Mxx wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 pm
Here's one I experienced today.
We are 8-7 down. I have the deal. I'm holding nothing of nothing. I turn down the
First seat passes and my partner calls spades. Which seems reasonable to me, although I'm not going to be much help. The hand plays out and we are euchred for a loss.
My partner was holding
My partner appeared to be a decent player with 5 crowns ranking high 90s if you know that Euchre app. I can only assume my partner did not order me up as they thought 2 points was more likely in black and they had next covered.
For me, the more likely scenarios are (a) I'm holding the right and I pick it up anyway, possibly for 2 points or (b) first seat makes a call in next for one point.
If roles were reversed, I think I would have ordered that 10-D holding three myself. The likely result is 8-8 without the deal, but that is better than the possible alternatives.
What do you think?
If I was in Seat 2, I would have ordered your

.
Using my BPS (Bidding Point System, see post), I evaluate the hand:
0.50 Seat 2
0.25 9d
0.75 Jh
0.50 Qd
0.25 1 Void
0.50 3 trump
2.75 points, 2.0 points testing at 65% success, 2.75 pts 72%. I am inclined to order (help).
I also have 3 jacks, so I look further. In Reverse Next, I own 2 tricks. In Next, the greater concern, I own 1 trick. I'm short of an euchre hand. So I analyze my Round 2 hand:
0.50 Seat 2
0.50 Round 2 Reverse Next
1.00 Right
0.75 Left
0.25 1 Void
3.00 points marginally better than my Round 1 Order, but obviously I only own 2 tricks. And my Bowers are likely to wipe out the value of Partner's trump and wipe out the value of Reverse Next. So deduct 0.50 for a value of 2.50 points, less than Round 1. So order from Seat 2 in Round 1.
I realize that I look like I'm manipulating the BPS. But BPS is best at analyzing "normal" hands, the 80% of the hands with normal card distribution. Having both black bowers is not in the 80% realm. Using my simplified statistics, your odds of having both bowers is:
5x4/24=20/24, and adding the 2nd bower is
4x1x1/23= 4/23
20/24x4/23= 80/1852= 14.5%, so 85.5% of the time you will NOT have 2 Bowers
What do you want to take away from my post?
1. If you use the BPS at the Basic Level, Order in this scenario, you have 2.75 points vs. 2.0 points for an edge hand.
2. You can continue to improve your game, look at Round 2, take it to the next level, understand that quantitative analysis is not as accurate as detailed analysis, in this case continue to analyze, in this case, 2 Bowers is still limited to taking 2 tricks, you have a microscopic opportunity at a 3rd trick, you have an 80% chance of your partner taking the 3rd trick. You are better off keeping it simple and ordering the first hand that gives you a 65% opportunity to earn at least 1 point.
3. Err on the side of aggressiveness. It's a game of chance. Take a chance.