Pick up or Go Under

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jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Pick up or Go Under

Unread post by jblowery » Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:04 pm

You are the dealer holding (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-S). Upcard is the (Card_A-H).

You are playing a game where you have an option to go under. Do you pick up or go under? If you decide to go under, does being 2-suited change your mind?

(Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-S)



Richardb02
Posts: 600
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:49 pm

BPS results:
0.50 R1S4
0.50 Ah
0.50 Kh
0.25 Th
0.50 3 Trump, no bowers
0.25 1 Void
2.50 vs. 2.00 edge hand, so 2 klicks above minimum
Going under has minimum benefit, less than 1 klick or 0.25 points
The hand does not block a Next Loner, so I also need to be aggressive to protect my weak defense.
So definitely pick up.

If you are 2 suited, BPS goes to 3.00. The hand is 2 klicks stronger than the first hand. That equates to an 80% success expectation. So pick up with more confidence.

jblowery
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:10 am

Thanks for the clarification of "0.25 benefit for going under". I assume the same principle would apply in the case of rt. bower + 1 (after picking up) plus 3 low junk cards. In other words, pick up the up-card to form this "rt+1+junk" hand instead of going under.

Richardb02
Posts: 600
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Unread post by Richardb02 » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:00 pm

Let me clarify that going under has a “less than 0.25 benefit.” I mean “LESS THAN” 0.25 benefit. Rounding it off to 0.25 is simply rounding off to the nearest 0.25, which is the smallest increment to the BPS.

I explained those details because most people think that a “System” is meant to provide a precise answer. The Basic Bidding System uses numbers, actually decimals to two places, so it gives the impression of being an exact science. But it is designed to only be accurate for 80% of the scenarios! It rounds off values to 0.25, or 1/4 point. So it can’t be exact. It also can’t be more accurate, or it would be too complicated to use in an actual game. It is more than a guide, but it does not quantify every variable. I allow “non-quantified variables,” “gut in feelings,” and/or “instinct” to adjust my hand value from, 0.25 to 0.75 points. That is significant when compared to a 2.00 to 2.75 range of “minimum to orders.”

In most scenarios, I limit my adjustment to 0.25 points. Feel free to do that even when initially using BPS. Now, if you have 2 factors to consider, feel free to adjust 0.25 each, or 0.50 total, for the hand. Also note, that you have to decide whether to add or subtract the adjustment. The “go under” rule, is a negative adjustment. You would subtract 0.25, because it makes you less inclined to order. So if my hand tallies 2.25 points, but qualifies for “go under,” I subtract 0.25 points, degrading my hand to 2.00, which is the “edge.” I will make a “hand-time” decision at the edge, based on instinct (the intuitive mind, which is a combination of experience, minor factors and gut-level feelings). I will apply this information to your specific question.

R1S4, Rx jjj, as you described creates the following BPS at worse case:
0.50 R1S4
1.00 Right
0.25 R + 1 (I have added this factor since my 1st BPS post)
0.25 9trump
0.25 1 Void
2.25 points
-.25 for a game with the “go under” rule
2.00 The minimum S4 order, so
-.25 If that is your “gut response”
1.75 Pass
____Now, as I said, “going under” is worth less than 0.25, so I order, assuming that there are no other factors, either “gut” factors or “observable” factors. I value the hand as greater than 2.00. I play aggressively, I am comfortable with a 2 out of 3 success ratio. I do not get upset and lose my focus, if I get euchred. (I get upset, at myself only if I fail to make a good [not necessarily the perfect] decision.

I hope, that I have explained, that the BPS, is not a “robotic” approach. It addresses 80% (or more) of the 45,000 hands that the “euchre gods” have dealt you. You are responsible, for the other 20% of the scenarios. Stick to the basics of the BPS, and you can elevate your game to a higher level. Selectively apply, your personal Euchre-playing brilliance, and you will go even higher.

My goal, in constructing and explaining the BPS, is to constantly improve and to consistently play at a higher and higher level. Enjoy the BPS at your level. Come test your skill level at our Monday night games, every Monday, 850 PM ET at worldofcardgames.com. There are instructions on ohioeuchre.com. Feel free to ask any technical WoCG issues. Cya Monday nights and on the OE forum.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1283
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:43 pm

jblowery wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:04 pm
You are the dealer holding (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_10-C) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-S). Upcard is the (Card_A-H).

You are playing a game where you have an option to go under. Do you pick up or go under? If you decide to go under, does being 2-suited change your mind?

(Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-S)
Since you obviously don't know what you're gonna go under into I wouldn't let the "go under" option influence you into passing a biddable hand. And both those hands are biddable along with the R+1+junk hand you mentioned. I think it's critical to pick up all 3 hands for defensive purposes given that you block nothing.

I would pass a R+1 heart hand like this:

(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_J-C) (Card_9-S)

Becuz I block all suits and I would forgo the "go under" option precisely becuz of that too.

Off topic but here's a hypothesis I've been working with on the karman app:

Say you're the dealer and you have a marginal 3 trump heart hand like:

(Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D)

S1 or S3 go under and you pick up. Notice this spot really sux. Not only is your hand marginal but now your opponent's range is stronger than normal becuz they went under. You will go set quite often but I still think you have to grit your teeth and pick up becuz the cost of passing is super high in this spot given that you block nothing. This is a classic negative expected outcome call that is +EV relative to the higher negative expected outcome of passing.

Ok so here's my hypothesis: After you make this call, say S1 leads the AC and everyone follows suit and you trump in with the TH. Normally the proposed best strategy on this site would be to lead a garbage card next like the QS but I believe you should lead another heart instead. My reasoning is becuz you know your enemy is stronger in trump in this spot than normal it's now more critical that you take out 2 of their trump in one lead. If the enemy didn't go under then I would play the Qs. Again this is just a hypothesis but I believe it's correct.

RedDuke
Posts: 412
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:05 pm

I would call here and discard one of the tens (probably the ten of diamonds). This is an edge call. Getting euchred is a very real possibility. It's likely that one of the opponents is holding a bower. It's less likely that your partner has one (or if he does, it's something like left+low trump at best).

At the same time, you've got nothing to defend against a next loner from first seat if you pass and your partner probably doesn't have any real strength in red or he would have ordered you up.

I'd call here and hope for the best. Better to get euchred than have a loner hit you.

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