How to Play Rt+1

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jblowery
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

How to Play Rt+1

Post by jblowery » Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:58 pm

This is a common situation. I'm the dealer and I pick up and only end up w/ Rt+1. I have a void (or 2) so I end up trumping the first trick with my low trump. Now what do I lead with? I could lead w/ the rt and we'd be up 2-0 but I've often been euchered when I did that, especially without an ace. I've had better luck leading an off card because it seems like my partner has a better chance of taking one. That is just my experience; not sure if the logic backs that up.

Seems like it would be good to lead the rt if I have an ace to back it up.

Wondering what others think.



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:34 pm

jblowery wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:58 pm
This is a common situation. I'm the dealer and I pick up and only end up w/ Rt+1. I have a void (or 2) so I end up trumping the first trick with my low trump. Now what do I lead with? I could lead w/ the rt and we'd be up 2-0 but I've often been euchered when I did that, especially without an ace. I've had better luck leading an off card because it seems like my partner has a better chance of taking one. That is just my experience; not sure if the logic backs that up.

Seems like it would be good to lead the rt if I have an ace to back it up.

Wondering what others think.
Yeah don't lead the Right in this spot. You don't know if your partner has off aces or not and the last thing you want is for your team to lose two trump on the same lead. Also, at that point in the hand your team is already up 2-0 becuz your Right is obviously good for a trick anywhere in the hand.

If you had an off ace then the correct strategy would be to lead the Right, then play your off ace and hope for the best. However with no offsuit power your best lead after taking the first trick is to lead an offsuit garbage card, preferably an offsuit singleton green card. The idea being that if your partner has the Ace in that suit it is less likely to get trumped, or if your partner is void in that suit he is less likely to get over-trumped. I've experienced with many offsuit lead variations in that spot, and based on my experience, veering towards offsuit singleton green leads works out best.

What about when it's a tie, like if your remaining cards besides the Right were:

(Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-D)

Notice mathematically it doesn't make much of a difference since there are 4 remaining clubs and 4 remaining diamonds. In this case still go with the green suit and lead the (Card_10-C) hoping to promote the King to boss status for later in the hand.

What about when your remaining cards (outside the Right) are this:

(Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C) (Card_Q-D)

Now lead the (Card_Q-D) based on the same logic above. If your partner has the Ad it is more likely to walk and if he's void in diamonds he is less likely to get over-trumped.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:22 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:34 pm
jblowery wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:58 pm
This is a common situation. I'm the dealer and I pick up and only end up w/ Rt+1. I have a void (or 2) so I end up trumping the first trick with my low trump. Now what do I lead with? I could lead w/ the rt and we'd be up 2-0 but I've often been euchered when I did that, especially without an ace. I've had better luck leading an off card because it seems like my partner has a better chance of taking one. That is just my experience; not sure if the logic backs that up.

Seems like it would be good to lead the rt if I have an ace to back it up.

Wondering what others think.
Yeah don't lead the Right in this spot. You don't know if your partner has off aces or not and the last thing you want is for your team to lose two trump on the same lead. Also, at that point in the hand your team is already up 2-0 becuz your Right is obviously good for a trick anywhere in the hand.

If you had an off ace then the correct strategy would be to lead the Right, then play your off ace and hope for the best. However with no offsuit power your best lead after taking the first trick is to lead an offsuit garbage card, preferably an offsuit singleton green card. The idea being that if your partner has the Ace in that suit it is less likely to get trumped, or if your partner is void in that suit he is less likely to get over-trumped. I've experienced with many offsuit lead variations in that spot, and based on my experience, veering towards offsuit singleton green leads works out best.

What about when it's a tie, like if your remaining cards besides the Right were:

(Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-D)

Notice mathematically it doesn't make much of a difference since there are 4 remaining clubs and 4 remaining diamonds. In this case still go with the green suit and lead the (Card_10-C) hoping to promote the King to boss status for later in the hand.

What about when your remaining cards (outside the Right) are this:

(Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C) (Card_Q-D)

Now lead the (Card_Q-D) based on the same logic above. If your partner has the Ad it is more likely to walk and if he's void in diamonds he is less likely to get over-trumped.
Edit: Just realized my last example is not possible with the Right + 1 unless you hold 6 cards. Oops.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:10 pm

Wes, and others, what is your EV (Estimated Value) or EO (Expected Odds) on this hand?

My EO is 65% chance of taking 1 or 2 points. Of course that means that I get Euchred 35% of the time or roughly 1 in 3 hands. That is based on my BPS (Bidding Point System) calling this a typical edge hand and my experience of winning 2 out of 3 hands.

My EV is based on 60% 1 point, 5% 2 points and 35% -2 points. So:
60%x1 + 5%x4 - 35%x2 = .6+.2-.7= +.1

Who agrees or not, that you come out very slightly ahead by calling?
BTW, lets ignore the possibility of running into a Next Loner, at least at first.
As a model, let's analyze this hand:
(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-D)

jblowery
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Post by jblowery » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:11 pm

65% is good enough though because if you pass then the opponents have the advantage. I wonder what the true % you need to be good enough. I know it is <66.7% but probably not much less than that.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:29 am

jblowery wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:11 pm
65% is good enough though because if you pass then the opponents have the advantage. I wonder what the true % you need to be good enough. I know it is <66.7% but probably not much less than that.
You are absolutely correct. Don't get overwhelmed by the math.
If you just look at 1 point for a win and -2 for an euchre, EV:
66.7% x 1 + 33.3% x -2 = 0.667 - 0.667 = 0.00, Break even

I adjusted the winning percentage to 65%, Estimated earning 2 points 5% of the 65% (I average 15%, used a 1 in 3 chance of hitting Partner and estimated 5%). The EV:
60%x1 + 5%x4 - 35%x2 = .6+.2-.7= +.1
If I pass the best that I can do is 0. Worse, I'm at high risk of a 4 point Loner.
Since 0.1 is better than 0, I don't need any additional analysis. I will order up on this hand. Of course there are exceptions. Scores of 9-8 or 8-8, as Wes detailed in a recent post, are important exceptions.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:20 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:10 pm
Wes, and others, what is your EV (Estimated Value) or EO (Expected Odds) on this hand?

My EO is 65% chance of taking 1 or 2 points. Of course that means that I get Euchred 35% of the time or roughly 1 in 3 hands. That is based on my BPS (Bidding Point System) calling this a typical edge hand and my experience of winning 2 out of 3 hands.

My EV is based on 60% 1 point, 5% 2 points and 35% -2 points. So:
60%x1 + 5%x4 - 35%x2 = .6+.2-.7= +.1

Who agrees or not, that you come out very slightly ahead by calling?
BTW, lets ignore the possibility of running into a Next Loner, at least at first.
As a model, let's analyze this hand:
(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-D)
In order to do a proper EV analysis in euchre you have to factor in the cost of passing which will necessarily involve some assumptions to get off the ground. Remember in euchre the EV of passing does not = zero. It's not analogous to poker where the EV of folding DOES = zero. This is why tight players in poker can make money whereas tight players in euchre get destroyed.

So the key assumption I go with, and it's just a "shoot from the hip" guess is that the cost of passing in euchre = approximately -1 points. That's assumption #1. Given this specific hand, that's probably a conservative assumption, since passing a hand with no aces that blocks only 1 out of the 3 remaining 2nd round suits may cost our team even more than 1 point on average.

Ok next after that we have to invoke that probability chart, and that's also our assumption #2, we assume the probability chart is legit:

http://members.tripod.com/~Borf_Books/euchprob.htm

Ok, let's say the score is 0-0. If the cost of passing = -1, than that means on average passing will put our team down 0-1 with our opponents having the deal, which according to the probability chart gives us 43% equity.

Now let's move on to calling. I will simply use your assumptions (numbers):

60% of the time we will be ahead 1-0 on our opponent's deal with 55% equity.

5% of the time we will be ahead 2-0 on our opponent's deal with 62% equity.

35% of the time we will be down 0-2 on our opponent's deal with 36% equity.

Ok here's the equation on the equity of calling:

(.6 x .55) + (.05 x .62) + (.35 x .36) = 48.7% equity

The equity of passing = 43%.

48.7% > 43%

Therefore calling is better than passing.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:45 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:29 am
Scores of 9-8 or 8-8, as Wes detailed in a recent post, are important exceptions.
To be clear I'm still calling with the hand in question even up 9-8 or tied 8-8.
To see why, let's again compare the EV of calling vs passing using your numbers and that probability chart and my assumption that passing will cost us on average 1 point.

Passing up 9-8 puts us on avg tied 9-9 on their deal which equates to 35% equity.

Equity of calling up 9-8:

(.6 x 1) + (.05 x 1) + (.35 x 0) = 65% equity.

65% > 35%

Therefore calling is better than passing.

Let's do 8-8 now. Our equity after we pass = 28%

Our equity after we call:

(.6 x .64) + (.05 x 1) + (.35 x 0) = 43.4%

43.4% > 28%

Therefore calling is better than passing.

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