Card_J-H) (Card_Q-D) (Card_J-C) (Card_J-S)

My partner appeared to be a decent player with 5 crowns ranking high 90s if you know that Euchre app. I can only assume my partner did not order me up as they thought 2 points was more likely in black and they had next covered.

For me, the more likely scenarios are (a) I'm holding the right and I pick it up anyway, possibly for 2 points or (b) first seat makes a call in next for one point.

If roles were reversed, I think I would have ordered that 10-D holding three myself. The likely result is 8-8 without the deal, but that is better than the possible alternatives.

What do you think?
At that score, yes, because you are not guaranteed a set/euchre in any other hands, nor make it if you call either black. I take this axiom that I have coined myself. "Never bag your partner" from seat two when you have a biddable hand and a hand that is not likely to euchre anything else. With the score of 8-7 them, you don't want them to get it to their deal at 9-7.


Tbolt65
Edward

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