





You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9
Unread post by Richardb02 » Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri May 17, 2019 10:58 pm
Easy call from Seat 2. You have two guaranteed tricks, your team has at least 4 out of the 7 trump and your partner gets to create a void. This is a good situation, not a marginal one. If seat 1 leads a garbage spade make sure to throw off giving your partner a chance to take that trick and effectively end the game on the first lead.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pmUp
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You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9
Unread post by RedDuke » Sun May 19, 2019 4:58 pm
Agreed. Up 9-8, passing with this hand should be a capital felony.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 10:58 pmEasy call from Seat 2. You have two guaranteed tricks, your team has at least 4 out of the 7 trump and your partner gets to create a void. This is a good situation, not a marginal one. If seat 1 leads a garbage spade make sure to throw off giving your partner a chance to take that trick and effectively end the game on the first lead.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pmUp
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You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9
Also, passing here is not "playing it safe" anyways. If you pass and your partner passes, seat 1 can now close out the game with a red call. Playing it safe is making this very good call in the first round.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon May 20, 2019 8:53 pm
Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue May 21, 2019 6:33 am
Thanks Wes and RedDuke. I reached the same conclusion. I just had that moment of indecision. So I wanted to see if others shared that indecision. I reached my conclusion based on BPS - Basic. The example is a typical, basic play. I just had to double check before calling.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pmUp
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You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9
Unread post by RedDuke » Tue May 21, 2019 8:43 am
I'm still calling in that situation. You have a good chance of being able to take three tricks with what's in your hand unless your partner has total garbage. The worst scenario is going to be if the dealer has the right and a couple of aces.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Mon May 20, 2019 8:53 pmThere's suuuuuuuch an easy way to make this hand interesting. Change the scenario to Seat 1 Round 1. Now what guys.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pm
I agree it's a call. Certainly not a call I love tho.
Unread post by RedDuke » Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm
Wow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pmI agree it's a call. Certainly not a call I love tho.
Ok what about this hand I had yesterday, from Seat 1, 1st rd, up 9-8:
Dealer upcard:![]()
I had![]()
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What do you do?
Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm
0.25 S1 R1RedDuke wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pmWow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pm
Ok what about this hand I had yesterday, from Seat 1, 1st rd, up 9-8:
Dealer upcard:![]()
I had![]()
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What do you do?
I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed May 22, 2019 2:45 am
RedDuke wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pmWow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.
I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.
I passed hoping the dealer would pick up. Up 9-8 I just didn't wanna call this marginal and risk getting euchred. Yeah I have a nothing hand in the 2nd round and have to pass but it isn't like a guarantee that my opponents are gonna get 2 points on a call, altho granted the chances are much higher than typical given how bad my hand is, but at least it's still possible I could help. I do have a very dirty boss Kh that might take a trick on the last lead or something. IDK, becuz there's still a decent chance that I can end up with the deal at 9-9 as a 2-1 favorite I decided I couldn't call this marginal.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm
0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.
If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
Unread post by RedDuke » Wed May 22, 2019 8:41 am
That's exactly why I feel the need to call. Because you have nowhere to go second round and there's a very good chance that they'll make the reverse next sweep if you do nothing.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 2:45 amRedDuke wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pmWow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.
I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.I passed hoping the dealer would pick up. Up 9-8 I just didn't wanna call this marginal and risk getting euchred. Yeah I have a nothing hand in the 2nd round and have to pass but it isn't like a guarantee that my opponents are gonna get 2 points on a call, altho granted the chances are much higher than typical given how bad my hand is, but at least it's still possible I could help. I do have a very dirty boss Kh that might take a trick on the last lead or something. IDK, becuz there's still a decent chance that I can end up with the deal at 9-9 as a 2-1 favorite I decided I couldn't call this marginal.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm
0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.
If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
Results: I passed and the dealer turned it down. I passed in the 2nd round, and the 2 seat called black and closed out the game with 2 points. Sigh.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu May 23, 2019 2:06 pm
Having 3 trump + no where to go in the 2nd around almost always = call, at least in my opinion. Up 9-8 is a whole different animal imo. This is why I hate 9-8 scenarios. So much of the nuance of the game is gone. It's basically either you have it or you don't, and now you're forced to just play your cards like everyone else.
Some more percentages we need for the model:
Can't call in the 2nd round. That would be extremely reckless up 9-8. Gotta pass and pray in that spot. If the score were 0-0 and I incorrectly passed on 3 trump the 1st round, then I would call diamonds in the 2nd rd as a pure donation, certainly a controversial play that the majority of euchre players disagree with, but that's what I would do. But we can't do that at 9-8. Now a euchre costs us the game, and stopping a loner doesn't apply at that score.RedDuke wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2019 8:41 amNo matter what you call second round, you're looking at your opponents having a decent shot at 2 points either by euchring your call or by a reverse next sweep.
If I passed and the dealer didn't pick up, I might call diamonds second round despite having nothing hoping to god that my partner can salvage the call. Really though, he'd have to have a red jack or two to pull that off and his hand would be just as good with hearts as trump.
Unread post by Richardb02 » Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 pm
Wes, let's see if I covered everything.:Richardb02 wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm0.25 S1 R1RedDuke wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pmWow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pm
Ok what about this hand I had yesterday, from Seat 1, 1st rd, up 9-8:
Dealer upcard:![]()
I had![]()
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What do you do?
I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.
If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat May 25, 2019 3:45 am
Richardb02 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 pm0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.
If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
Ok let's see what I get based on my guesses.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 pm, let's see if I covered everything.:
Calling 50% chance of winning, 10% being euchred, 40% enemy gets 1
Passing: I used a 10% chance of the enemy calling and getting 2 points, in my post.
15.3% is my average. I reduced the probability by 1/3 for calling. I should have increased it by 1/3 to 20% for passing, since my hand is weak for defending.
That changes my last conclusion to: So 50% chance of winning by calling and 52% (65*80%) to 56% (70*80%), if I pass. So still a hair better to pass. Reality? Too close to call.
Unread post by Richardb02 » Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pm
Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue May 28, 2019 5:17 pm
I think you meant 'favors passing by 5.5%'. Also as much as I hate point systems--and I do--I would favor your point system guess over my "wild ass guess". And if we avg our two WAGs to 45%, passing still edges out calling.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pmI could justify my BPS, and I am confident in my 50% probability, but let me point out that if you use 50%, your EV model favors calling by 5.5%.
Again, I think you meant "your EV is now 9.25 in favor of passing". To be honest, I actually feel like Seat 2 is getting 2 points significantly more often than 25% given how bad our hand is, but I do not take much stock into "feels".Richardb02 wrote: ↑Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pm__B. The 2nd biggest factor, isn't even that big under closer examination. You give Enemy a 25% chance of getting 2 points, I give Enemy a 20% chance. That nets out to -0.0375. If you use my 20% SWAG, your EV is now 9.25 in favor of calling.
Richardb02 wrote: ↑Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pmYes Wes, I am supporting your experience and instincts saying pass. My observation is that your average percentages reflect that you "Donate" much more than I donate. This is definitely not an appropriate situation for donating. So my percentages more accurately reflect the probabilities, in this 9-8, S1 situation.
I will make my simpler EV Model more in line with your recommendation to pass. I'll agree to your 65% probability that the Dealer earns at least 1 point. Let's add your 3% probability that Enemy gets euchred, if they call R1. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 61% (68*90%), if I pass. 11.0 in favor of passing.
So I now suggest that there is a small but definite advantage to passing in this situation. Please note that before this discussion Wes and I had agreed that it was too close to call.
A poll would be pretty cool.Richardb02 wrote: ↑Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pmEveryone, please post Call or Pass, o explanation needed.
Admin can we make this a poll?
There were 84 views at this point Let's see if we can get to 200.
Unread post by Dlan » Tue May 28, 2019 7:42 pm
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