You call alone. What do you discard?

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You call alone. What do you discard?

Q diamonds
3
33%
9 spades
6
67%
 
Total votes: 9

Richardb02
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

You call alone. What do you discard?

Post by Richardb02 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:29 am

(Card_J-C) Up Round 1 You are Seat 4 (Dealer) 5-5 Equal & ave players
(Card_9-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-D)
You call Alone
Discard (Card_Q-D) or (Card_9-S)



RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:37 pm

You're going to want to discard the card that's least likely to take a trick. That's the nine of spades.

This is a tough call. A lot of times, one of the opponents will lead next first lead. This is general practice when its a lone call from third seat but I see it happen a lot when I go alone as the dealer too. That'll kill your lone sweep on the first lead.

With the diamond, it's a little bit trickier. Usually somebody will save an ace until the end and that's usually a reverse next ace. So hearts or diamonds. This loner will probably depend on whether somebody throws away the wrong ace on the fourth trick. With that said, at least it won't get set.

And now I'm sure that somebody will come along and tell me I'm wrong and that you should save the nine of spades. I'm just saying that when I go alone as the dealer, probably 7 times out of 10 the first card led is something from the next suit.

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marya
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Post by marya » Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:57 am

RedDuke, I'd discard the black 9 as well, for the same reasons as you.

Would love to hear the reasoning on discarding the queen. The only thing I can think of is that there are two spades in your hand, which leaves 4 spades "out there" (10, Q, K, A), whereas there are 5 diamonds "out there" (9, 10, J, K, A). So there's a slightly higher probability that an opponent is holding a diamond instead of a spade.

However! Only 2 of the available diamonds can capture your queen. All 4 of the spades that are available can capture your 9.

Also, since everyone passed, the chances are good that the dealer's left hand opponent was going to call "next" (spades), which means they may very well have some high spades.

Yeah, I dunno :) I'm an amateur.

Richardb02
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Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:28 am

Thank you RedDuke and mayra for your replies.

I agree with the general, static analysis. There are 4 cards that can stop the 9s. There are 2 cards that can stop the Qd. Obviously discarding the 9s is better.

RedDuke addresses the dynamic analysis. Your opponents are the dynamic, changing parameter. The experienced player is predisposed to play Next, especially against a Loner from Seat 3. See: https://ohioeuchre.com/E_loneDef.phpIn

In this hand, if your opponent would lead a spade and if, you had discarded the 9s, that would be to your benefit. You would trump the spade lead. Dynamic analysis gives you another reason to discard the 9s.

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:02 pm

The answer for this question like many I have answered prior on other groups is this. It depends on the situation.

In short, both are correct leads. You just have to know when to make that decision. It depends on the opponents play style mainly.

Tbolt65
Edward

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marya
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Post by marya » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:04 am

Tbolt65 - I would love to hear more... In what case would you discard the queen? - Marya

Tbolt65
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Post by Tbolt65 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:13 pm

marya wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:04 am
Tbolt65 - I would love to hear more... In what case would you discard the queen? - Marya
If you know the tendency of your opponents. Either through play of your opponents or personal knowledge of them doing so. That is leading red into a black loner try. Then I'll keep the black in hopes the discard the wrong suit later on.

I apply the same logic for those opponents that lead next.


Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:45 pm

Not much I can add here that hasn't already been said. Without reads always keep the higher card. The most common read based play here I make is getting rid of the Next suit even if it's higher.

E.G I go alone in clubs from the Dealer seat, and I have a read that Seat 1 veers mostly towards leading next in that spot. So If my decision point is between discarding a (Card_Q-S) or a (Card_9-H) , I would keep the (Card_9-H) in that situation.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:06 pm

Not a contest 9S vs QD: Four other spades will beat a 9 vs only K/A for diamonds.

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marya
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Post by marya » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:56 pm

Interesting, thanks!

icanplay
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Post by icanplay » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:57 pm

Discard the nine of spades.
I have a hard time with the style of play being considered concerning the opponents.... Reason; the best play here mostly involves the stopper cards not being available to your opponents... It is less likely your opponents have one of the two red stoppers(k or Ace), then them having one of the four spade stoppers..... Playing a hunch or gut feeling can pay-off, but if your hunch is contrary to playing the probability, playing your hunch is a very dangerous move....

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