Next Situation

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jblowery
Posts: 184
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Next Situation

Unread post by jblowery » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:19 am

Here's a common type of situation. Wondering a) if you're going to call next or pass and b) what you'll lead. This seems like trying ti make the best of a bad situation.

Dealer turns down (Card_Q-H) and you're in 1st seat holding

(Card_K-D) (Card_Q-D) (Card_K-S) (Card_K-C) (Card_K-H)

Personally, I'm calling diamonds and leading one of my black cards. If I has an ace I'd lead diamonds. I'm sure the EV is negative but I'm thinking even worse if I pass. Even if my partner calls anything he/she'll probably get euchered.



irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Jan 15, 2023 10:42 am

I am not sure why people post situations that a 'totally' incomplete in not saying anything about IMPORTANT details like score, who's playing etc etc.

IRISH

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 15, 2023 11:04 am

I have done a simulation of this, but will wait to post in case anyone else wants to say how they would play.

I'm assuming neutral score (say, 0-0), and I am playing with ... my "simulated" partners. In other words, decent players, with no particular predilections.

jblowery
Posts: 184
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:28 pm

Ok irish. Assume 0-0 against excellent players. I'm talking about a typical situation. None of us spend much time playing bad players and we all know that scores wth 8s or 9s are unique situations.
Last edited by jblowery on Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jblowery
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:32 pm

raydog wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 11:04 am
I have done a simulation of this, but will wait to post in case anyone else wants to say how they would play.

I'm assuming neutral score (say, 0-0), and I am playing with ... my "simulated" partners. In other words, decent players, with no particular predilections.
Yes. I thought that would be obvious but i guess i was wrong..

justme
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Unread post by justme » Sun Jan 15, 2023 4:52 pm

Score matters, nothing else. At opps on 9, I call diamonds and lead my Kd. At all other scores neither my dreaming nor any greed will get the best of me. I pass. The most I am likely risking is one point.

jblowery
Posts: 184
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:30 pm

But passing isn't risking just 1 pt, especially with that hand.

justme
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Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:06 pm

Unread post by justme » Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:52 pm

jblowery wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:30 pm
But passing isn't risking just 1 pt, especially with that hand.
I did not say in passing I am "risking just one pt". I said the most likely outcome by far will be just a 1 point score by either team. Anything else is a very low chance outcome. There's a difference.

jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:21 am

I'd say VERY high chance of losing 2 or 4 pts if u pass. Even if your partner calls(2).

raydog
Posts: 260
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:49 am

"Score matters, nothing else. At opps on 9, I call diamonds and lead my Kd. At all other scores neither my dreaming nor any greed will get the best of me. I pass. The most I am likely risking is one point."

This is an interesting concept. Here is a more detailed breakdown of what my simulator found as the probability distribution of different point outcomes:

1) call D, lead KD:
win 2 pts: 4.7%
win 1 pt: 46.0%
lose 2 pts: 49.3%
So you can expect to score at least a point 1/2 the time, and the blended EV is -0.43

2) pass:
win 4 pts: 0.7%
win 2 pts: 10.0%
win 1 pt: 9.8%
lose 1 pt: 53.7%
lose 2 pts: 20.7%
lose 4 pts: 5.1%
So indeed, the "most likely scenario" is that you lose 1 pt. But the blended EV is -0.83

One could say that losing 1 pt approximately half the time (passing scenario) is better than losing 2 pts approximately half the time (bidding scenario). That is a factual statement, and concurs with the results I found with my simulator. But it hides or neglects very ugly statics for the other half of the hands.

When bidding, the other half of the hands earn either 1 or 2 pts for your team (just a single point 90% of the time). The expected result is about +1.1

When passing, the other half of the hands earn your team a point or more just 44% of the time, but you lose 2 or 4 pts. 56% of the time. The expected result is -0.63 pts!

So for the favorable half of the hands, you lose just 1 pt rather than 2 pts. (a difference of 1 in your favor). But for the unfavorable half of the hands, you lose 0.63 pts rather than winning 1.1 pts (a difference of 1.73 against you).

So overall, it looks much better to bid D.

But is there a score scenario where it would be better to pass? One that jumps to mind is when the opponents have 8 pts. In that case, bidding D will result in a euchre 49.3% of the time - game over. But if I pass, I only lose 2+ pts 25.8% of the time. And I get the next deal (very favorable).

I have created a program which can calculate the "odds of winning the game", given the current score, the probable point distribution for the current hand, and the "random hand" point distribution probabilities for future hands [it takes into account the fact that neither team will bid alone with 8 or 9 pts]. So I tested a few scenarios.

Your team winning 9-8:
bid: win game 50.7% of the time (obvious)
pass: win game 56.5% of the time (the opponents win the game outright on the current hand just 25.8% of the time, and you have a 67.1% chance of securing a point as dealer on the next hand, so this makes sense)

Score tied 8-8:
bid: win game 38.3% of the time
pass: win game 37.7% of the time
There are a few more paths to victory (or loss) here, which is why using a program helps. It's close, but slightly better to take advantage of the overall point benefit of bidding.

Your team losing 7-8:
bid: win game 28.9% of the time
pass: win game 23.9% of the time
The further you are from victory, the more important it is to accumulate maximum points (on average) in the current hand. So gotta bid here.

Conclusion:
In my opinion, score CAN matter, but is rarely the most important consideration. With this particular hand, the EV story says that you should bid D, but there is one very particular score (winning 9-8) where it is better to pass.

Thank you, justme, for instigating this new line of investigation.

jblowery
Posts: 184
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:55 am

Thank u very much raydig. Another thoughtful response. Quick question. What is EV if u lead black (but still call D)?

raydog
Posts: 260
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:22 am

Ooops! I got ahead of myself, and never posted the initial results of my simulation.

S1 has KS + KH + K-QD + KC, (QH turned). All pass, R1. Bid or pass, R2?

[note that my program will never pass in S1, R2, with 2+ cards in next, unless they have all suits blocked]

I simulated 100,000 games, about 24,000 made it to R2.

bid D:
1) lead KS: EV = -0.44 [this is what my program does]
2) lead KH: EV = -0.55
3) lead KD: EV = -0.43

pass:
EV = -0.83

So generally better to bid. And leading a black K or trump seem to give similar results. As you posited, jblowery, a negative EV, but the better of two evils.
_____________________________

What if I have the AH rather than the KH?
1) lead KS: EV = -0.21
2) lead AH: EV = -0.22
3) lead KD: EV = -0.11
As you suspected, helping to ensure that AH wins seems to be the best play. It's a very short suit, and the opponents have shown weakness in it by passing.

What if I have the AS instead of the KS?
1) lead AS: EV = +0.14
2) lead KD: EV = +0.13
3) lead KC: EV = +0.04
As before, leading trump is best. But leading that singleton green A is an equally viable option (seems unlikely to get trumped, and you get to save your trump card - it balances out).

jblowery
Posts: 184
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Unread post by jblowery » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:19 pm

Thanks. Interesting that EV is about the same for leading trump vs black when you don't have an ace and I'm surprised that EV is about the same for leading green ace vs trump when yu have that ace. I always lead trump on offense in similar situations when I have off suite ace).

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Jan 20, 2023 5:00 pm

I'm not calling this at 8-8, possibly 7-7 but in all other situations Im calling diamonds and leading trump.

Tbolt65
Edward

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