Would you call this?

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sdu754
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Would you call this?

Unread post by sdu754 » Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:05 pm

You are in the first seat with the following cards: Q-10-9 of Hearts. The up-card is the Jack of Hearts.
Do you order up the Jack or do you pass?



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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Fri Dec 02, 2022 12:10 pm

Only if I was holding the two black aces as my other cards. I would start by leading trump in hopes that would force the dealer to play the right.

With lesser holding, I would pass. But here again, I would lead trump.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 02, 2022 2:05 pm

NEVER, especially with any two aces.

You have left out very important information - other two cards, the score, knowledge about your partner and the Dealer, etc. Incomplete information so I can assume anything I want.

IRISH

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 7:08 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Fri Dec 02, 2022 2:05 pm
NEVER, especially with any two aces.

You have left out very important information - other two cards, the score, knowledge about your partner and the Dealer, etc. Incomplete information so I can assume anything I want.

IRISH
Score is zero-zero in a random online game, so you have no info on the other players.

What would the offsuit be for you to call it or would you pass with any offsuit at all?

I have seen you do mathematical analyzation of hands, could you do this one with say the two black aces. Two suited with A-K of clubs. three suited no aces and get back to me?

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 02, 2022 11:18 pm

You laid this out as two scenarios and not knowing the critical seat, the Dealer. But I will give you my analysis, opinion that is:

1) (Card_J-H) UPCARD: S1 holds (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) + (Card_A-C) / (Card_K-C) , Assuming the Dealer is a good player Known facts are that there are 3 unknown trump cards, AND all bigger than what you hold.
a. Statistically, dealer has one trump is 47.8% dealer has one trump, dealer has 2 is 15.9%, and 3 trumps + up card is 1.2. He has no trump is 35%. Minus the upcard it the same for S2 & S3 for trump cards.

b.Opponents can have trumps as 1 & 1 (but dealer has 2) basically 25% of the time. Not a big deal if you lead trump leaving the dealer with one trump. And that is a MUST to the first trick. Or S2 has 2 and Dealer has 2 which is 16% x 48% = ~8%. That 8% is almost 100% euchre time. If the dealer has two + JH (16%) that to is 100% euchre time. Now allow for dealer to have 3 + JH = 1%. Additive is (8 + 16 +1) 25% euchre rate. The breakeven point with the hand is 36% euchre rate so you will have a positive EV 75 - 50 = + 0.25. This assumes worst case that your partner does not have two trumps (but he will 16%).

c. Since you have nothing to call in next and no Spades, okay to order. Same with two aces of any off suit.

d. Now return to the Dealer possibly ordering the JH. A really good player will order with 1 trump - 48% (has 1, probably an Ace). And you will not euchre him with any other holdings than JH + 1.
Doubtful he would just pick up a Naked bower, some might but basically not a good decision, depends on S2 passing with 2 trumps.
So dealer makes his point 52% of the time and you euchre him 48% (if he holds 1 trump +JH.. That is 96 points for you. Minus the points he makes. Estimating that: 52 But have to allow for him sweeping perhaps (a guesstimate) 14% ( 28 + 38 = 66 points for the Dealer side). So approximately in this scenario: EV = (96 - 66) = +0.30. So you are ahead by NOT ordering IF the Dealer makes trump. This why it so important to know the Dealer's style. R2 is also a negative - probably greater than +30 for your opponents.

Suppose the Dealer does order. What do you lead now? Still, I would lead trump to take S2 out of play and dealer has to spend a trump. Then keep pushing those clubs on subsequent tricks.

That basically about it for that holding A/K off suit.

You will be playing with fire with two off suits no ACE. Even if your partner has one Ace and opponents have the other ace that is all about getting euchred. If your partner had Left guarded or any two trumps - 16%, you can make point. But compare that with 84% you won't. Just a bad decision when Dealer will picking up the JH with two bad suit cards (no Ace). You can't better you EV by calling. No sense in going further here. Even with a King dblt off suit that euchre rate will exceed 50%.

Now Ray could do a Simulation with a more accurate EV, but but I think I am pretty close.

I hope that is helpful?

IRISH
Last edited by irishwolf on Sat Dec 03, 2022 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Dec 02, 2022 11:39 pm

Okay sdu574, let's consider something else with your hand (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) + two off suit cards of any suit, no ACE. Should you consider ordering as a defensive move because you have nothing to call on R2?

I say no do not call as that is a euchre rate so high. If all pass and you pass R2 what the chance for a loner? S2 has a low enough loner rate or making a sweep. A sweep is the same as getting euchred. If that euchre rate is over 50 do you think sweeps would be 50%? I say no way and a loner rate of 10 - 12% will not exceed the points you give up for all those euchres ordering with two off suit losers. Of course you are depending on your partner to stop some sweeps. Sweeps are hard to get - 16% statistically, loners 6 to 8%.

There are some that would disagree but so be it and not at 0 to 0. 9 to 6 is different story.

Something to chew on!

IRISH

P.S. That hand of Q, 10, 9 A/K - has already been thoroughly analyzed at S3 for ordering, just in reverse here so I know the answer.

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:40 pm

So the point you are making is that you will only call this if you have high enough offsuit that your opponent has to trump it in order to beat it.

There are some issues with your math though. As far as getting Euchred if you call it would happen if:

Seat Two has three Trump 1%, Seat Four has three Trump plus the Right 1%, Seat Four has two Trump plus the Right 16%, Seat Two has two Trump and Seat Four has one Trump plus the Right 8%
That would be 26% which would make the equation 74-52=22

Assuming that seat Four never calls without trump (they would occasionally) and Seat Two and Seat Three only call with three Trump (They would with Left-Ace-King) the math for passing would be as follows:

Seat Two has three Trump 1%, Seat Four has three Trump plus the Right 1%, Seat Four has two Trump plus the Right 16%, Seat Two has two Trump and Seat Four has one Trump plus the Right 8%.

That would be a success rate of 26% while calling 66% of the time. Your partner would also call 1% of the time. This would leave 33% of the time where it passes to a second round, but this wouldn't always happen.

Now your opponent could score 2 or 4 points for a sweep, so we need to consider the odds of this. If your opponent has Three Trump (either the Dealer or his partner) They should go alone which equates to 18% of the time. If they go alone, you will lead the Ace of Clubs. If they have a club, they are stopped. If they only have Three Trump including the Bower, they will have to Trump the ace to take it, leaving only two Trump in their hand versus your three, once again, they are stopped. If the Dealer has four Trump (1% chance), they will still only make it about half of the time. If they have a Club for their final card (4 out of 15) 27% chance, they are stopped. If they have a Diamond or Spade, your partner has a 50% chance of having the right suit on the last trick (he will know to throw away all of his Clubs) and within that chance, a 50% chance his last card is higher than the dealers giving a 25% chance. That means a loner would only be successful 50% of the time, meaning your opponent would score 2.5 points the 1% of the time that the dealer has the last four Trump.

If your opponents have two trump each counting the Right Bower (8% of hands), they aren't going alone and you are leading a Trump, which would leave the distribution to one for each of them and two for you. They would have to take out both of your Trump independently with their Trump and then take the two remaining offsuit tricks with their remaining non-Trump cards. You have an offsuit ace and your partner is there to help. The chances of them pulling all five tricks would be really small, but let's say 1 in 8.

In 100 hands there would be a 40 Euchres (80 points) plus 1 point where your partner calls (81) versus
26 made calls plus a bonus point for the March on the two-plus-two and 1.5 points for the made loner. That would be 81-28.5=52.5 So passing will actually yield far more points than calling, and this is assuming no calls when the dealer would have the bare Right, either by him or his partner.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Dec 03, 2022 3:39 pm

YOU SAID, If your opponents have two trump each counting the Right Bower (8% of hands), they aren't going alone and you are leading a Trump, which would leave the distribution to one for each of them and two for you.

They took your your first trump and now each has a bigger trump than either of your two little ones. Either trumps the next trick and they still have another trump bigger than either of yours. Spells E U C H R E.

I am not spending for time on this to refute your comments.

DO AS YOU MAY.

sdu754
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Unread post by sdu754 » Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:16 am

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Dec 03, 2022 3:39 pm
YOU SAID, If your opponents have two trump each counting the Right Bower (8% of hands), they aren't going alone and you are leading a Trump, which would leave the distribution to one for each of them and two for you.

They took your your first trump and now each has a bigger trump than either of your two little ones. Either trumps the next trick and they still have another trump bigger than either of yours. Spells E U C H R E.

I am not spending for time on this to refute your comments.

DO AS YOU MAY.
I was saying the same as you on this one. If the opponents have two Trump each (counting the ordered Right) they likely take three tricks. This means if the holder of Q-10-9 orders, they get euchred. If the opponents call, they win t heir point. I think you were somehow confused here.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:48 pm

I had a look at this one. And, as Irish says, it's very dependent on how the opponents play.

My program currently has the following stipulations:
1) if S1 has 3 or less trump and the R is turned, pass;
2) if S4 has R+1 trump, call (may call alone with certain hands);
3) S4 never calls with just the R;
4) also, my program doesn't consider the score, which could influence the above decisions in certain instances [so consider neutral score of 0-0].

These are slight simplifications, but important to know. IF you have info on your opponents (will S4 actually call all R+1 hands??), that needs to be considered, and reduces the validity of my simulation.

Even without a simulating this hand, here is my "back-of-the-envelope" analysis:
1) S4 has a 40% chance of having the lone R [IMPORTANT NOTE: this is the unconditional chance; given that S2 or S3 will call with a very good hand (including lots of trump), the CONDITIONAL odds that S4 has the lone R (no other trump) if the decision makes it to them is a bit lower];
2) so S4 has a 60%+ chance of having R+1. Which means, probably, 2 sure tricks for them. Is that the kind of hand you want to call? Euchring S4 when they call with R+1 nets 2 pts.; calling the same nets 1 pt. (or 1 pt for them). I think the odds here favor hoping S4 calls, and getting the euchre.

I say pass.

I ran a few simulations, just to see the results.

1) S1 has Q-10-9S + AH + AD (JS turned):
call: EV = +0.16 [for S1/S3]
pass: EV = +0.14
This is too close to call. Also, I can't present the detailed results. When S1 passes, there are too many combinations of possible outcomes, I can't delve into that.

2) S1 has Q-10-9S + A-KH (JS turned):
call: EV = +0.07
pass: EV = -0.05
Here I find it better to call. This falls under the "simplification" category: a few very specific hands warrant a call (but is it worth programming them in?)\

3) S1 has Q-10-9S + A-KC (JS turned):
call: EV = +0.11
pass: EV = +0.27
Same scenario as #2, but the off-suit is next. Here, better to pass.

4) S1 has Q-10-9S + A-QH:
call: EV = -0.10
pass: EV = -0.17
The marginal benefit of calling has decreased, but is still a bit positive (having A-Q rather than A-K off-suit).

5) S1 has Q-10-9S + AH + AC:
call: EV = +0.17
pass: EV = +0.12
Here it is once again slightly better to call [with a next Ace], but the difference is small.

Bottom line: pass this hand, in my opinion. My simulator is not perfect, and I have included simplifications to aid in programming, so there may be very specific instances where calling is the better move. But if you are the type of person who, like me, who finds it easier to memorize 100 different plays rather than 100,000, put this in the "pass" category. And know that, under certain circumstances [i.e., very strong off-suit, conservative player in S4, behind 5-9 in score], it may well be worth calling.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:14 am

No surprise Ray! Good job and i concur 100%!

IRISH

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:38 am

RAY,

One question I have, give S1: (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-D) with (Card_J-H) upcard,

What are the EV for S2/S4 on R1?

Then ALL pass and S1 passes EV for S2/S4 vs S1 call next lead trump EV S1/S3?

Then what if S1 (basically a soft defensive donate) orders R1, the EV?

I actually suspect with nothing to call, still better to Pass for S1.



IRISH

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:58 pm

A lot to unwrap here, but I think I know what you want. This is why simulations are difficult - you have to zero in on the crux of the situation. This may take a few iterations.

To start, I ran a simulation of 100,000 hands, fixing S1's hand as Q-10-9H + 10D + QC (turn card JH), with S1 either passing or calling:

S1 passes:
S2,R1: (103 / 874 / 62 // 262 / 754 / 0)
S3, R1: (never calls with R turned)
S4, R1: 3,831 / 15,644 / 958 // 625 / 35,844 / 7,640)

S1, R2: (never calls)
S2, R2: (3,212 / 3,638 / 304 // 6,115 / 12,488 / 2,298)
S3, R2: (177 / 630 / 98 // 95 / 1,676 / 1,981)
S4, R2: (116 / 61 / 3 // 127 / 337 / 47)

S1 calls wp:
(0 / 0 / 0 // 0 / 28,830 / 71,170)

EV for S1 passing [from the perspective of S1]: -0.91
EV for S1 calling: -1.14

[scores are (sweep alone / 1pt alone / euchred alone // sweep wp / 1 pt wp / euchred wp)]

So better for S1 to pass (depending on score!)

Let's say it everyone passes, R1. Currently, my program has S1 passing, R2. But what if they call?

S1 passes, R2: EV = -1.13
S2, R2: (3,169 / 3,639 / 321// 6,056 / 12,430 / 2,346)
S3, R2: (2186 / 603 / 92 // 77 / 1,634 / 2,062)
S4, R2: (141 / 76 / 2 // 107 / 301 / 49)

S1 call, R2: EV = -1.01 [S1 calls D]
(0 / 0 / 0 // 958 / 9,638 / 22,695)

So actually better for S1 to call D, R2 - terrible EV, but better than if pass!

It looks like your "soft call" option is valid, but for R2, not R1.

Maybe you can glean the info you were looking for from the data I presented. If not, it would be too hard a slog to delve into all the considerations of when the other seats call or pass. I have written you a personal email to address this issue further.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:42 pm

Yes, just the info I wanted.
And one can generalize other hands from S1 as what to do at various scores/situations. S4 passes, you are forced to call next. Turn down a (JH) bower, S3 most likely will have JD in next. But he has to win three (3) tricks. Tough to do. EV shows it!

IRISH

jblowery
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Unread post by jblowery » Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:14 pm

I'd pass and call my other suite if I have 2 of the same but otherwise I'm passing round 2 also. I never call next if I don't have any and rarely if I just have 1.

I bet my EV is better if I pass r2 than if I call D.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Tue Jan 03, 2023 12:05 am

I would have passed. I'm not giving my reasons because anything I say now is after the fact and could be construed as confirmation bias.

I will say this. Euchre is so dependent on the "situation" that any omission can change the decision-making process dramatically. Euchre is a simple game at face value but the intricacies that lies within it can make it a much more complex game.


Tbolt65
Edward

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