POLL WOULD YOU DONATE ON THIS HAND?

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irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

POLL WOULD YOU DONATE ON THIS HAND?

Post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:52 am

You are in 1st seat, the score is 3 to 3 and the JD is the upcard.
You hold the 9d, Ks 9s Qc 9c.

Are you going to donate on this hand?

Irishwolf



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:58 am

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:52 am
You are in 1st seat, the score is 3 to 3 and the JD is the upcard.
You hold the 9d, Ks 9s Qc 9c.

Are you going to donate on this hand?

Irishwolf
With no reads I absolutely would without a second thought. Now if the dealer is a terrible player that passes a lot of biddable hands and just calls with a lot of loner combos, then I'd take the chance and pass at 3-3.

I'm not saying it's correct cuz I can't prove anything, but I'm auto-donating with that hand at 6-6 also. 1 low trump, no aces vs a Jack is a really bad situation. Plus--not that it's gonna matter much--you have no 2nd round hand either which marginally adds to the value of donating in the first round becuz if a miracle happens and the dealer passes you're still stuck in a super dangerous situation of either having to pass with nothing or basically donate in the 2nd rd.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:28 am

Suppose the dealer, you did not know, he/she is above average or even a good player. Now suppose you played 100 hands just like this one and you donated every time. That is 200 points giving away by donating. Not consider not donating:
To what degree or percentage do you think the dealer will make four points?
How many times would he only make one point?
How many times the dealer would turn it down (only the JD and some turn it down with a small trump, no ace or to bag on next, etc. etc.)?
Then other scenarios (although minor but have to be considered in the equation) of 2nd seat ordering or going alone or your partner ordering?

Tis the question, will you ever exceed or breakeven with 200 points to just leave it alone and not donate?

Wes said, "With no reads I absolutely would without a second thought."

Irishwolf

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:26 pm

Yes, not a good situation to be in! For sure, if you donate to put the opponent up 8 to 6, you will lose 70 - 80% of those games. I would never donate to put the opponents up 8 to 6 (or 9 to 7) late in the game.

WES SAID, "I'm auto-donating with that hand at 6-6 also..."

Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:43 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:26 pm
Yes, not a good situation to be in! For sure, if you donate to put the opponent up 8 to 6, you will lose 70 - 80% of those games. I would never donate to put the opponents up 8 to 6 (or 9 to 7) late in the game.

WES SAID, "I'm auto-donating with that hand at 6-6 also..."

Irishwolf
Donwn 8-6 with the deal we have approx 30% equity based on that probability chart I have linked to (http://members.tripod.com/~Borf_Books/euchprob.htm). Since sometimes we will get lucky on our donates and score a point, our actual equity if we donate is a little bit more than 30%. Maybe it's 33%, idk. Whatever it actually is, the implicit claim I am making in this spot is that if we pass this particular hand vs a Jack upard at 6-6 our team will have less equity. It's a very weak claim tho becuz I have no way of proving it without that mythical euchre simulator. I would love to falsify this claim. It would make my week, but we need hard data and we don't have the tools to get that right now. So all I can really tell people is what I would do in these spots.

Where did I come up with these "controversial donates" to begin with? Well they've been working hypotheses for me for probably around 20k games now, and my results have been too good to change. That doesn't come close to proving that my overall donation strategy is 100% correct. I would bet serious money that it's not. Always gotta be humble when one is shooting from the hip without hard data.

irishwolf
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:41 pm

I have never observed the word "equity" used in relationship to Euchre. Are you using it in place of 'probability'? And by the way Sword (Freddie) also said about donating, you would probably be better off, not donating.

20,000 games, that is a lot. If you played 7 games a week that is 54 years. I have observed some players on the old Yahoo Euchre site who played 47,000. And she was not worth a dime playing euchre, only had a 51% win rate. Practice does not make Perfect. Practicing makes "Permanent", hard wired, and can't be modified if you practice day after day doing the wrong thing. I see it all the time on Nidink and other sites. Such errors as: Not leading trump when they should, leading aces before trump, not calling on biddable hands, not trusting tricks, not playing as a partner, excessive leads of trump, on and on. Not say that is you or anyone in particular! Just a comment that playing many games does not mean someone is good!

If you or anyone, want to test your "skill" enter in the upcoming Chatamer's tourney on the 19th and 20th, in Flint, MI, where the real players come from Canada, Oh, Mi, Il and various states. We see just how good you are. I'll be there!

WES said, "Where did I come up with these "controversial donates" to begin with? Well they've been working hypotheses for me for probably around 20k games now, and my results have been too good to change."

Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:06 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:41 pm
I have never observed the word "equity" used in relationship to Euchre. Are you using it in place of 'probability'? And by the way Sword (Freddie) also said about donating, you would probably be better off, not donating.
Don't really care what anyone says. I need hard data.

Edit: Equity = percentage chance of winning the game. E.G. If I donate at 6-6, my team's probability of winning the game is a little bit more than 30%. IOW my team's equity is a little bit more than 30%.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:41 pm
20,000 games, that is a lot. If you played 7 games a week that is 54 years.

I've played more games than that in less than 2 years which is something I'm not proud of.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:41 pm
I have observed some players on the old Yahoo Euchre site who played 47,000. And she was not worth a dime playing euchre, only had a 51% win rate. Practice does not make Perfect. Practicing makes "Permanent", hard wired, and can't be modified if you practice day after day doing the wrong thing. I see it all the time on Nidink and other sites. Such errors as: Not leading trump when they should, leading aces before trump, not calling on biddable hands, not trusting tricks, not playing as a partner, excessive leads of trump, on and on. Not say that is you or anyone in particular! Just a comment that playing many games does not mean someone is good!
Of course. I would conservatively say 99% who play euchre are not very good at playing euchre. And there's nothing wrong with that obviously. Most people have major time constraints and they correctly and quite rationally don't prioritize mastering a card game you can't even make any real money at. They play euchre for the fun of it. They are not obsessed with it like many on this site, including myself.
irishwolf wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:41 pm
If you or anyone, want to test your "skill" enter in the upcoming Chatamer's tourney on the 19th and 20th, in Flint, MI, where the real players come from Canada, Oh, Mi, Il and various states. We see just how good you are. I'll be there!
If I still lived in Michigan I'd be there for sure, but I live in the desert now and I don't like traveling very much. If you're ever in Vegas you better show up to our Thursday tournament!

Tbolt65
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:33 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:52 am
You are in 1st seat, the score is 3 to 3 and the JD is the upcard.
You hold the 9d, Ks 9s Qc 9c.

Are you going to donate on this hand?

Irishwolf
Personally in most cases. No. At worst it's 7-3 opponents. Still lots of game to be played.


Tbolt65
Edward

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