Great analysis RedDuke.
Your analysis reflects my Quantitative Bidding System, aka Bidding Point System (BPS). This point more advanced than my original post. Your hand in Round 2, Seat 4, Clubs, would be:
0.50 Seat 4
0.25 Round 2
0.25 Reverse Next
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25 Diamond Void
3.50 Total points
The system is based on the Right having a value of 1.00 trump. Other values are relative to the Right. Since Euchre is a game of chance, it takes 1.25 points to have a 99% chance of winning a point. This hand earns 3.50 total points or a 99% chance of earning 2.8 points. I constantly evaluate these results. If we ignore the details, the big picture is that we have a 90-95% chance of taking 3 tricks with this hand.
The 90-95% chance of earning 3 tricks, and euchring the opponent matches your analysis of your actual results. How often would Opponent have 4 trump and an off suit King? 90-95% of the time feels right, matches my basic probability calculations and does not concern you, RedDuke, and your deeper probability capabilities.
So my point 1 is, Euchre is a game a chance. If Opponent has a hand that will only happen 5-10% of the time, understand that your call was correct and that the outcome was expected every so often.
Point 2 is that my Quantitative Bidding System, aka Bidding Point System (BPS), simplifies the analysis. It works for basic players at their levels. It works for above average players at their levels. It is easily refined to work for advanced players. In fact it is based on information from Ohio Echre advanced players! It simply adds a numerical value to analyzing a hand.
Point 3 is handling the bad emotions of not winning. If I understand that Opponent having 4 trump and a King will only happen 5 to 10% of the time, but it happened, I can easily deal with the negative feelings. That allows me to clear my mind, focus on the next hand and win more often.