Pick-Up Or Not

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RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Pick-Up Or Not

Post by RedDuke » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:29 pm

Interesting scenario came up today. I'm the dealer holding this:

(Card_9-C) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-H)

Upcard is (Card_J-D) .

Everybody passes and it came around to me. The score was 2-0 in our favor.

This is kind of the worst case scenario. Your partner probably isn't loaded up with trump or he would have ordered. The opponents may or may not. A lot of people (myself included) don't like to order the right up to the enemy even if we are very strong in trump. The hope here is that if the dealer picks up (as is usual when the right is the upcard) then you're in a position to set the dealer.

On the flipside, you have an absolutely worthless hand if you do not pick up here. If you do pick up, you do have three trump, although it's questionable whether anything but the right will take a trick. You are also three-suited no matter how you play it so you'd pretty much have to get lucky and have first seat lead to your void in order to get two tricks out of it (if the opponents are strong in trump).

I ultimately chose to pick up here, figuring that it's the least bad option. What actually happened is that first seat set me up. He was holding the left, ace, king (he also had the ace of hearts, so had a perfect next call). His partner had the queen. My partner in second seat was totally void in trump. He did have an ace or two but they wound up being useless against the first seat trump strength. I wound up only managing to get the one trick out of the right.

How would you have played this hand? Would you have made the same call that I did?



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:52 am

Gotta order this up. If you only had Right + 1, it's a must order too given your other nothing cards. In this case you have Right + 2 so your prospects are even better albeit still on the marginal end of the spectrum. In either case passing is out of the question when you block nothing if you pass. Right + 1 or Right + 2 scores a point too often to put your team in peril by passing with a hand that blocks nothing. Can't do that to your team.
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:34 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:29 pm
Interesting scenario came up today. I'm the dealer holding this:

(Card_9-C) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-H)

Upcard is (Card_J-D) .

Everybody passes and it came around to me. The score was 2-0 in our favor.
We can also use a compelling EV argument using a ridiculous but conservative assumption to drive home the fact that this is a must call:

Assume if you order up you get euchred 50% of time (that's the ridiculous assumption), you score a point 45% of the time and you get 2 points 5% of the time.

Ok using that probability chart: http://members.tripod.com/~Borf_Books/euchprob.htm

And assume that passing costs us 1 point on average (a conservative assumption becuz it will probably cost your team more than 1 point given how terrible your hand is once you pass).

Ok so if we pass our equity becomes 56%. That's our win% up 2-1 on our opponent's deal.

If we call our equity is: (.50 x .49) + (.45 x .66) + (.05 x .75) = 57.95%

Since there's no way we are getting euchred 50% of the time, and even if we were, calling is still better than passing (57.95% > 56%), this simple EV model clearly demonstrates that calling is better than passing.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:35 am

RedDuke wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:29 pm
Interesting scenario came up today. I'm the dealer holding this:

(Card_9-C) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-H)

Upcard is (Card_J-D) .

Everybody passes and it came around to me. The score was 2-0 in our favor.

This is kind of the worst case scenario. Your partner probably isn't loaded up with trump or he would have ordered. The opponents may or may not. A lot of people (myself included) don't like to order the right up to the enemy even if we are very strong in trump. The hope here is that if the dealer picks up (as is usual when the right is the upcard) then you're in a position to set the dealer.

On the flipside, you have an absolutely worthless hand if you do not pick up here. If you do pick up, you do have three trump, although it's questionable whether anything but the right will take a trick. You are also three-suited no matter how you play it so you'd pretty much have to get lucky and have first seat lead to your void in order to get two tricks out of it (if the opponents are strong in trump).

I ultimately chose to pick up here, figuring that it's the least bad option. What actually happened is that first seat set me up. He was holding the left, ace, king (he also had the ace of hearts, so had a perfect next call). His partner had the queen. My partner in second seat was totally void in trump. He did have an ace or two but they wound up being useless against the first seat trump strength. I wound up only managing to get the one trick out of the right.

How would you have played this hand? Would you have made the same call that I did?
Great hand to review but not because the hand is difficult to call. I agree with Wes that this hand is a must call. In fact it's not even an edge hand. Edge is R+1. This is R+2, 2 clicks from the edge. I define the edge as a 65% chance to make a point (break even, see EV below). So this hand has at least a 75% chance of winning. That leaves a 25% chance of losing. So of course it is easy to find hands that will lead you to being euchred.

The bigger picture is are you willing to be euchred 25% of the time, or even 35% of the time, if you will win more often? Do you believe you will win more often, even if you are euchred 35% of the time.

Let's simplify Wes' EV. Assume we are euchred 35% of the time and make at least 1 point 65% of the time. EV:
-2 X 35% + 1% X 65% = -.70 + .65 = -.05, basically break even
And of course you will get 2 points occasionally, @5%, +.05
Plus you will block a successful Loner, @4%, +.16
A 1/3, 2/3 would give a precise 0.00, break even result.

The question is, are you willing to suffer the bad emotions of ordering and getting euchred as much as 35% of the time? A 2nd question is, how do you guard your attitude when you are euchred?

jblowery
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Post by jblowery » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:55 am

I always pick up with rt+1 unless I have no aces and also have all loners blocked.

RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:10 am

jblowery wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:55 am
I always pick up with rt+1 unless I have no aces and also have all loners blocked.
You have both no aces here and no loners back.

As I said, I followed the same rule and got euchred. Was just wondering if you all would have played the same way I did and it sounds like yes.

Tbolt65
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:40 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:29 pm
Interesting scenario came up today. I'm the dealer holding this:

(Card_9-C) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-H)

Upcard is (Card_J-D) .

Everybody passes and it came around to me. The score was 2-0 in our favor.

This is kind of the worst case scenario. Your partner probably isn't loaded up with trump or he would have ordered. The opponents may or may not. A lot of people (myself included) don't like to order the right up to the enemy even if we are very strong in trump. The hope here is that if the dealer picks up (as is usual when the right is the upcard) then you're in a position to set the dealer.

On the flipside, you have an absolutely worthless hand if you do not pick up here. If you do pick up, you do have three trump, although it's questionable whether anything but the right will take a trick. You are also three-suited no matter how you play it so you'd pretty much have to get lucky and have first seat lead to your void in order to get two tricks out of it (if the opponents are strong in trump).

I ultimately chose to pick up here, figuring that it's the least bad option. What actually happened is that first seat set me up. He was holding the left, ace, king (he also had the ace of hearts, so had a perfect next call). His partner had the queen. My partner in second seat was totally void in trump. He did have an ace or two but they wound up being useless against the first seat trump strength. I wound up only managing to get the one trick out of the right.

How would you have played this hand? Would you have made the same call that I did?
Yes, I would have picked it up too.
Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:43 am

jblowery wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:55 am
I always pick up with rt+1 unless I have no aces and also have all loners blocked.
I would also add that I think it is often fine to pass with Right + 1 and an off ace AS LONG AS we have a euchre hand after we pass. For example, say the score is 0-0 and we have this hand:

(Card_J-C) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_J-H) (Card_K-D)

Upcard is (Card_10-C)

I think passing is the correct play with that hand.

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