What do you lead?

Ask questions, discuss and debate your strategies, euchre polls and more
Post Reply
raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

What do you lead?

Unread post by raydog » Fri Jan 06, 2023 12:10 pm

You are in 1st seat with KS + A-10D + K-10H, 9S turned. S2 calls alone in S. What do you lead?



raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Fri Jan 06, 2023 12:16 pm

Ancillary question: does it matter if the turn card is the AS, or the JS.

And what if the off-suit K-10 is in C (next) rather than H? Would that change your answer?

Tbolt65
Posts: 824
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:53 pm

One of the rare times you lead the Ace here. Why? Because you want to save your doubleton King Hearts-10hearts for a potential stopper? Too much can go wrong by leading a King of hearts or 10 of hearts.

If you lead the 10 of hearts and if seat 2 just has the Jack or Queen of hearts and your partner has no trump. You give your opponent an easy trick. Or if you lead with the king of hearts and Seat two puts on the ace of hearts clears out rest of trump and last card is say queen or Jack of hearts your Ten of hearts is not strong enough. So essentially what your asking for by leading the King or 10 of hearts is that maybe or maybe not your partner might have trump and their trump might be high enough to take a trick with any of your heart leads.

You have a higher probability of stopping a Seat 2 loner attempt by leading the ace of diamonds. Because when or if your opponent has a solo low to middle heart or Ace - X heart doubleton. You will have the stopper every time if you save those two cards until the end. Yes there will be times that your partner will be able to trump in, being void in hearts when Opponent has that single or doubleton heart. But generally speaking Leading the Ace of the diamond suit better protects your hands for a far wider range scenario of possible holdings of you opponent going alone.

Now can one argue on leading the heart first? Sure but that's highly situational and gets into hand reading and card placement possibilities to determine or even risk that play. I know I have made that play many of times but since this has been discussed on this board before, I believe IrishWolf had made a strong case and advocating leading the Single Ace when having a K-x suited as well in hand. I have come to the conclusion as well that over all that it is indeed better the lead the single Ace of diamonds in this situation.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Jan 07, 2023 2:36 am

I will give comment on Ray's Post. I can't add to what Ed (T-bolt) posted and agree with what he would do.

HOWEVER, what's more teasing to me is Ray's 2nd Post, "Ancillary question: does it matter if the turn card is the AS, or the JS." Here I suggest only if JS is up would it make a slight difference depending on Score and Situation in that he probably does not have two clubs in next (he might wait on next). Are you way behind in score S2 better have an Iron Clad loner or be Quiet and let S4 make the call as you can get some cheap loners do this. Basically, AS and below makes no impact to S2 going alone.

And what if the off-suit K-10 is in C (next) rather than H? Would that change your answer?

Now to the 2nd part if S1 had AD 10D KC 10C KS and 9S turned. This leaves 5 unknown trumps JS JC AS QS 10S unknown You have to always project what S2 might have: JS JC QS / JS AS QS / JS JC 10S / JS JC AS / OR 4 of the 5. Best here to go after his trailer.

The facts are that the AD/10D will cover all diamonds and S2 will have to play his diamonds at some point.

You are vulnerable in Hearts as you have none and must depend without any hearts to signal to your partner that you cannot stop hearts. You need luck here but it a pretty good chance as there are 6 unknown hearts.

Now about the Clubs, would you lead Clubs or AD Let's drill down and have a look:

JC is a trump not a Club and those unknown remaining are AC, QC & 9C. I give the advantage to leading the KC and here is why:
1) KC covers either or both QC/9C;
2) if S2 has AC (28%) and a doubleton AC (14%); More likely to just have AC;
3) a KC lead gives S3 a chance to trump his AC if he has a void and a trump. The calculation (28% x 65% = 22.8%) S3 can stop his AC;
4) if S2 & S3 both have a void in Clubs, S3 might be able to over trump;
5) since S1 plays after S3 when S2 gets the lead, you might squeeze your partner if he held the AC/AH or AC/KH dbltn by playing the AD first. S3 will not know what S1 is saving until after he plays on trick 4. Leading KC eliminates this option.

If you hold the AD, you will not get a chance to stop S2's AC. Only get a the chance to stop his AC doubleton (14%) or QC/9C trailer. It's the AC you get a chance to stop it by leading the KC on trick 1 and not on the 5th trick.

For the reasons outlined above, I suggest you have a higher chance at a stopping this loner by leading KC and holding your AD. That leaves S3 to stop hearts and neither lead can something about that. Leading the AD is not a bad lead but IMO that KC is a better lead here. For me 3 clubs AC high changes things enough and is not contradictory to what Ed outlined above. You have to factor in who is that S2 player. The more conservative a greater chance his trailer is an Ace. So knowing those tendencies is important.

IRISH

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:43 am

I will make one comment on, "If you lead the 10 of hearts and if seat 2 just has the Jack or Queen of hearts . . . " This is true! So not an option.
But suppose S2 had AH/QH or JH, I must use my AH. I cannot bet the farm on S3 not having the KH. So it will in most cases for S2 to use his AH. But that is really not the issue. Doing that now you squeeze yourself on trick 4 because you have the KC/AD. So not a good option!

Leading the KH here might be a better lead to the first trick doing that because what if S2 had the QH or JH and S3 had the 9H? You might get lucky and S3 has a void hearts (23.4%) with a trump of 2 or 3, depending on if S2 had 3 or 4. So that chance is reduced to 12 to 15% chance. Not great!

But to this original post, in agreement with ED - LEAD THE AD!

The other thing, the whole strategy of leading your only Ace from S1 when you have Ace + King dbltn was for when the Dealer is going alone. The Dealer is far more likely to have a Doubleton Ace going alone and it catches all below the King. You are treating the King dbltn like it is a second Ace.

It's a twist and slightly different when S2 is going alone. If you have 2 in Next or 3 of an off a green suit with an off suit Ace - lead the from the triplet when S2 goes alone and leading next from a doubleton - ALL DEPENDS!

IRISH

meppii
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:04 am

Unread post by meppii » Sat Jan 07, 2023 6:22 pm

Hello,
Great post. I totally agree with leading the ACE D. Albeit, only by reading Tbolt65 reasoning, did I come to this conclusion. Another stressor for S2 is having to use a big trump or risk being over-trumped for the first trick. Before I read this post, I would never have led my only off-suit ACE, but now I see the wisdom in this rare exception. Thanks again,
mepii

Ps. In the past I would have led the KH... but no longer will that be the case...

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:37 pm

With my simulator I got the following results:

S1 holds KS + A-10D + K-10H (9S turned); 100,000 hands played
lead KH: EV = +1.99 [from perspective of S2]
lead AD: EV = +1.68
3,605 games count; AD lead better

S1 holds KS + A-10D + K-10H (AS turned); 100,000 hands played
lead KH: EV = +2.10 [from perspective of S2]
lead AD: EV = +1.71
3,083 games count; AD lead better

S1 holds KS + A-10D + K-10H (JS turned); 100,000 hands played
lead KH: EV = +2.58 [from perspective of S2]
lead AD: EV = +2.09
1,606 games count; AD lead better
_____________________

S1 holds KS + A-10D + K-10C (9S turned); 100,000 hands played
lead KH: EV = +1.91 [from perspective of S2]
lead AD: EV = +1.79
AD lead better

S1 holds KS + A-10D + K-10C (AS turned); 100,000 hands played
lead KH: EV = +1.99 [from perspective of S2]
lead AD: EV = +1.88
AD lead better

S1 holds KS + A-10D + K-10C (JS turned); 100,000 hands played
lead KH: EV = +2.11 [from perspective of S2]
lead AD: EV = +2.05
AD lead better

So in every case I found that leading the AD was better. The way I reason it is this: if my partner in S3 has the AH + AC, then I potentially squeeze him if I lead the AD and on the 4th trick if he has to discard one (but he still has a 50:50 chance of guessing right). But, if S2 has 2 hearts, then I ruin my chance at stopping the lone if I lead a H. So which scenario is more likely?

I did a tally for the original hand.
3,614 hands counted (out of 100,000); S2 had 2 hearts in 273 hands; S3 had AC + AH in 157 hands.
So it makes sense to be more worried about S2 having A-xH than about partner holding 2 aces.

As for the 2nd set of 3 hands (where S1 holds the K-10C rather than the K-10H), the advantage of leading the AD reduces appreciably (because the odds of S2 holding 2 cards in this shorter clubs suit are lower), but it is still ultimately a bit better to lead the AD.

Heuristics in euchre are helpful (like "only lead an A when defending against a lone when you have 2+ aces"), but understanding when to make an exception to the rule makes you an even better player.
Last edited by raydog on Sun Jan 08, 2023 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Jan 08, 2023 4:12 pm

Ray,

Typo?

I am confused on the last Posted results as the Original post was with S1 having the KS not the AS? How did you run your results with KS or AS? Makes a difference for S2 going alone.

And fix your typo when S1 holds KC/10C (NOT KH)!

INTERESTING but you see does get close enough to wonder? One question that could make a difference is when S2 (KC/10C - KC led) is void in Clubs does he trump high or low? Most players make a mistake and trump low giving S3 opportunity to over trump. Just wondering?

IRISH

raydog
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:04 pm

Sorry, I fixed the typo regarding the AS (should have been KS - that is what I tested with).

I don't see the second typo - K-10C rather than K-10H. That's what I meant to write.

As for S1 leading the KC and S2 being void, S2 would play their 2nd highest trump.

irishwolf
Posts: 1321
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Jan 08, 2023 7:04 pm

Thanks!

Post Reply