Which Ace?

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coolguy69
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2023 2:36 am

Which Ace?

Unread post by coolguy69 » Fri May 05, 2023 12:53 pm

I have (Card_A-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-S) (Card_J-C) in seat 2

Ordered up the (Card_A-S) for my partner.

(Card_A-D) led by seat 1, I play (Card_K-S) and take the trick (everyone else followed suit)

I now have an option between AC and AH - which is better to lead here?

thx :)



irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Fri May 05, 2023 3:20 pm

WRONG PLAY - and you did not say what card your partner played? Every card counts; was it the KD or 9D or 10D.

LEAD LEFT BOWER!

IRISH

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Fri May 05, 2023 10:17 pm

Okay - leading trump, the Left instead of one of those aces! Let's justify that comment instead of an ace. Those aces if led are 'equal'. Why the trump lead?

1) Statistically, each opponent will have one trump (of 4 unknown) ~ 47% just one each. One will have two 25%. And one has three trumps less that 5%. And that also includes your partner.

2) You want to eliminate an opponent with just one trump to make your Aces good. Not leading trump you are begging that Ace lead before trump is led to trump your Ace.

3) Statistically, you partner will have a 2nd trump 76.6% of the time so you lead will only hurt if he has no other trump to accompany his AS. And if he only has the AS (23.4%) - Well, you're most likely screwed anyway as those other 4 trump are with opponents/deck. In the Deck helps you so its those opponents. So if this is the right decision, for sure 76.6%, why would you not lead trump?

4) If the Left lead falls to your lead, so what! You have two aces and if the Dealer played a low Diamond to the first trick, you are in great shape to make your point. (Plus your two aces.) But if S4 played the KD, and S1 had Right + KD you still might be okay.

5) The fundamental here is lead trump (once only, generally that is) before Aces are led.

So that my story and I am sticking to it!

IRISH

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Fri May 05, 2023 10:34 pm

But really, this could also be a PASS hand if you have a good partner. You pass and S1 calls Next your have Right - Ace with a Green ace + KS. If Diamonds is called, you still have two aces + the KS with AS down to stop a loner and most likely S4 has Diamonds covered. Three off suits stopped - I am Passing on R1.

It's just about who is playing, what the score and situation?

IRISH

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun May 07, 2023 1:02 am

Oh but Coolguy, you must not be silent! You posted for a reply . .

Either you agree or disagree . . . But all you had to do was ask the Legend.

AND you do not need a Simulator for an answer.

That is unless you are curious about just how lousy it is to lead an ace before leading trump.

WOLF

jblowery
Posts: 184
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun May 07, 2023 5:13 pm

Id never pass on that hand, even at 9-8 or 8-8. I agree w leading trump.

sdu754
Posts: 48
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:15 am

Unread post by sdu754 » Wed May 24, 2023 4:13 pm

coolguy69 wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 12:53 pm
I have (Card_A-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_K-S) (Card_J-C) in seat 2

Ordered up the (Card_A-S) for my partner.

(Card_A-D) led by seat 1, I play (Card_K-S) and take the trick (everyone else followed suit)

I now have an option between AC and AH - which is better to lead here?

thx :)
The best play is to simply lead Trump. When you have offsuit Aces you want to draw Trump. Worst case scenario is that your opponents have the Right Bower, and your partner only has one Trump. Even then, your Aces have a good chance at taking tricks with a round of Trump taken out of the equation.

As far as which Ace to lead (Let's say the Left Bower takes the trick), It doesn't matter. They are of equal value since you have the Ace in next as a singleton and the Ace in Hearts is a doubleton.

I like the call. too many would pass out of fear that they are stepping on their partner's toes or trying to get a euchre. Passing hands in the hopes of euchring your opponent will cost more games than it will ever win.

Tbolt65
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:58 pm

Irish makes a lot of valid statements. However whats the score. You may want to think of going alone. Not saying you should every time but there can be times you may want to try alone with this hand as well. I'd play for two the majority of the time myself by taking my partner. Lead trump see what falls. Worst case is you don't see the right. Your partner throws the Ace of trump and all you really have left is off suit but at least trump got pulled one time and you should get a good feel for how many trump is still available and who might have them.

Tbolt65
Edward

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