Borderline Alone?

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Borderline Alone? What would you do?

Order Up
5
63%
Go Alone
2
25%
Pass
1
13%
 
Total votes: 8

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Borderline Alone?

Post by Richardb02 » Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:23 am

(Card_A-D) Up Score 4-2 You are in Seat 2 Round 1 Equal & average players
(Card_10-D) (Card_J-D) (Card_A-S) (Card_9-H) (Card_Q-H)
Would you go Alone?



RedDuke
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:16 pm

In the scenario you state, I'd probably pass. This hand is not strong enough to risk the loner when your team is already up 4-2.

The decision to pass will probably be more controversial, but here's my logic.

If your partner picks up here, you have a pretty good helper hand. You have a guaranteed trick with the right, a reasonably decent chance of a trick with the ace of spades, and a partner who probably has at least two trump.

If your partner passes, then you've got a really strong hand against a next call from first seat. If first seat passes, you've got a strong enough hand to go against Hoyle and call hearts yourself. The problem is that you've got nothing in the black suits so you can't do much if first seat crosses the river but that doesn't happen all that much.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:31 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:23 am
(Card_A-D) Up Score 4-2 You are in Seat 2 Round 1 Equal & average players
(Card_10-D) (Card_J-D) (Card_A-S) (Card_9-H) (Card_Q-H)
Would you go Alone?
Calling this hand a borderline loner is giving it WAY too much credit. This isn't a loner at all. That said, down 9-6/9-7 I'll give it Hail Mary status and go alone with it in this spot.

Hail Mary criteria = Assume you opponents have no more than 1 trump each, assume you survive the opening lead, and assume that the top card of your outside suited portion always clears out the rest promoting your bottom card to boss status. After all that, if you only need 2 cards buried for your loner to work, then go for it. In this hand we only need the (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) to be buried to have a shot, so it qualifies, barely. But again, this is a standard calling hand for the most part.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 279
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:34 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:16 pm
The decision to pass will probably be more controversial, but here's my logic.

If your partner picks up here, you have a pretty good helper hand. You have a guaranteed trick with the right, a reasonably decent chance of a trick with the ace of spades, and a partner who probably has at least two trump.

If your partner passes, then you've got a really strong hand against a next call from first seat. If first seat passes, you've got a strong enough hand to go against Hoyle and call hearts yourself. The problem is that you've got nothing in the black suits so you can't do much if first seat crosses the river but that doesn't happen all that much.
Passing with this strong of a hand when you only block 1 out of the remaining 3 suits in the 2nd round is borderline suicidal. Don't do that. Also, not sure how you're reaching the conclusion that 1st seat wont cross the river very often. Given your holding, black will be first seat's most likely call. Remember, in euchre there are not that many cards buried compared to cards in play. This means if you don't have it someone else likely does.

Richardb02
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:16 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:34 pm
RedDuke wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:16 pm
The decision to pass will probably be more controversial, but here's my logic.

If your partner picks up here, you have a pretty good helper hand. You have a guaranteed trick with the right, a reasonably decent chance of a trick with the ace of spades, and a partner who probably has at least two trump.

If your partner passes, then you've got a really strong hand against a next call from first seat. If first seat passes, you've got a strong enough hand to go against Hoyle and call hearts yourself. The problem is that you've got nothing in the black suits so you can't do much if first seat crosses the river but that doesn't happen all that much.
Passing with this strong of a hand when you only block 1 out of the remaining 3 suits in the 2nd round is borderline suicidal. Don't do that. Also, not sure how you're reaching the conclusion that 1st seat wont cross the river very often. Given your holding, black will be first seat's most likely call. Remember, in euchre there are not that many cards buried compared to cards in play. This means if you don't have it someone else likely does.
I definitely agree with Wes that passing is suicidal. The generality is that aggressive calling wins more often then passive calling. With this scenario, Partner is more likely to pass because they don't have the right. So it is more critical than average to order up.

Hoyle goes out the door in this case. Expanding on Wes' comments, you know that there are 7 of 7 reverse next, Clubs out of 18 cards available. That is 7/18th or 39% vs 7/24th or 28% chance Opponents having a Club, on average. The chances of your Opponent being strong in RN Clubs has been increased by roughly 39%, based on you only having no club. That 39% difference says that a Seat 1 call in clubs is likely.

Wes' explanation that he would only use it as a Hail Mary, down 6-9 or 7-9 nails every detail about this hand. Wes also gives me enough wiggle room to say that the hand is an edge loner in a Hail Mary situation!

I actually called this hand alone. I really liked the call, being up 4-2, to keep my Opponents guessing about my tendencies. If I get euchred, it is still a tied game. Those 2 points are enough for me to play this hand and situation alone. I would go alone at scores of 5-3, 3-1, 2-0, as well as 5-2, 5-1, 5-0, 3-0.

My description of an edge loner is that my EV is above 0. If I get euchred 30% of the time, get 1 point 65% of the time and get 4 points, 5% of the time, EV:
-2*30%+1*65%+4*5%= -.6+.65+.2=+0.15
BTW, ordering up, euchred 10%, 1 point 75%, 2 points 15%
-2*10%+1*75%+2*15%= -.2+.75+.3=0.85
Yes, obviously, my EV's make my Alone call look like a mistake!

Tbolt65
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:02 pm

I miss read the post and clicked alone. I didn't see it was from 2nd seat. For me this is an automatic order from seat two. Passing here only hurts your team. Unless you are passive then if so then go for it. But you risk giving up the hand to a black call on seat 1 for a point or possibly more.

Tbolt65
Edward

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