Up 9-8

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jblowery
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Up 9-8

Post by jblowery » Fri May 24, 2019 12:39 pm

In general, how does this change your likelihood of calling? I think it would make you more conservative, especially when the other team has the deal (because you would have it next round) but I don't know how much more conservative you would be.

I thought of this question because the other day we were up 9-8, the dealer turned down hearts, and I called next from Seat 1 with the left and two other diamonds. We got euchered and I was wondering if I should have done this. Thanks.



RedDuke
Posts: 223
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Fri May 24, 2019 1:38 pm

First off, without seeing the rest of your cards, I probably would have made the same call. If the upcard was the jack of hearts, I absolutely would have.

Being up 9-8 in first seat is sometimes one of the worst positions in the game to be in because you can very easily make or break the game in this position. You almost have to be both conservative and aggressive.

First off, there's no point donating. If you have a guaranteed trick in every suit, then passing is probably best unless you're holding something pretty solid. What you want to avoid is either getting euchred or having them take five tricks. So really, if you've got something that will probably take at least one trick then you can usually get away with passing.

For example,

You're holding this:

(Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_A-S)

If the turn card is a heart, I'd probably pass first round and might even pass second. If dealer picks up, your right will stop a sweep. In addition, you've got a covered left if diamonds is trump so you've got a sweep stopped there. Your two green aces will probably give you the ability to take at least one trick between them.

With that said, I would probably not call next in that position at a score of 9-8. That's because that hand can still be euchred. If your partner is holding the Right+1, you're gold but if the opponents have most of the remaining trump, you're in trouble. I've been euchred with stronger hands than that.

With that said, I would call that hand if I'm up say 9-6. That's because at that score you need to be really worried about a second seat reverse next loner.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 217
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri May 24, 2019 4:48 pm

jblowery wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:39 pm
In general, how does this change your likelihood of calling? I think it would make you more conservative, especially when the other team has the deal (because you would have it next round) but I don't know how much more conservative you would be.

I thought of this question because the other day we were up 9-8, the dealer turned down hearts, and I called next from Seat 1 with the left and two other diamonds. We got euchered and I was wondering if I should have done this. Thanks.
If you have a hand like:

(Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-S)

I think diamonds is a must call. You have a near dead hand if seat 2 calls black. The probability of Seat 2 closing out the game with a reverse next call is high enough imo to warrant a must call with that hand.

Another marginal hand I would call with in this spot for the same reasons as above: Assume dealer turned down a (Card_10-H)

You have: (Card_J-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-H)

Again, the chances are too high that a 2 seat black call will end the game so I'm calling next with Right + 1. I don't wanna do this, but I gotta do this.

One more up 9-8 example: Dealer turns down (Card_9-H)

You have: (Card_J-D) (Card_J-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C)

Now I would pass. I have all suits blocked, and a good euchre hand (approx 2 tricks in every suit). Passing gives your team 2 chances to win, one with a euchre hand, and one as the dealer as a 2-1 favorite. If you call you only get 1 chance.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 217
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri May 24, 2019 4:54 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:38 pm
So really, if you've got something that will probably take at least one trick then you can usually get away with passing.

For example,

You're holding this:

(Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_A-S)

If the turn card is a heart, I'd probably pass first round and might even pass second.
Definitely pass in the first round and no way in hell should you pass in the 2nd. This is a super strong Next call. In fact I'm going alone with this at every score except when my team has 9 or 8 points. Never pass this strong of a hand when you don't block reverse next no matter what the score.

Richardb02
Posts: 131
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Fri May 24, 2019 6:40 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 4:54 pm
RedDuke wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 1:38 pm
So really, if you've got something that will probably take at least one trick then you can usually get away with passing.

For example,

You're holding this:

(Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_A-C) (Card_A-S)

If the turn card is a heart, I'd probably pass first round and might even pass second.
Definitely pass in the first round and no way in hell should you pass in the 2nd. This is a super strong Next call. In fact I'm going alone with this at every score except when my team has 9 or 8 points. Never pass this strong of a hand when you don't block reverse next no matter what the score.
I am 100% on board with Wes, based on applying information in my post, Business Point System - Basic.
0.25 S1 R1
0.75 L
0.75 Black A
0.75 Black A
0.00 No voids
-.50 only 1 trump
2.00 less than 2.25 to call from S1

Now instead of waiting until R2, I've learned from Wes and Reduke to evaluate my hand based on R2
0.25 S1
1.25 Reverse (S1)
1.00 R
0.25 Td
0.25 9d
0.75 Black Singleton Ac
0.75 Black Singleton As
0.50 3 Trump (even .75 since I have the R)
5.00 !. Much greater than 2.25 (about a 65% chance of success based on experience)
____ 4 almost certain tricks (1.25 points per certain tricks)
____ 5 potential tricks. BTW, 3.75 is a strong indicator to go Alone, but not necessary when you have 9.

Conclusion, 100% pass R1, 100% call Next R2.

Richardb02
Posts: 131
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Fri May 24, 2019 7:26 pm

jblowery wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 12:39 pm
In general, how does this change your likelihood of calling? I think it would make you more conservative, especially when the other team has the deal (because you would have it next round) but I don't know how much more conservative you would be.

I thought of this question because the other day we were up 9-8, the dealer turned down hearts, and I called next from Seat 1 with the left and two other diamonds. We got euchered and I was wondering if I should have done this. Thanks.
I covered this is my "Seat 1 Round 2 Up 9-8" post
Yes, you have to be conservative because Enemy has 8. Minus 1 click. In numbers -0.25
But, if you are playing to win (as you should, Euchre is a game of odds, you must take a chance, more specifically you must be prepared to lose up to 35% of the time so get used to it) you should be aggressive to win the game. Plus 1 click. In numbers, +0.25
At 9-8 the 2 conflicting guidelines negate each other.

You got euchred. That is the chance that you take. If you had the theoretical, Euchre simulator, you would test 400 hands and as long as you won 65% of the time you should call. (We don't have that tool. That is what makes Euchre so much fun)

Wes and Reduke rightly asked for more specific details about the car turned down as well as your other 2 trumps and your other 2 cards.

Let's use Wes' "weak hand" scenario:
(Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-S)
Lets (for now) ignore Wes' advanced analysis of blocking and just use BPS-Basic:
0.25 S1
1.25 S1 R2 Next
0.75 L
0.25 Td
0.25 9d
0.25 1 Void
0.50 3 trump (weakest evaluation but 0.75 is the BPS recommendation for 3 Trump & 1 or 2 Bowers)
3.50 points. Much greater than 2.25 for a minimum call (65% probability). My Ev is 90-95%!
____ I don't need any additional analysis. I will take 90-95% probability, any time, almost any situation.
____ Another way to look at it, 3.50 points means I have > 90% chance of taking 3 tricks. And that is before I count on Partner having 1 trick! That kicks our team up to a 95% chance.
____ Sure you still have a 5-10% probability of being Euchred but you play to win not to avoid being euchred. That is the psychological side of playing. You must be prepared to lose occasionally to maximize the percentage of time that you win. A 90% chance of winning 1 (or more tricks) vs. a 20 or even 30% chance of being euchred translates into an Ev (Estimated Value) of (.90*1= 0.90 ) vs (0.30 {worst case} chance of being euchred). You come out ahead 0.60 points! Logically you should call, cased on that analysis. The only thing holding you back is the fear of losing! Avoiding fear, separates the better players from the average players IMO.

Conclusions: Call the hand giving you a greater opportunity to win. Learn to handle the emotions that say, "I see a path to being euchred." Don't use any additional analysis when the advantage is clear. Call.

Becoming a Wes or RedDuke is like eating an elephant. You have to do it 1 bite at a time. Taking 2 bites at a time, or too big of a bite will make you choke! You will choke, fail to call, when it is to your advantage when you have an excellent chance of winning. Wes and RedDuke ignore my psychological reasoning. They are 5-10,000 hands per year ahead of my mediocre performance! They are fearless. Wes is even more fearless than RedDuke.

I immensely appreciate that they share their experience and knowledge with us. But even after following their guidance for almost a year, I only understand half of their analysis. They give me a chunk of elephant. I take my own guidance. I only take a single bite from their wisdom. Improvement is my goal. With that limited goal I get to enjoy Euchre, where I am right now.

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