Third Seat First Round Loner

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RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Third Seat First Round Loner

Post by RedDuke » Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:35 am

I doubt anybody would argue that third seat is by far the most difficult position to make a loner from, especially if it's in the first round. This is due to the fact that you are between the two defenders and you gave the dealer a trump card.

This was from a game I played earlier today. I'm in third seat with this:

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_Q-H)

Upcard is the (Card_9-S) .

Score was 7-3 in our opponents' favor.

I ordered the dealer up and went alone.

There are two trouble spots with this hand. The first is if the dealer is void in hearts. In that case, the ace won't walk on a hearts lead because the dealer will trump the ace. This could even turn into a euchre depending on what else he holds but the odds of that are slim.

The other trouble spot is the dealer having a void in the first lead suit (if it's clubs or diamonds) and also holding the ace of trump. This puts him in a pretty good position to take out the king.

Given this, the odds are against this hand actually making the four point sweep but I thought it was worth the risk given the score. I did manage to get the king through (the opponent led the Ace of Diamonds and I played the king - dealer wasn't void and had to play his 10) and turned the hand into a one-pointer but it did not take the sweep. This hand would be a no brainer loner with any other seat position, which shows how hard it is to make a loner from third seat.

Would you have tried this as a loner? If not, what do you think is the minimum needed to try a loner from third seat in round 1?



icanplay
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:05 pm

Post by icanplay » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:14 pm

Hello,
I would attempt the loaner in this situation. When I feel a game starting to slip away I think it best to start calling more aggressive. If they get to eight or nine before you get to six, the prognosis is poor for your team....
Ordering up a trump to the opponent and having them discard makes it difficult. They throw after you, and you do not get the first lead. All this makes it hard, but this is not a super long shot loaner call. I would put the chances at about 1 in 3, or maybe 1 in 4.... To me that makes it worth the gamble because your team is down a significant amount of point. Anyway, that is my initial thought.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:14 pm

I would call Alone in a heart beat down 3-7. I would even do it, being down by 2 or more and Opponents having 7 or less. The odds of making 4 (20-30%) is approximately equal to the average odds of the teams who has 3 points(20 -30%). Calling Alone with this hand is probably the only chance for your team to get into the game. It is a game of chance! Take the chance.

More analytically, my BPS system, assigns this hand a rating of 4.25. Based on logic and experience, 1.25 points will win a trick (95% or more). So based on that information, this hand should earn 3.4 tricks. If I expect 3 or more tricks, I'm not concerned about being euchred. So I am eager to call alone, with just that information.

Next, I see how easily I can take 5 tricks. I am definitely going alone at any score, except 8-8, 8-9 or 9-9.

Next, looking more deeply, my Right, Left combination is super-strong. The A, Q of hearts is super-strong. Partner can only help me if he holds (Card_A-S) and/or (Card_K-H). If I go alone, partner's cards are out of play and insignificant. If Opponents play the "Next Convention Against Seat 3 Alones", I will play both bowers. Sure you can find a few combinations, that can cause an alone to backfire. IMO, those hands have a less than a 1 % probability each and easily less than 5% in total. I ignore probabilities of less than 5%. So I am going alone even at 8-8,8-9 or 9-9.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:10 am

RedDuke wrote:
Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:35 am
.
This was from a game I played earlier today. I'm in third seat with this:

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_Q-H)

Upcard is the (Card_9-S) .

Score was 7-3 in our opponents' favor.

Would you have tried this as a loner? If not, what do you think is the minimum needed to try a loner from third seat in round 1?
Definitely gotta go for 4 here, especially down 7-3, but I would go alone with this holding from the 3rd spot at a neutral score also. This hand is strong enough.

Down 7-3, I would also go alone with these holdings (assume same 9s upcard):

(Card_J-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-H) (Card_9-H)

(Card_J-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_A-H)

(Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_A-D)

(Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_K-D) (Card_Q-D)

(Card_K-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_9-H)

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H)

(Card_J-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-D) (Card_10-D)

(Card_J-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-D) (Card_Q-D)

(Card_A-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-D)

You get the idea. You're down 7-3. It's time to go into MAKE PLAYS mode.

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