Do you ever feel like you just can't win a game?

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bmw
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2023 10:36 am

Do you ever feel like you just can't win a game?

Unread post by bmw » Sat Jul 08, 2023 11:07 am

I play on Facebook's euchre app, and I have a lifetime win percentage of just over 56%. I like to think I'm pretty good. But the last few months my luck has been so rotten that I often wonder if it is just an incredibly long streak of bad luck or if the card dealing algorithm makes it more difficult on the better players.

This month, I have a 9-20 record, have given up 17 successful loners to opponents over those 29 games, have given up exactly 8 or 9 points in 7 of those 9 wins, and have an 0-9 record following a win.

So today I thought I was FINALLY going to get a back-to-back win for the first time in over 30 games. Scenario: Was leading 9-5 (had even taken a point while up 8-5 after a donation actually led to us getting 3 tricks), was in the seat immediately after the dealer, and everyone passed. From my perspective, this looked like game over with me calling diamonds. I had the right-ace-10 and a 1-suited off-ace.

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I led with the right, pulled out 9 and Queen. Then played my off-Ace. Dealer had no clubs, so trumped with King. Dealer then plays 9 of spades, which I have to play 10 and his partner takes with King. Dealer's left then wins the hand.

My starting hand should have won, what, 90%+ of the time?

Anyways, still up 9-7, and I'm dealer next. Still in good shape. In this hand, I have no jacks, but 3 aces and everyone passed. So I picked up the 9 of hearts and ditched my King of spades.

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Now how am I supposed to know that the person to my left is going to pass that up with the Right-King-10 while 2-suited? That player probably orders that up if not for the 2 diamonds to make a slightly weaker red hand to have on an open call without letting me pick up a trump and discard something. I of course went on to lose the hand.

Then the game is tied 9-9, opponent has a jack up, and the rest is history. And it feels like every game plays out like this. Hands that from my perspective I should be winning a high percentage of the time but keep losing them due to ridiculous setups.



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1541
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Jul 08, 2023 5:33 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2023 11:07 am
I play on Facebook's euchre app, and I have a lifetime win percentage of just over 56%. I like to think I'm pretty good. But the last few months my luck has been so rotten that I often wonder if it is just an incredibly long streak of bad luck or if the card dealing algorithm makes it more difficult on the better players.

This month, I have a 9-20 record, have given up 17 successful loners to opponents over those 29 games, have given up exactly 8 or 9 points in 7 of those 9 wins, and have an 0-9 record following a win.
Always remember when you're running bad that nobody cares or to make it sound less abrasive and more impersonal: the universe doesn't care. And ideally you shouldn't care about your own run-bad either. It's just noise to laugh at. Given that we're human I know that's easier said than done but that's the state of mind you always should be shooting for becuz in games or even life you don't wanna waste your time and energy focusing on variables you can't control. What matters is what you CAN control and that is how well you play. If you play a game, whether it be euchre or poker, etc, and you make the correct play at every opportunity then you should be happy with yourself and your play no matter what the outcome.

This mindset it critically important to maximizing one's earnings potential at games like poker, but even more critically--across all games--it's the mindset you want to have to avoid burnout becuz the fastest path to burnout is focusing on outcomes you can't control like winning and losing. Just do your best and let the proverbial chips fall where they may and be content with that.

Other comments: a lifetime win percentage of 56% is very good. If achieved over a large enough sample size I would deem you a top player. But I really don't wanna say that cuz then if you hit another downturn and drop to 55% or 54% you'll get really discouraged again!! Becuz focusing on winning % is just another way of focusing on winning and losing which gets you right back to being pissed off and frustrated again becuz like 95% of the time you will have a euchre partner who is not very good who can easily sabotage your team's winning chances. The better route is to almost ignore winning % and just focus on your game. Focus on getting better, thinking about the mistakes you made, thinking about the tough spots that can give you a hard time, and perhaps posting some hands in this forum looking for new insights.

Also worthy of note: Over the years I've played somewhere north of 40K games. I've had losing streaks of 15+ games. Online, I've had 500+ game runs with a losing record. This year in my weekly euchre tournament I had a losing record after 20 weeks. Not fun. Basically I've seen it all. Again tho, I just focus on making as many correct decisions as possible--the game within a game where you're always playing against yourself. That's always fun no matter what the outcome.
bmw wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2023 11:07 am
So today I thought I was FINALLY going to get a back-to-back win for the first time in over 30 games. Scenario: Was leading 9-5 (had even taken a point while up 8-5 after a donation actually led to us getting 3 tricks), was in the seat immediately after the dealer, and everyone passed. From my perspective, this looked like game over with me calling diamonds. I had the right-ace-10 and a 1-suited off-ace.

Image

I led with the right, pulled out 9 and Queen. Then played my off-Ace. Dealer had no clubs, so trumped with King. Dealer then plays 9 of spades, which I have to play 10 and his partner takes with King. Dealer's left then wins the hand.

My starting hand should have won, what, 90%+ of the time?
Definitely a really bad beat but you played the hand well. That's all that matters. How often should you have won the game with that hand. I don't exactly know, but my guess would've been 95%+.
bmw wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2023 11:07 am
Anyways, still up 9-7, and I'm dealer next. Still in good shape. In this hand, I have no jacks, but 3 aces and everyone passed. So I picked up the 9 of hearts and ditched my King of spades.

Image
I call this hand also, but I wonder about it at specifically up 9-7 becuz a euchre in this spot is pretty devastating (then it's 9-9 and your opponents have the deal with approx 65% equity) and you have decent defense if you did pass since you have 3 aces. Again, I'm still making the same call you are but I'm not 100% certain it is correct. Like I wouldn't be surprised if a good simulator showed passing is slightly better but then again that probably wouldn't change my play becuz a good simulator cannot account for the fact that I'm most likely gonna be playing with a partner who passes biddable hands in the 2 seat which makes my P's passing range slightly stronger which makes this marginal call slightly better perhaps enough to overcome the results of the simulator. But with a super-aggressive P like my gf who's range is superweak once they pass in the 2 seat, then I REALLY wonder about this call!
bmw wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2023 11:07 am
Now how am I supposed to know that the person to my left is going to pass that up with the Right-King-10 while 2-suited? That player probably orders that up if not for the 2 diamonds to make a slightly weaker red hand to have on an open call without letting me pick up a trump and discard something. I of course went on to lose the hand.
Yeah nothing you can do there. Seat 1 played his hand well as did you. As you noted, S1 passing his hand in that spot is standard with L+2 to run to in the 2nd rd.
bmw wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2023 11:07 am
Then the game is tied 9-9, opponent has a jack up, and the rest is history. And it feels like every game plays out like this. Hands that from my perspective I should be winning a high percentage of the time but keep losing them due to ridiculous setups.
My recommendation to you is forget about all these bad setups. Post some hands here and lets create some new conversations. Also if you ever come to Vegas you BETTER come to our tournament! It's every Thursday at 7:30pm. Go to vegaseuchre.com for more information.

bmw
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2023 10:36 am

Unread post by bmw » Sat Jul 08, 2023 10:07 pm

Thanks for the response.

My lifetime total is only around 2,000 games on there over the past 5-6 years or so. Longest win streak is 9. Longest losing streak is 14. I used to play Yahoo Euchre way back in the day and had a similar win percentage (rating close to 1700 with 1500 being base line, if I recall correctly).

One fascinating observation I've made in those 2000 or so games is that I've never once witnessed somebody other than me engaging in a loner-blocking donation. Not once. Occasionally players will acknowledge they understood the call, but more often than not when I do it, I get players asking me what in the world I'm doing. I had one person in particular I remember who I actually did block their loner (and won the game because of it) and they completely went off on me like I had cheated or something.

My other general observation is that I can guess whether a player has a winning or a losing record, with stunning accuracy, based on nothing more than how aggressively they play the first few hands. The more aggressive, the higher the win percentage, almost without exception.

Tbolt65
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Jul 23, 2023 1:46 am

Wes pretty much says it.

Bmw, where at yahoo did you played? I played in Mt. Everest and Adv 1 .

Tbolt65
Edward

bmw
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2023 10:36 am

Unread post by bmw » Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:12 pm

I always just played in the social lounges. I popped into the advanced once in a while.

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