What to lead after next call?

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raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

What to lead after next call?

Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:41 pm

You are in S1 holding JS + KH + QD + 10-9C (9S turned). Everyone passes, R1, and you call next (C), R2.
What card do you lead?

Bonus question: what are the odds that S3 holds the JC?



irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Jan 08, 2023 3:37 pm

Pretty easy question for me (assume all good players) lead trump 9 or 10C hoping the Right falls to set up your left as Best man. Reason being, all following suit to your lead only leaves one trump card. Turned down 9S - someone was loaded in spades and that would be S3. He could have had Spade triplet with or without the JS being one. Leading the KH is not a bad lead though, but really have to know your partner at S3 and the opponents. With this hand your partner has to win a trick to make your point.

As to part II where is the JC? I think 35% - 40% at S3, everything being equal,IMO. It's the Left in the turned down suit. Score and tendencies of Eldest is important here as well, i.e. S2/S4 might be bagging depending on score and if S1 always calling next. However, you can't bag unless you have em, and that is about 1/3 of the time opponents will have Next.

IRISH

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:07 pm

Granted, not so difficult for the expert players.

I found that leading the 9C here resulted in and EV of +0.23, vs. and EV of +0.09 if leading the QD, KH or 9C (remarkably similar for all three). And there is a 36% chance of S3 holding the R (28% for S2; 11% for S4; 25% buried). 37,131 hands make it to the 2nd round. These latter statistics are HUGELY dependent on how the other seats bid, so with only a quarter of hands making it to the 2nd round, there may be some disagreement here.

What I find remarkable is that if I replace the JS with the JC in S1's hand, I find completely different results: lead JC, EV = +0.66; lead 9C: EV = +0.47; lead QD or KH, EV = +0.54. 26,370 hands make it to round 2 [understandably lower, since S1 holds the L of the turned suit and not the R]; and S3 has a 45% chance of holding the R (JC).

I would have guessed that leading a low trump on the 1st trick would be best, often catching the L in S3's hand, and thus ensuring 2 tricks (with the R in my own hand). With 2 more trump in my hand, getting 3 tricks is surely not too hard.

Is my simulator somehow playing egregiously wrong? Or am I missing something? I'd appreciate any advice to explain this result. I've done a very quick look, but the hands are all over the map; I'm not sure what phenomenon I'm looking for.

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:31 pm

I will comment on the Next call with JS, you said, "I found that leading the 9C here resulted in and EV of +0.23, vs. and EV of +0.09 if leading the QD, KH or 9C (remarkably similar for all three). And there is a 36% chance of S3 holding the R (28% for S2; 11% for S4; 25% buried). 37,131 hands make it to the 2nd round. These latter statistics are HUGELY dependent on how the other seats bid, so with only a quarter of hands making it to the 2nd round, there may be some disagreement here."
Leading low 10C or 9C as touching so either but I like the 10C better to not letting opponents think you have the 9C. Anyway the EV is what I would predict and the right strategy. But 37,131 of 100,000 is far from a quarter making it to R2. I think if S3 wins the trick it is straight forward, simplistic as to how S1 should play.
I would expect leading the KH to be different from leading the QH. AH could be buried or with S3, should be a 6 or 7% better than QD. And I would expect EV to be .09 to .13 range, played correctly. But that might be nit-picking. No real issues that I see. Where the JC was I gave a range and your Simulator was at the low end of what I predicted. I think Hal is doing just fine!

S1 having the JC was not in the original post and I I had it that is exactly what I would play to trick 1, then the KH and what is played after that all Depends. If a Spade, let it ride as S3 has some spades and slough QD. Not too complicated that I see. Not sure what it means hands all over the place.

IRISH

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 10, 2023 10:23 am

Irish,
I get your point about leading the KH: much better chance of winning outright than the QD. I think if there is no difference in my results it's because a H is very likely to be led at some point in the hand, so if it's a winner, that will be realized. No harm in letting it happen organically and not forcing the issue (just a theory).

I also agree with your leading the 10C rather than the 9C - always best to keep the opponents guessing [similar to when S4 picks up a trump which is touching another trump, and plays the PICKED UP CARD rather than the touching card, so that the opponents don't know he has the other trump].

Here is where I am confused about the NEW hand (not in the original post): S1 holding J-10-9C. Here, you say would instinctively play the R (JC), despite S3 having a 45% chance of holding the L (JS), which you may draw out unnecessarily. And I indeed find this to be the correct lead. But in the posted hand, S1 has L-10-9C [the OTHER bower], with S3 having a 36% chance of holding the R (2nd bower). And in this instance, it is best to lead a low trump. That seems unintuitive to me, but clearly not to you. So what is your rationale for leading a low trump when you have the L (+2 low trump), but leading the R when you have the R (+2 low trump), when in both cases your partner has a very good chance of holding the other bower?

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Jan 10, 2023 1:58 pm

RAY, Very simple (with Left JS) in that 1) most important I am setting up my Left as Boss after the first treick; and 2) I don't have side Aces and if S3 wins the trick he may and I can slough KH or QD. If Opponents win the trick I play my hand from there depending on who won the trick and what was played.

Leading the Boss JC tho I want to lead and get two trumps from the Opponents. Occasionally, I will pull S3 Left but that is just the breaks. But look the Stock has the Left over ~25%, generally. When S3 has left 36% it will be guarded, guessing half of 35%. The two combined and especially true if S1 has a side Ace.
Old saying is lead low, S3 will be Strong but not Long! Leading 10C with having the JC is not a bad lead but Know your partner. With a good partner - he might have JS QC + 2 SPADES XX. Not enough to order that 9S.

IRISH

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:26 pm

OK, makes sense when you give the rationale. But I never would have come up with that myself. At least I'm happy my program makes better decisions than I do!

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