Left + 1 Pickup

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jblowery
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Left + 1 Pickup

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Feb 12, 2023 4:41 pm

Borderline situation for dealer. Score is 5-5. Good players at every seat.

Under which circumstances will u pick up in round 1 to give yourself left bower + 1 other trump?

For example, ranging from most to least aggressive:

a) always
b) always unless I have everything blocked
c) i have to have an off suite ace or be 2 suited
d) need 2 off suite aces
e) never



Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Feb 12, 2023 11:55 pm

I personally used to pick up Left - x always. But it depends on the situation. It's not always and its not never. So, it's somewhere in between.

Tbolt65
Edward

jblowery
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Mon Feb 13, 2023 9:11 am

Yah; that's why I'm asking. What are the specific circumstances under which you would do that?

Personally, I'll do it if I'm 2-suited or have an off-suite ace but not if I have all suites blocked.

Mxx
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Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:20 am

Unread post by Mxx » Mon Feb 13, 2023 9:13 pm

I don't pick this up because it's likely the opponent's have the right and S1 are most likely to call next, which you have blocked.

I have a question for you about picking up L+1 and an ace.

Assume you take the first trick by trumping in on your void. What do you lead for trick two?

Assume you win the first trick with your ace. What do you lead for trick two?

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:40 am

For example, ranging from most to least aggressive:

a) always
b) always unless I have everything blocked
c) i have to have an off suite ace or be 2 suited
d) need 2 off suite aces
e) never

This is actually a very odd question! And this "range" has little meaning, IMO.

The real question is this, the score is 5 to 5, so if you take a Euchre, then it's the opponent's deal next you CAN'T AFFORD to take a euchre as you will PROBABLY lose the game. Lots of variables to consider, IMO.

Your partner just Passed and do you know his usual pattern of play? And do you know S1 and his/her style of play?
The question leaves a lot to be desired. For example, you have not define what else you hold, all five cards (it matters), specifically for each?

All those variables determine what you should do!

But I will say this:

For sure rule out a) and e);

And b) answers itself!

And d) would most likely should be a PASS, but not always because you have not defined what suit those aces are?

So you are just left with c)! And you can't answer that without knowing all 5 cards and the other variables alluded to above.

And the same applies to the other question(s) by Mxx!

IRISH

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:52 am

Here is a Question for Ray's Simulator to c) above:

Borderline situation for dealer. Score is 5-5. Good players at every seat.

Under which circumstances will u pick up in round 1 to give yourself left bower + 1 other trump?

Upcard being QD and Dealer holds JH AS 9C KC 9H what are the EVs of picking up the QD vs Pass?

Upcard QD and if Dealer holds JH KS 9C KC 9H?

And if Dealer takes a euchre calling trump, what his chances of winning the Game?

IRISH

justme
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Unread post by justme » Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:01 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:52 am
And if Dealer takes a euchre calling trump, what his chances of winning the Game?
IRISH
With regard to the original question, yes there is information missing to draw a conclusion, specifically the upcard and the fifth card. I will state though, that at 5-5 score, any risk of a loner by the opps that my cards present would not deter me from passing.

If the dealing team is euchred on their call with Lx of trump at 5 - 5 score, I'd accept that their chance of winning the game, before the next hand is dealt will be about 32%.

raydog
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Tue Feb 14, 2023 6:45 pm

OK, I had a look at the hands Irish suggested (for a simulation, always easier to have a precise hand).

But first, here are the rules my simulator currently uses for bidding from S4 (dealer) when holding L+1 trump:
1) if all non-trump suits are led by an A: bid wp
2) if have 2 non-trump aces AND are 4-suited: bid wp
3) if have a non-trump A and are 3-suited with either of the following combinations (A + Q[or better]-x OR A-x + K): bid wp
4) else pass

[* these rules do not go into great detail / granularity, because to do so would lead to far greater complexity for very minimal gain in how well the simulator plays. It's a trade-off]

Hand #1: S4 holds AS + J-9H + K-9C (QD turned)
Of 100,000 hands simulated (all other hands random):
- S1 called ~7,300 hands
- S2 called ~ 23,900 hands
- S3 called ~ 2,900 hands
- S4 called ~ 65,900 hands

I isolated these ~66k hands (when S4 had a choice to make), and here are the results:
bid D: (2,677 / 37,132 / 25,900) [sweep / 1 pt / euchred] EV = -0.14
pass: EV = -0.11

So a very close call, and I can't really pick a side, given the assumptions inherent in my simulator (which currently bids).

Hand #2: S4 holds KS + J-9H + K-9C (QD turned)
bid D: (1,072 / 29,797 / 33,039) EV = -0.53
[unsurprisingly worse outcome, and about 2k fewer hands make it to S4 for a choice, given that the AS is out there somewhere - again, not surprising]
pass: EV = -0.34

Here, clearly better to pass (as my simulator currently does)

As Irish noted, and my simulator ostensibly substantiates, it is critical to know how your partner in S2 plays. They are biding nearly 1/4 of all hands in this particular situation, which drastically changes the universe of hands you are playing against (statistically) if you bid (or not) from S4. When we say "assume excellent players all around", I presume that to mean they are playing the REAL odds, and aren't making bids which are sub-optimal. So, bidding like my simulator, which I have programed to make the bid which results in the better EV [though still tweaking].

Just to give a bit more color on how well my simulator is playing (for those who are interested), I found that S1 got euchred quite often when bidding those 7,300 hands - not sure if they were bidding a bit too aggressively, or if their negative EV was actually justified (better than if they passed). S2 and S3 got great results when they bid, R1. When S4 passed and S1 bid R2, they also got rather poor results (often bidding next, when S4, unbeknownst to them, has the R). Again, not sure whether these are poor bids, or actually EV-optimizing bids. I am continually re-visiting the bidding criteria of my simulator, but it's a long process to methodically check every seat / every situation. Always tweaking for more accurate results!
Last edited by raydog on Wed Feb 15, 2023 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Feb 14, 2023 7:49 pm

Mxx also asked an excellent question about how to play the hand if S4 chooses to call trump and ends up winning the 1st trick. What should they lead for trick 2?

Far too many parameters here to offer a general answer, so I chose the initial hand that Irish proposed: S4 holds AS + J-9H + K-9C. Hopefully this will offer some insight.

So S4 calls trump with this hand, and wins the first trick. What should they lead, 2nd trick?

Win with QD: (about 10,000 of 100,000 total hands)
lead 9C: EV = -0.07
lead JH: EV = -0.32
lead AS: EV = -0.02

The "play of the hand" aspect of my simulator is not as optimized as the bidding. It's much harder to optimize, because there is no systematic way of doing it. But, from the results of tweaks I have made previously (which resulted in very marginal improvements), it's not far off best play. So in this case, I would say lead the (C or AS, but definitely NOT the JH.

Win with AS: (about 17,000 of 100,000 hands)
lead 9C: EV = +0.33
lead JH: EV = -0.05
lead QD: +0.03

Definitely lead the 9C here.

The theme here seems to be (for me) that you need your partner to win at least a trick, so let them show what they can do. Leading that 9C gives them the best chance: they can either trump or perhaps win without trump. And you keep your power cards in reserve.

jblowery
Posts: 184
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:58 pm

Thanks again everybody. Great discussion.

irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Feb 14, 2023 9:35 pm

EXCELLENT STUFF RAY!

I would have passed at that score for both Hands 1 & 2 and your simulator confirms it! COOL! However if up by 3 or more, I am not Passing here. With 66K hands a difference of .03 makes it Statistically significant (I checked it out). Hand #2 is no surprise! The take away is to know the 'tendencies' of S1 for R2 calls for this particular holding.

Per your 1st Post:

Hand # 1 : I isolated these ~66k hands (when S4 had a choice to make), and here are the results:
bid H: (2,677 / 37,132 / 25,900) [sweep / 1 pt / euchred] EV = -0.14
pass: EV = -0.11

Hand #2: S4 holds KS + J-9H + K-9C (QD turned)
bid H: (1,072 / 29,797 / 33,039) EV = -0.53
[unsurprisingly worse outcome, and about 2k fewer hands make it to S4 for a choice, given that the AS is out there somewhere - again, not surprising]
pass: EV = -0.34

Just to clarify tho, Diamonds, QD was picked up here for Hands # 1 & #2 (Diamonds is trump)?

Confirm please!

IRISH

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Wed Feb 15, 2023 7:29 am

Sorry - Diamonds indeed trump. I have edited my initial post. Also, just to clarify, I don't consider score with my simulator (it becomes much more complicated), so you have to adjust your play to account for score. I believe there was a question about odds of winning the game if euchred on this hand at this score, I'll run that this afternoon.

raydog
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:16 pm

So I find that if you get euchred and are down 7-5 at the start of the next deal (opponents dealing), your odds of winning the game are 25.6%. This is based on standardized odds of scoring +4, +2, +1, -1, -2 or -4 points on each subsequent deal (taking into account no going alone with 8 or 9 points, and who is dealing), and summing the probabilities of each possible path to victory for you and your opponents. Calculated by a java program, because there are many possible combinations.

Mxx
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Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:20 am

Unread post by Mxx » Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:19 pm

Thank you to the OP for this topic and to all the answers. This is a spot I have tried out alot over the years. I can't seem to make it work well enough with random opponents. Maybe with a regular partner it could work better e.g. where S2 passes more to maximise loaners, knowing you will pick up weak hands

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