Seat 2 Round 1 Score 9-8...

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Richardb02
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Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Seat 2 Round 1 Score 9-8...

Post by Richardb02 » Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pm

(Card_10-C) Up
(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)
You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri May 17, 2019 10:58 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pm
(Card_10-C) Up
(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)
You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9
Easy call from Seat 2. You have two guaranteed tricks, your team has at least 4 out of the 7 trump and your partner gets to create a void. This is a good situation, not a marginal one. If seat 1 leads a garbage spade make sure to throw off giving your partner a chance to take that trick and effectively end the game on the first lead.

Also, passing here is not "playing it safe" anyways. If you pass and your partner passes, seat 1 can now close out the game with a red call. Playing it safe is making this very good call in the first round.

RedDuke
Posts: 275
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Sun May 19, 2019 4:58 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 10:58 pm
Richardb02 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pm
(Card_10-C) Up
(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)
You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9
Easy call from Seat 2. You have two guaranteed tricks, your team has at least 4 out of the 7 trump and your partner gets to create a void. This is a good situation, not a marginal one. If seat 1 leads a garbage spade make sure to throw off giving your partner a chance to take that trick and effectively end the game on the first lead.

Also, passing here is not "playing it safe" anyways. If you pass and your partner passes, seat 1 can now close out the game with a red call. Playing it safe is making this very good call in the first round.
Agreed. Up 9-8, passing with this hand should be a capital felony.

Honestly, I would not pass here at any score. As Wes said, you have two guaranteed tricks in your hand. You also have nothing blocked except spades. You can't stop your opponents from getting a point if your partner passes and they'd have the deal next with about 70% equity.

Playing it safe here is calling. This is not an aggressive call at all.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon May 20, 2019 8:53 pm

There's suuuuuuuch an easy way to make this hand interesting. Change the scenario to Seat 1 Round 1. Now what guys.

Richardb02
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Tue May 21, 2019 6:33 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:34 pm
(Card_10-C) Up
(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)
You are Seat 2. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
Call or Pass?
Do you play safe because Opponents have 8 points?
Does this post help?
https://ohioeuchre.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=110&sid=4ef0466436184aa9e4d1491a8ab170f9
Thanks Wes and RedDuke. I reached the same conclusion. I just had that moment of indecision. So I wanted to see if others shared that indecision. I reached my conclusion based on BPS - Basic. The example is a typical, basic play. I just had to double check before calling.

As to:
(Card_10-C) Up
(Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)
You are Seat 1. Up 9-8. Average & equal players.
0.25 Seat 1 Round 1
0.75 Left
0.50 Ac
0.50 Kc
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trumps
2.75 Call with 2.25 points generally
0.25 Adjustment when we have 9 points
-.25 Adjustment because Opponents have 8 points
2.75 No net change. Call.

RedDuke
Posts: 275
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Tue May 21, 2019 8:43 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 8:53 pm
There's suuuuuuuch an easy way to make this hand interesting. Change the scenario to Seat 1 Round 1. Now what guys.
I'm still calling in that situation. You have a good chance of being able to take three tricks with what's in your hand unless your partner has total garbage. The worst scenario is going to be if the dealer has the right and a couple of aces.

On the other hand, there's no chance that they'll be able to get more than one point if they call since you have two guaranteed tricks in your hand. Then you'd get the deal and a 70% chance to win.

If I knew for sure that the enemy would call this, I might consider passing in seat 1 round 1. But given what we know, I'm going to call and hope that my partner is good for one or that dealer doesn't have the right. It seems like the best option, especially because you literally have nothing for a round 2 call.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 6:33 am
2.75 No net change. Call.
RedDuke wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:43 am
I'm still calling in that situation.
I agree it's a call. Certainly not a call I love tho.

Ok what about this hand I had yesterday, from Seat 1, 1st rd, up 9-8:

Dealer upcard: (Card_A-H)

I had (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-S)

What do you do?

RedDuke
Posts: 275
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pm
Richardb02 wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 6:33 am
2.75 No net change. Call.
RedDuke wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:43 am
I'm still calling in that situation.
I agree it's a call. Certainly not a call I love tho.

Ok what about this hand I had yesterday, from Seat 1, 1st rd, up 9-8:

Dealer upcard: (Card_A-H)

I had (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-S)

What do you do?
Wow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.

I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.

Richardb02
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pm

Ok what about this hand I had yesterday, from Seat 1, 1st rd, up 9-8:

Dealer upcard: (Card_A-H)

I had (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-S)

What do you do?
Wow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.

I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.
0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.

If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed May 22, 2019 2:45 am

RedDuke wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm
Wow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.

I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.
Richardb02 wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm

0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.

If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
I passed hoping the dealer would pick up. Up 9-8 I just didn't wanna call this marginal and risk getting euchred. Yeah I have a nothing hand in the 2nd round and have to pass but it isn't like a guarantee that my opponents are gonna get 2 points on a call, altho granted the chances are much higher than typical given how bad my hand is, but at least it's still possible I could help. I do have a very dirty boss Kh that might take a trick on the last lead or something. IDK, becuz there's still a decent chance that I can end up with the deal at 9-9 as a 2-1 favorite I decided I couldn't call this marginal.

Results: I passed and the dealer turned it down. I passed in the 2nd round, and the 2 seat called black and closed out the game with 2 points. Sigh.

RedDuke
Posts: 275
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Wed May 22, 2019 8:41 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 2:45 am
RedDuke wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm
Wow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.

I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.
Richardb02 wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm

0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.

If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
I passed hoping the dealer would pick up. Up 9-8 I just didn't wanna call this marginal and risk getting euchred. Yeah I have a nothing hand in the 2nd round and have to pass but it isn't like a guarantee that my opponents are gonna get 2 points on a call, altho granted the chances are much higher than typical given how bad my hand is, but at least it's still possible I could help. I do have a very dirty boss Kh that might take a trick on the last lead or something. IDK, becuz there's still a decent chance that I can end up with the deal at 9-9 as a 2-1 favorite I decided I couldn't call this marginal.

Results: I passed and the dealer turned it down. I passed in the 2nd round, and the 2 seat called black and closed out the game with 2 points. Sigh.
That's exactly why I feel the need to call. Because you have nowhere to go second round and there's a very good chance that they'll make the reverse next sweep if you do nothing.

Yeah, the ideal thing is that the dealer picks up and you can limit them to one point but you can't count on that. No matter what you call second round, you're looking at your opponents having a decent shot at 2 points either by euchring your call or by a reverse next sweep.

If I passed and the dealer didn't pick up, I might call diamonds second round despite having nothing hoping to god that my partner can salvage the call. Really though, he'd have to have a red jack or two to pull that off and his hand would be just as good with hearts as trump.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu May 23, 2019 2:06 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:41 am
That's exactly why I feel the need to call. Because you have nowhere to go second round and there's a very good chance that they'll make the reverse next sweep if you do nothing.
Having 3 trump + no where to go in the 2nd around almost always = call, at least in my opinion. Up 9-8 is a whole different animal imo. This is why I hate 9-8 scenarios. So much of the nuance of the game is gone. It's basically either you have it or you don't, and now you're forced to just play your cards like everyone else.

A key to the argument for calling or passing tho is heavily determined by how often a reverse next sweep will happen if the dealer passes and we pass. Care to venture a guess on this? Just curious what you think this number could be. I have my own guess. Just wondering how close we are on that. This could help me build an admittedly very crude EV model
RedDuke wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:41 am
Yeah, the ideal thing is that the dealer picks up and you can limit them to one point but you can't count on that.
Some more percentages we need for the model:

1) If we pass how often will the dealer pick up?

2) And when he does pick up, (A) how often will we euchre him, (B) how often will he score a point and (C) how often will he get 2 points.
RedDuke wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:41 am
No matter what you call second round, you're looking at your opponents having a decent shot at 2 points either by euchring your call or by a reverse next sweep.

If I passed and the dealer didn't pick up, I might call diamonds second round despite having nothing hoping to god that my partner can salvage the call. Really though, he'd have to have a red jack or two to pull that off and his hand would be just as good with hearts as trump.
Can't call in the 2nd round. That would be extremely reckless up 9-8. Gotta pass and pray in that spot. If the score were 0-0 and I incorrectly passed on 3 trump the 1st round, then I would call diamonds in the 2nd rd as a pure donation, certainly a controversial play that the majority of euchre players disagree with, but that's what I would do. But we can't do that at 9-8. Now a euchre costs us the game, and stopping a loner doesn't apply at that score.

Also, another key probability I need you guys to guess at: If we call in the first round what is the probability we get euchred which is just another way of asking what is the probability we win the game since it's one or the other in that spot.

Richard this post is also for you. Give me some guesses at those probabilities. There are no wrong answers here. I'll just plug in the numbers you guys give me and make the crude model and see what it says.

Richardb02
Posts: 176
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Post by Richardb02 » Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 8:07 pm
RedDuke wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 pm
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 6:06 pm

Ok what about this hand I had yesterday, from Seat 1, 1st rd, up 9-8:

Dealer upcard: (Card_A-H)

I had (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-C) (Card_10-S)

What do you do?
Wow. That's a tough call. It blocks nothing, but at the same time you've got nowhere to go in round 2. If you call, you're giving the enemy a card that will beat anything you've got. If he's also got a bower and maybe a side ace, you're seriously SOL.

I'd probably bite the bullet and call it, praying that my partner at least has a bower just because I can't think of a better option. I'm not happy about that call though.
0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.

If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
Wes, let's see if I covered everything.:
Calling 50% chance of winning, 10% being euchred, 40% enemy gets 1
Passing: I used a 10% chance of the enemy calling and getting 2 points, in my post.
15.3% is my average. I reduced the probability by 1/3 for calling. I should have increased it by 1/3 to 20% for passing, since my hand is weak for defending.
That changes my last conclusion to: So 50% chance of winning by calling and 52% (65*80%) to 56% (70*80%), if I pass. So still a hair better to pass. Reality? Too close to call.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat May 25, 2019 3:45 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 pm
0.25 S1 R1
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.25 9h
0.25 Void
0.50 3 trump
-.25 negative impact of the up card
1.75 Two clicks below 2.25 points for a call from S1. I am passing.
____ Additional thoughts: Euchre costs the game. probably a 50/50 possibility of getting 1 point. 10% chance of enemy getting 2, if I pass. 65-70% chance of winning the next hand. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 58% (65*90%) to 63% (70*90%), if I pass.

If I had just 0.25 more points, ie Q vs 10h, I would call.
Richardb02 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 pm
, let's see if I covered everything.:
Calling 50% chance of winning, 10% being euchred, 40% enemy gets 1
Passing: I used a 10% chance of the enemy calling and getting 2 points, in my post.
15.3% is my average. I reduced the probability by 1/3 for calling. I should have increased it by 1/3 to 20% for passing, since my hand is weak for defending.
That changes my last conclusion to: So 50% chance of winning by calling and 52% (65*80%) to 56% (70*80%), if I pass. So still a hair better to pass. Reality? Too close to call.
Ok let's see what I get based on my guesses.

If we call we will get euchred 40% of the time, so a call wins the game 60% of the time. Calling win equity = 60%

If we pass, the dealer's team will pick up 25% of the time (it can't be that high of a number since we have 3 trump), they will make a point 70% of the time, make 2 points for the win 3% of the time (it's low due to us having 3 trump) and they will get euchred 27% of the time (on the high side cuz we have 3 trump). 75% of the time the dealer's team will pass, and after we pass in the 2nd round 25% of the time the dealer's team will score 2 points for the win, 3% of the time they will get euchred (a low number due to us having near nothing), and 72% of the time they score 1 point. Ok here's what this EV model looks like (the .65 number represents our equity as the dealer at 9-9):

Win equity of passing: .25 [.27 + (.70 x .65)] + .75 [(.72 x .65) + .03] = 55.5%

60% > 55.5%, therefore we should call in the first round.

I basically pulled these numbers out of my ass. I have no idea how closely they reflect reality. I think it's kinda ironic that my guesses suggest we call even tho I advocate a pass. Obviously all these numbers can be tweaked around to get whatever answer we want, but just from doing the above EV exercise, I guess I'd have to draw the same conclusion as Richard, it's too close to call.

Richardb02
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pm

Wes, some observations:
1. This is getting complicated. Too complicated. I am tracking with you and it still takes me almost 2 hours to fully understand your formula.
2. Your instincts say pass. Your model says call. Something is out of whack! We need to explore the thinking some more but without complicating the discussion.
3. So let's look for the major factors and focus on them.
__A. The biggest difference is 0.10 between your WAG (Wild Ass Guess) that calling will be successful 60% of the time and my 50% SWAG (Scientific WAG) based on the Basic Point System. I could justify my BPS, and I am confident in my 50% probability, but let me point out that if you use 50%, your EV model favors calling by 5.5%.
__B. The 2nd biggest factor, isn't even that big under closer examination. You give Enemy a 25% chance of getting 2 points, I give Enemy a 20% chance. That nets out to -0.0375. If you use my 20% SWAG, your EV is now 9.25 in favor of calling.

Yes Wes, I am supporting your experience and instincts saying pass. My observation is that your average percentages reflect that you "Donate" much more than I donate. This is definitely not an appropriate situation for donating. So my percentages more accurately reflect the probabilities, in this 9-8, S1 situation.

I will make my simpler EV Model more in line with your recommendation to pass. I'll agree to your 65% probability that the Dealer earns at least 1 point. Let's add your 3% probability that Enemy gets euchred, if they call R1. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 61% (68*90%), if I pass. 11.0 in favor of passing.

So I now suggest that there is a small but definite advantage to passing in this situation. Please note that before this discussion Wes and I had agreed that it was too close to call.

Everyone, please post Call or Pass, o explanation needed.

Admin can we make this a poll?

There were 84 views at this point Let's see if we can get to 200.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue May 28, 2019 5:17 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pm
I could justify my BPS, and I am confident in my 50% probability, but let me point out that if you use 50%, your EV model favors calling by 5.5%.
I think you meant 'favors passing by 5.5%'. Also as much as I hate point systems--and I do--I would favor your point system guess over my "wild ass guess". And if we avg our two WAGs to 45%, passing still edges out calling.

Richardb02 wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pm
__B. The 2nd biggest factor, isn't even that big under closer examination. You give Enemy a 25% chance of getting 2 points, I give Enemy a 20% chance. That nets out to -0.0375. If you use my 20% SWAG, your EV is now 9.25 in favor of calling.
Again, I think you meant "your EV is now 9.25 in favor of passing". To be honest, I actually feel like Seat 2 is getting 2 points significantly more often than 25% given how bad our hand is, but I do not take much stock into "feels".
Richardb02 wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pm
Yes Wes, I am supporting your experience and instincts saying pass. My observation is that your average percentages reflect that you "Donate" much more than I donate. This is definitely not an appropriate situation for donating. So my percentages more accurately reflect the probabilities, in this 9-8, S1 situation.

I will make my simpler EV Model more in line with your recommendation to pass. I'll agree to your 65% probability that the Dealer earns at least 1 point. Let's add your 3% probability that Enemy gets euchred, if they call R1. So 50% chance of winning by calling and 61% (68*90%), if I pass. 11.0 in favor of passing.

So I now suggest that there is a small but definite advantage to passing in this situation. Please note that before this discussion Wes and I had agreed that it was too close to call.

I just wanted to point out that if one deems this "too close to call" that in itself is an argument for passing. I.E. if it's close one should err on the side of passing. This may seem like a direct contradiction to my advice in the "Calling Next with 1 trump + off ace, an EV analysis" thread where I said if it's close we should err on the side of calling, but it's not. Up 9-8 is a totally different animal than normal euchre. Getting euchred in this spot and blowing a possibility of having the deal at 9-9 as a 2-1 favorite is a small tragedy.
Richardb02 wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 12:43 pm
Everyone, please post Call or Pass, o explanation needed.

Admin can we make this a poll?

There were 84 views at this point Let's see if we can get to 200.
A poll would be pretty cool.

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Dlan
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Post by Dlan » Tue May 28, 2019 7:42 pm

I think the only way to create a poll is by starting a new topic. The poll would have to be the first post.

At the bottom of the editor, next to where it says 'options' there is a hamburg icon. Click that and you should be able to create a poll.

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