Advanced Euchre QUIZ - PART 2

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irishwolf
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Advanced Euchre QUIZ - PART 2

Post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm

Response to Answers on The QUIZ:

Realize this is not grade school where there is ONE right answer. The correct answer is - where you achieve your objective according to what occur from your partners the Majority of the time (statistically). And that is severely lacking for each or at least most of the answers. And I probably agreed with Wes (at least in part) than most who did the Quiz. As my answers are, it is one person's opinion even though may be a highly skilled person. Various answers based on opponents. Euchre is a statistical game and what players do is more variable than the cards themselves. So how you play each hand also has to change accordingly. Realize these answers by WES are by an aggressive player. Knowing that, he is vulnerable to BAGGING. Set back and wait for some aggressive calls.

For example #19: His answer is statistically incorrect for many hands played - # 19. WHY- leading a bower first is not the Best way to get a euchre. Eldest has two bowers and MUST have a trick from your partner. Leading a bower will strip your partner of his one trump but more importantly - it will shut down any further trump lead from the dealer. You have to first try to hit your partner for an ace or to trump your lead. If the dealer trumps, he/she will now lead trump and you get both hits by your bowers AND another off suit lead to your partner for a possible Ace. In addition, your partner can sort his hand to save an off suit doubleton to catch the dealer's off suit.
This set up occurs a often - I have studied it in detail and confident in my statements above.

#9 - score is 9 to 6 - better to go for two points and IT 'S YOUR DEAL NEXT. The answer almost assumes the opponents are UNAWARE of what a loner in next would do. I would agree only if opponents were weak but that is not what was given to ASSUME for answering the questions.

#24. The answer is another one. 9D is the upcard - score is 0 to 0. One is you are playing as if you alone and not considering your partner has five cards. What do you think are the odds of the dealer having a loner, or his partner with a 9 up? VERY LOW - statistically conceding one point - 10% advantage to the opponent many hands played is the answer. And if assuming you believe Natty, he would never donate at 0 t0 0. If the Jack were up then statistically it goes up (to 1 in 6 hands). Is that good enough to donate as well.

#25 - score is 0 - 3. Going alone - if opponents lead to your void - clubs you have to use your ace and lead the left. Opponent will have the right 56% of the time. Another lead of clubs you have no answer. And one of those opponents will have another trump for a euchre. Eldest leading from 3 of an off suit to one of those aces, Pone has a good chance to trump. A euchre now yo0u are down 5 to 0. You will lose most games that way. Assist and go for 2 pts - now only down by 1.

Off hand I take serious issue with 9., 19., 23., 24., 25., 28. There are others but quick review these stand out.

Oh there is much more but enough for now.

Irishwolf



irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:24 pm

Question 1 - said not to go alone? However it depends on your two opponents. It said nothing about where in games you were or if either of the two opponents may be top competitors. If top competitors it is just as important to keep both at ZERO.

NO guarantee you will end up with 11, 12, or 13.

RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:59 pm

16) The score is 6-6. You're in the 3rd seat. The dealer upcard is the (Card_A-S)

You hold (Card_J-C), (Card_K-S), (Card_Q-S), (Card_A-D), (Card_J-H)

ANSWER: Pass. Too many good things can happen if you pass here. 1) If the dealer picks up you have a great chance to set him (all he needs is the Right bower to justify an order). And 2) If the dealer passes you hit your partner no what he calls, and those times your partner goes alone you'll also be glad you passed. And the worse case scenario, the dealer and your partner both passing isn't that bad as you have all suits blocked. Ordering this hand up in the first round from the 3rd spot and getting set would be a small tragedy since it was a risk you didn't need to take given the upside to passing--a real risk to always respect since 3rd seat orders are the toughest ones to make.
This one could even be a great pass second round if you're playing stick-the-dealer. No matter what the dealer calls, you've got a decent chance to euchre him.

You've got a guaranteed trick in any suit. You probably have at least two and likely three no matter what trump is. Figure:

1. If dealer passes, Ace-Spades is now out of play. Your King is now boss in spades and will probably take a trick.
2. If dealer calls clubs, you have the right.
3. If dealer calls hearts (reverse next), you have the right. If he calls diamonds, you have a guarded left. Either one is good for a trick.
4. The Ace of Diamonds will probably take a trick.

Thus, you've probably got two or three tricks here no matter what any other player does. That's a hand that you're always going to want to pass.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:50 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:59 pm
16) The score is 6-6. You're in the 3rd seat. The dealer upcard is the (Card_A-S)

You hold (Card_J-C), (Card_K-S), (Card_Q-S), (Card_A-D), (Card_J-H)

ANSWER: Pass. Too many good things can happen if you pass here. 1) If the dealer picks up you have a great chance to set him (all he needs is the Right bower to justify an order). And 2) If the dealer passes you hit your partner no what he calls, and those times your partner goes alone you'll also be glad you passed. And the worse case scenario, the dealer and your partner both passing isn't that bad as you have all suits blocked. Ordering this hand up in the first round from the 3rd spot and getting set would be a small tragedy since it was a risk you didn't need to take given the upside to passing--a real risk to always respect since 3rd seat orders are the toughest ones to make.
This one could even be a great pass second round if you're playing stick-the-dealer. No matter what the dealer calls, you've got a decent chance to euchre him.

You've got a guaranteed trick in any suit. You probably have at least two and likely three no matter what trump is. Figure:

1. If dealer passes, Ace-Spades is now out of play. Your King is now boss in spades and will probably take a trick.
2. If dealer calls clubs, you have the right.
3. If dealer calls hearts (reverse next), you have the right. If he calls diamonds, you have a guarded left. Either one is good for a trick.
4. The Ace of Diamonds will probably take a trick.

Thus, you've probably got two or three tricks here no matter what any other player does. That's a hand that you're always going to want to pass.
Yep exactly. Funny thing is this hand comes from a hand I played in my local tournament. I had the above hand in the 3rd spot and correctly passed. Then the dealer went alone with:

(Card_J-S) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_A-C)

She ended up getting euchred. Notice you can't get euchred on her hand unless you play it wrong. She took the first trick with a low spade, then sent out the Js, and then on the next play she lead the As instead of the Ac, allowing me to clean her out. Strictly speaking, her play is not wrong, but score dependent. If she were down 9-6, she should play the As before the Ac. Maximizing her chances at a 4 point sweep is worth the small risk of getting euchred.

Anyways, she was in utter shock after the hand, even during the hand. When I overtrumped her As and sent the Ks her exact words were: "Oh my god, Oh my god, I'm actually gonna get euchred on this hand. This is unreal." She was despondent, in shock for a solid 2 minutes afterward. I did my best to console her trying to explain to her that there is no shame in getting set by a legend. The "F U" look on her face was classic :)
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:03 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:24 pm
Question 1 - said not to go alone? However it depends on your two opponents. It said nothing about where in games you were or if either of the two opponents may be top competitors. If top competitors it is just as important to keep both at ZERO.
Sure there's other variables to consider. Point is if you're already up 6-0, you're more likely to end the tournament with a higher score if you just call with that perfect loner. Generally speaking, Going up 8-0 has more value than winning the game 10-0, so calling should be your default strategy unless you feel you have a strong reason to deviate. Also I intentionally made the scenario for game 1 so you actually had no idea how your night was gonna go. Most likely you're gonna have a sub-par game or two score-wise, so when you have a great chance to grab some extra points it's worth going for.
irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:24 pm
NO guarantee you will end up with 11, 12, or 13.
I don't care about guarantees, as long as the odds are on my side.

Based on the probability chart I linked to, we have a 96% chance of getting 10, 11, 12, or 13 points and a 4% chance of only getting 8 or 9 points. The risk is worth it especially when you consider the fact that the 4% of the time you get 8/9 is not a doomsday scenario. That's still a quality loss points-wise which keeps you firmly in the hunt to win the tournament.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:05 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm
Response to Answers on The QUIZ:

Realize this is not grade school where there is ONE right answer. The correct answer is - where you achieve your objective according to what occur from your partners the Majority of the time (statistically). And that is severely lacking for each or at least most of the answers.
I'm ok with this. As long as there is not some euchre simulator out there where we can run a scenario a millions times and compare it to other scenarios, there will be some uncertainty we all have to live with (for now).
irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm
RAnd I probably agreed with Wes (at least in part) than most who did the Quiz. As my answers are, it is one person's opinion even though may be a highly skilled person. Various answers based on opponents. Euchre is a statistical game and what players do is more variable than the cards themselves. So how you play each hand also has to change accordingly.


There are adjustments you have to make for bad partners, highly skilled partners and the same for opponents. That is outside the scope of the quiz, but the quiz can be used as a tool to stimulate that kind've discussion. For example, in hand 11) I advocated a pass from the 3rd seat. If your partner is a bad player who passes a lot and doesn't go alone enough, then one can argue that's a good reason to call. Conversely, if seat 1 is highly skilled, calling from the 3rd seat with that holding is even more likely to be a mistake.
irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm
Realize these answers by WES are by an aggressive player. Knowing that, he is vulnerable to BAGGING. Set back and wait for some aggressive calls.
I think worrying about bagging is just being paranoid, and there's often nothing you can do about it anyways. If the enemy turns down a black card and you have nothing in red, you gotta call thin in Next no matter what the nature of the enemy is. Yes vs conservative opponents you'll go set more, but you'll also get to call more. The latter outweighs the annoyance of the former in the long run.

Altho I never worry about bagging, there is a time I get concerned, and that's when there is a pro in the 1st seat. If a pro's in the first seat, I have to tighten up on my reverse next calls. Almost by definition a pro is not gonna pass in the 2nd rd from the 1st seat unless he has reverse next blocked, which means calling reverse next too weak isn't gonna work out that well. But even this is kindve a mythical problem. I play on an app where around 10k people play per day, and only like 5-10 players, I.E. .01% play at that top level.

That said, there is certainly room for bagging strategically. E.G. you're in the dealer seat and a pro is in first seat. If you have a biddable hand that blocks all suits and has a strong chance of setting a next call then pass.

Upcard: (Card_K-S)

Your hand: (Card_A-H) (Card_J-D) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)

Another example.

Upcard: (Card_9-C)

Your hand: (Card_A-H) (Card_J-D) (Card_K-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_10-C)
irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm
For example #19: His answer is statistically incorrect for many hands played - # 19. WHY- leading a bower first is not the Best way to get a euchre. Eldest has two bowers and MUST have a trick from your partner. Leading a bower will strip your partner of his one trump but more importantly - it will shut down any further trump lead from the dealer. You have to first try to hit your partner for an ace or to trump your lead. If the dealer trumps, he/she will now lead trump and you get both hits by your bowers AND another off suit lead to your partner for a possible Ace. In addition, your partner can sort his hand to save an off suit doubleton to catch the dealer's off suit.
This set up occurs a often - I have studied it in detail and confident in my statements above.
I don't feel strongly one way or another about this hand. I posted it becuz of the good discussion on it at another site. I am fully aware of the conventional strategy here. I know we are all taught not to lead a bower in this spot. To me, just sharing the fact that other strong players--who take the game very seriously--have a different opinion on something we all tend to take for granted as true (along with a well thought out argument), has value in itself.
irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm
#9 - score is 9 to 6 - better to go for two points and IT 'S YOUR DEAL NEXT. The answer almost assumes the opponents are UNAWARE of what a loner in next would do. I would agree only if opponents were weak but that is not what was given to ASSUME for answering the questions.
Not sure what you mean by "weak" but 99% of euchre players just play their cards. Either way, I understand if people disagree with me on this one. This "loner" has worked out often enough for me to give it a try, and it still scores a point a decent amount of times too. Everyone's free to disagree, but down 9-6 I'm going for the win. I couldn't live with myself otherwise. That said, if that mythical euchre simulator says I shouldn't then I would change up.
irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm
#24. The answer is another one. 9D is the upcard - score is 0 to 0. One is you are playing as if you alone and not considering your partner has five cards. What do you think are the odds of the dealer having a loner, or his partner with a 9 up? VERY LOW - statistically conceding one point - 10% advantage to the opponent many hands played is the answer. And if assuming you believe Natty, he would never donate at 0 t0 0. If the Jack were up then statistically it goes up (to 1 in 6 hands). Is that good enough to donate as well.
I can't prove I'm right. Just saying what I believe is right. Also, I'm not playing as if I'm alone. I have 6 exposed cards of information to work with here, and my job as seat 1, the most important seat in the game, is to utilize that information and do what's best for my team. The best evidence I have here is I have literally played in some of the toughest games in world. Remember those 5-10 pros on the app. It's rare, but I have played in games on the app where a pro is sitting in all 4 seats, and they all insta-donate in that scenario. Again, that doesn't prove anything, but it is some evidence. Math is still the ultimate answer, but we don't have a euchre simulator so we just have to accept the possibility we are wrong, especially in controversial spots. I've laid out why I think it's a donate, but others are free to disagree.
irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:17 pm
#25 - score is 0 - 3. Going alone - if opponents lead to your void - clubs you have to use your ace and lead the left. Opponent will have the right 56% of the time. Another lead of clubs you have no answer. And one of those opponents will have another trump for a euchre. Eldest leading from 3 of an off suit to one of those aces, Pone has a good chance to trump. A euchre now yo0u are down 5 to 0. You will lose most games that way. Assist and go for 2 pts - now only down by 1.
Yes things can go wrong, but this hand has a lot of good things going for it too. I'm fine with people disagreeing with me on this one. If they at least consider this hand as a loner candidate then I've accomplished my goal even if they end up rejecting the idea.
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:49 am, edited 3 times in total.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:03 pm

You were playing against a dumb ASS. You can't euchre me in a MILLION years with me having JS AS 10S 9S AC going alone - only if I am dumb enough to lead AS on trick 3. Why do this when only third seat played a trump to my JS. I lead my AC on trick 3 you have to use a trump and now only have the Left and I have AS 10S 9S.

Laughable!


YOU SAID:
Yep exactly. Funny thing is this hand comes from a hand I played in my local tournament. I had the above hand in the 3rd spot and correctly passed. Then the dealer went alone with:

(Card_J-S) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-S) (Card_A-C)

She ended up getting euchred. Notice you can't get euchred on her hand unless you play it wrong. She took the first trick with a low spade, then sent out the Js, and then on the next play she lead the As instead of the Ac, allowing me to clean her out. Strictly speaking, her play is not wrong, but score dependent. If she were down 9-6, she should play the As before the Ac. Maximizing her chances at a 4 point sweep is worth the small risk of getting euchred.

Anyways, she was in utter shock after the hand, even during the hand. When I overtrumped her As and sent the Ks her exact words were: "Oh my god, Oh my god, I'm actually gonna get euchred on this hand. This is unreal." She was despondent, in shock for a solid 2 minutes afterward. I did my best to console her trying to explain to her that there is no shame in getting set by a legend. The "F U" look on her face was classic :)

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:34 pm

QUIZ # 10 - Order the dealer from 1st seat - this hand is weaker than 11 & 16.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:46 pm

Again, these answers are opinions without statistics or hands played to back up the answers to those that are marginal. Proof comes by way of statistical analysis and or several random hands set up and played. This is lacking for a concrete strategy for play. Those I suggested as marginal for starters.

Verbiage is not proof, called Gut probability and it is frequently incorrect.

WES - Your QUIZ AND ANSWERS!

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:26 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:34 pm
QUIZ # 10 - Order the dealer from 1st seat - this hand is weaker than 11 & 16.
You're absolutely correct. That hand is weaker than 11 & 16, and yet those answers still stand. That's the wonderful thing about Euchre. It's not just about playing your cards, the game is more complex than that. It's about playing the situation. In fact, to be even more bold, if one doesn't understand why the above apparent contradiction is actually no contradiction at all, they will never be a great euchre player.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:57 am

WES,
You do a lot of chess beating, I am not so sure it's justified. You have not proven your self proclaimed top of the heap. i take it you believe you have absolute authority on your answers as being correct. I say otherwise!

Hand #16 - what is your EV of being euchred? What is your EV on dealer making trump? What is your EV of Eldest in calling (and of what)?

You have to have some strategy with specific EV?

Irishwolf


You're absolutely correct. That hand is weaker than 11 & 16, and yet those answers still stand. That's the wonderful thing about Euchre. It's not just about playing your cards, the game is more complex than that. It's about playing the situation. In fact, to be even more bold, if one doesn't understand why the above apparent contradiction is actually no contradiction at all, they will never be a great euchre player.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:46 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:57 am
WES,
You do a lot of chess beating, I am not so sure it's justified. You have not proven your self proclaimed top of the heap. i take it you believe you have absolute authority on your answers as being correct. I say otherwise!

Hand #16 - what is your EV of being euchred? What is your EV on dealer making trump? What is your EV of Eldest in calling (and of what)?

You have to have some strategy with specific EV?

Irishwolf
I've said it before and I'll say it again. We don't have that theoretical euchre simulator. We can't just run a spot a million times and compare different strategies. In poker, we have large databases available played by experts online and we can see how they played certain spots. As far as I know, we don't even have that with euchre. So, yes, there is going to be a degree of uncertainty here. All I can do is present my answers and tell people why I think they are correct. If my reasons aren't compelling, anyone is free to reject them. If you or anyone else thinks I suck at euchre that's fine. I don't care. It's just a game man.

PS: And yes, I strongly think #16 is a clear pass. I've made my case. I think RedDuke explains it even better. Calling in the first round from the 3rd seat and fighting for a point is a very poor way to play a euchre hand in my expert, esteemed, prestigious, holy opinion.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:35 pm

You failed to answer my Questions on Your EVs? Let's face it - you use SWAG and are not open to any analysis - ANOTHER CLOSED MIND. Self appointed expert.

Let me assure you the answer is by ordering you will score a point 73% +/- 5% OF THE TIME. That is the best strategy on this hand. I could break this down statistically. For example the JS will be buried or with my partner - 44.5%. Additionally, the JS will be at 2nd seat and unguarded 50% of the time and that AS will be the only trump he has 35% of the time. Your known statistically is in shambles - spot a million times, times? Where did you get that idea?

Tired of wasting my time with you. So much for a Legend. You get about 75% on your own test - C+.

IrishWolf

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We don't have that theoretical euchre simulator. We can't just run a and compare different strategies. In poker, we have large databases available played by experts online and we can see how they played certain spots. As far as I know, we don't even have that with euchre. So, yes, there is going to be a degree of uncertainty here. All I can do is present my answers and tell people why I think they are correct. If my reasons aren't compelling, anyone is free to reject them. If you or anyone else thinks I suck at euchre that's fine. I don't care. It's just a game man.

PS: And yes, I strongly think #16 is a clear pass. I've made my case. I think RedDuke explains it even better. Calling in the first round from the 3rd seat and fighting for a point is a very poor way to play a euchre hand in my expert, esteemed, prestigious, holy opinion.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:52 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:35 pm
You failed to answer my Questions on Your EVs? Let's face it - you use SWAG and are not open to any analysis - ANOTHER CLOSED MIND. Self appointed expert.

Let me assure you the answer is by ordering you will score a point 73% +/- 5% OF THE TIME. That is the best strategy on this hand. I could break this down statistically. For example the JS will be buried or with my partner - 44.5%. Additionally, the JS will be at 2nd seat and unguarded 50% of the time and that AS will be the only trump he has 35% of the time. Your known statistically is in shambles - spot a million times, times? Where did you get that idea?

Tired of wasting my time with you. So much for a Legend. You get about 75% on your own test - C+.

IrishWolf
You have not come close to proving your case. You'd have to run a simulation, with a very large sample size comparing the outcome of calling vs passing with this hand. For now, whether we like it or not we'll have to rely on "swag" if that's what you wanna call it. And my Swag-O-Meter says trying to fight it out for a point in the toughest seat in the game with a strong euchre hand--I.E. a hand that blocks all suits with nearly 2 tricks in every suit--is poor level zero play that conveys a facile understanding of the game.

PS: Just found out that Swag-O-Meter is actually a real word on urbandictionary rendering this discussion more fruitful than anticipated.

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