Unread post
by irishwolf » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:49 am
First of all you won't find what I am about to describe ANYWHERE in the World of Euchre. It is some what unique to me, and I have worked on stopping loners for a very long time. I have had a lot of players ask me the same question. In a previous discussion this was touched on briefly. I will also say too many players donate too much. If you are euchred three times in a game for all reasons, you will lose that game 90% of the time. That is a fact!
However, I also know that the team that scores a loner, either side, will win the game 85 - 90% of the time unless the other partnership scores a loner. So you have to block those loners. My philosophy is score does not matter. Of course you have to consider the score, can't donate at 8 & 8, etc.
I know what is in my hand and I combine that with some other sensing factors. Score is mostly not a factor for me until late in the game. I just know a loner attempt is coming but the score might be such I can't do it and just take my lumps. I track my donating. If you can't be in the range of 65% you might as well not donate at all. And that is probably what most players should do, not donate until 9 to 6 or 7.
The breakeven point is that I can donate twice in a game and still have a positive EV as long as only ONE of was a successful loner. If neither was a loner then I just gave away most likely only 1 point if one of those was a sweep. Those are great odds that favors me. Tracking, I am 75 - 80% accurate. I am NOT perfect (nothing is), and I can live with that. My focus is on the dealer but also noting my hand as well. I also factor in does my partner, when I at S3, believe in donating. I am actually more accurate at S3 in predicting. Thus, I can't tell what my partner might have a stopper, (still working on that part) like in the hand above.
So what about my partner? I also know statistically (fact) is well below 40% (about 20-25%) has the left guarded or an ace stopper or void to my lead (three variables unaccounted for but I know the range). But look at my hand above no stopper to that hand.
So you see, some is fact and some say fantasy but I know better! lol
~Irishwolf