RedDuke wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:52 pm
We all know that ordering the dealer up from third seat is a dangerous proposition. As such, you need to have a very strong hand to even try. I'm curious though what you all think is needed to order up.
This came up in a game I was playing earlier today. I'm in third seat holding this:
Upcard is the

.
Please bear with me. My approach to analyzing a hand for bidding, usually gets dismissed out of hand, before it is considered.
0.0 is the value for your Seat 3 position
0.5 is the value for your

, A of trump
0.5 is the value for your

, K of trump
0.25 is the value for your

, 10 of trump
0.25 is the value for your

, 9 of trump
0.75 is the value of 3 voids (0.25 per void + 0.25 bonus for 2 voids)
0.50 is the value of any 3 trumps
0.25 is the value of the 4th trump
3.00 is the value of your hand
2.75 has been my tested point of bidding, so I would bid
In my approach, the Right has a value of 1.0, a definite trick
Every other value is a "guesstimate" of its relative value
You still need to analyze the hand.
You don't stop thinking and trust the system.
I can see that 2 Bowers and Ac can euchre my hand, especially from Seat 3.
I also see me getting the lead, drawing trump and taking 3 tricks by myself.
It is a tough decision. You and my system are in agreement.
Let's analyze the system.
Euchre is a game of chance. So 2.0 points means that you have a strong enough hand to take 2 tricks, but it is not guaranteed. 2.5 points gives you a cushion, to comfortably take 2 tricks. You count on your partner for the 3rd trick. So you would bid, in general. You then adjust based on other factors. At my competition level (weak to average) , I found that 2.5 points was unsatisfactory (getting euchred more than 20% of the time, probably too often for my competition level). So 2.75% is my current level to bid (if other considerations are not worthwhile, which is the case in my world). RedDuke is confident that his partner is aggressive (and skilled) and would have bid under the circumstances. I suggest that adding 0.25 to the "normal" 2.5 points to bid, still compensates for his reasonable assumption. So bidding, for Reduke, would also make sense taking his partner into consideration. Looking deeper, into the possibilities, an Alone is not a consideration until I have 3.75 points in my hand. 3.75 points gives me a comfortable chance of taking 3 tricks. So going alone is not a reasonable play for this hand. I could continue to analyze (especially after Wes' Advanced Quiz) but nothing stands out as worthy of consideration.
So, summing up this long post, call/bid, you have a decent 1 point hand. You also have nothing but conjecture to gain by passing. If you are in doubt, then add this factor, bidding is preferable to sand bagging (with exceptions). So I recommend bidding with this hand and situation.