Interesting Right + 0 Scenario

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RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Interesting Right + 0 Scenario

Post by RedDuke » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:09 am

This one came up last night. Let's see what you guys think about it.

I'm the dealer holding:

(Card_A-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_9-H)

Upcard is (Card_J-D) .

Everybody passes and it comes around to me. Would you pass or pick-up here?

This one is an interesting scenario because you'd have a hand full of aces and the right if you pick up, but such a hand is not really that good if your opponents are loaded up on trump. In particular, if the enemy has left+2, you could be in real trouble here. Odds are your partner is not loaded up on diamonds here or they would have ordered you. At the same time, this hand is a point maker if you can get at least one or two of those aces through.

I forget what this hand was at score wise in the game that I played but let us assume a neutral score like 0-0. I think we can all agree that you have to pick-up if the opponents are at 9.

I'll let you know how this actually played out after I hear some of your responses.



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:20 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:09 am
This one came up last night. Let's see what you guys think about it.

I'm the dealer holding:

(Card_A-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_9-H)

Upcard is (Card_J-D) .

Everybody passes and it comes around to me. Would you pass or pick-up here?
This IS an interesting hand. You actually have a decent marginal loner should you pick up, a 1 trump loner, but a loner nonetheless. It's not that hard to make 4 points with this configuration and it actually doesn't get euchred that often despite it's apparent kamikaze nature.

However, the other cards in your hand should drive us in another direction. If we pass we have a super strong euchre hand and a good spade loner in the 2nd round if the action gets back to us. Becuz of that I would pass this hand at every score with the exception of maybe 9-9. I would even consider passing at 9-9 if I have a partner who correctly calls very aggressively at 9-9 from the 2 seat. In that case his pass would signal that he has 1 trump or less. Your team may then have a better chance of winning in the 2nd round given your strong holding. Bottom line: with the exception of maybe 9-9, I would never pick up with 1 trump when I have such a strong euchre hand should I pass.

Change your hand ever so slightly and it changes everything. Say we alter your hand to this:

(Card_A-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_9-H)

Upcard is a (Card_J-D)

Now I'm never passing at any score. Right + 0 + 3 off aces is too strong of a hand to pass when I don't block all suits. And now it's just a question of whether I'm going alone or not. I like to gamble so I tend to go alone with this configuration at all scores unless my team has 8+. Whatever you think about going alone or not, remember that down 9-6/9-7/8-6/any score where your team is down a lot you MUST go alone with this hand. This is an excellent hail mary/comeback hand.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:33 pm

Wes nailed every situation but as usual left me scratching my head! Then it dawned on me, a next Loner is blocked! The (Card_A-H) is protected and blocks a heart loner! The (Card_J-D) is turned down, consequently the (Card_9-H) is enough to protect the ace! Thank you Wes for taking the time for sharing your experience and elevating my awareness once more.

Hey, who else missed that a Next Loner was blocked? Or was it just me?

RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:52 pm

First off, let me tell you how this actually played out in the game.

I passed on this. First seat promptly calls clubs and leads a low club. My partner played the right, third seat showed void, and my partner's right ate the club ace. Later in the hand, my left took another trick. I was unable to make any of the aces good.

It turned out that the guy in first seat had four trumps and an offsuit king. My partner had the right and a bunch of trash cards and I, of course, had the left-ace plus a couple of offsuit aces. Third seat had pretty much nothing to make a difference with this particular hand.

This is definitely a scenario that does not happen often. In fact, if I wouldn't have thrown off the wrong ace against one of the trump leads, then my side would have had this euchre.

Although this particular hand went against my pass call, it actually reinforces that Wes is correct here that passing is the correct move. The guy in first seat was holding four trumps and still my hand would have been enough to euchre him if he wouldn't have gotten doubly lucky and had me throw off the wrong ace on a trick. The odds of this hand playing out the one that it did in my game are very low. Passing is definitely the correct move when you are in a situation like the one shown.

Of course, like Wes said, the situation changes somewhat if we change this hand somewhere. If that jack of spades had been anything except for a black jack, then first seat would have had a very good loner hand in reverse next.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:29 pm

Great analysis RedDuke.

Your analysis reflects my Quantitative Bidding System, aka Bidding Point System (BPS). This point more advanced than my original post. Your hand in Round 2, Seat 4, Clubs, would be:
0.50 Seat 4
0.25 Round 2
0.25 Reverse Next
0.50 (Card_A-C)
0.75 (Card_J-S)
0.50 (Card_A-S)
0.50 (Card_A-H)
0.25 Diamond Void
3.50 Total points

The system is based on the Right having a value of 1.00 trump. Other values are relative to the Right. Since Euchre is a game of chance, it takes 1.25 points to have a 99% chance of winning a point. This hand earns 3.50 total points or a 99% chance of earning 2.8 points. I constantly evaluate these results. If we ignore the details, the big picture is that we have a 90-95% chance of taking 3 tricks with this hand.

The 90-95% chance of earning 3 tricks, and euchring the opponent matches your analysis of your actual results. How often would Opponent have 4 trump and an off suit King? 90-95% of the time feels right, matches my basic probability calculations and does not concern you, RedDuke, and your deeper probability capabilities.

So my point 1 is, Euchre is a game a chance. If Opponent has a hand that will only happen 5-10% of the time, understand that your call was correct and that the outcome was expected every so often.

Point 2 is that my Quantitative Bidding System, aka Bidding Point System (BPS), simplifies the analysis. It works for basic players at their levels. It works for above average players at their levels. It is easily refined to work for advanced players. In fact it is based on information from Ohio Echre advanced players! It simply adds a numerical value to analyzing a hand.

Point 3 is handling the bad emotions of not winning. If I understand that Opponent having 4 trump and a King will only happen 5 to 10% of the time, but it happened, I can easily deal with the negative feelings. That allows me to clear my mind, focus on the next hand and win more often.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:31 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:33 pm
Wes nailed every situation but as usual left me scratching my head! Then it dawned on me, a next Loner is blocked! The (Card_A-H) is protected and blocks a heart loner! The (Card_J-D) is turned down, consequently the (Card_9-H) is enough to protect the ace! Thank you Wes for taking the time for sharing your experience and elevating my awareness once more.

Hey, who else missed that a Next Loner was blocked? Or was it just me?
Not only is a next loner blocked, but look how much trouble even a strong next call will be in against your holding. For example say Seat 1 calls Next with this:

(Card_J-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_K-C) (Card_K-S)

That's a monster next call and yet he's a strong favorite to get euchred. Now imagine Seat 1 is a very strong player, correctly making all kinds of thin calls from the 1 seat, 2nd rd when he doesn't block much. Your hand is gonna utterly destroy his wide range. In the actual hand, it really was a genuine bad beat that Seat 1 had 4 trump and barely escaped.

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