What's the lead here?

[Catch10110]

This came up on another board and i'm honestly not sure i've seen this one discussed. Looking for additional feedback.

Score 0-0.

The dealer has picked up the .

You sit in first seat holding

What's the correct lead?

Basically, are you leading an ace (or K even) from a long green suit to make sure you pull one trump? The singleton offsuit (even though it's next/junk)? Or maybe even throw trump to clear space for that Ace?

[irishwolf]

That's a tough one. Only 3 diamonds out and the chance the Dealer has two is 16%, slim. And that S2 & S3 had diamonds is only about 8% - 10%. So leading the AD, it is going to get trumped. Most likely the Dealer will win the trick and lead trump and your QS is useless. Got to have a better chance of making it worth Something. That is why I don't like leading the AD as also gets S2 into the action to use his only one trump. It only helps if S3 has the Left unguarded.

Save the AD and if the dealer has a Diamond doubleton you still get your cake & eat it too!

In this situation would lead the 10C club. Mainly for the purpose that if S3 wins the club trick you (S1) gets a chance to use his QS on a Heart or a Club squeeze.

Just me!

IRISH

[sdu754]

I say you lead the Ace of diamonds and hope for the best. I know the likelihood is high that it gets trumped, but you really don't have any other good lead.

[Richardb02]

I reviewed the OE lesson, "What to Lead."
I gleaned from the review, first, don't lead from a 3 carded suit. You are likely to get trumped.

Secondly, I (DLAN) have found, in a hand with no power, the best lead is the lowest card of your shortest suit.

I use the following guideline, if you have power, play power. If you have strength, play strength. Note AKTd is not power. It is likely to be trumped.

As with any guideline, there are exceptions. I don't see any exceptions in the hand as described. So, I would play the Tc. Irish agrees. OE lessons agree. I'm in good company.

[Catch10110]

Thanks for the responses -

Several people are arguing that leading the ace is not with the idea that it will go through - but specifically because it does require the opponents to trump in to take the trick. Personally i do not agree, but that is the crux of the disagreement.

[raydog]

I simulated this hand and got interesting results:

I fixed S1's hand and the turn card, and only considered hands where S4 bid S with partner (26,230 hands of 100,000).

lead 10C: (3,784 / 16,481 / 5,865) [sweep / 1 pt. / euchred] EV = +0.47
lead AD: (3,382 / 16,970 / 5,778) EV = +0.47
lead QS: (6,182 / 16,376 / 3,572) EV = + 0.83
(all these results from the perspective of S4)

So I essentially found it's virtually a toss-up between leading the 10C and the AD. Lot's of competing scenarios, and they seem to balance out. I had a look at a few hands where my simulator found different results for the two leads (one or the other being better) and it seemed to be playing the hands correctly. Here are a couple of examples:

S2: 10-9H + A-K-9C
S3: A-10H + JD + Q-JC
S4: A-9S + K-JH + 10D (discard 10D)
S2/S4 score a pt. if 10C led, get euchred if AD led

S2: JS + 10H + Q-JD + KC
S3: K-QH + A-J-9C
S4: A-9S + JH + 10D + QC (discard 10D)
S2/S4 get euchred if 10C led, score a pt. if AD led

[Catch10110]

So I essentially found it's virtually a toss-up between leading the 10C and the AD.

Thanks for running this! Kind of cool to see that both arguments basically had equal merit. It felt very much like a 50/50 split in the arguments for each of the two types of leads. (I don't recall anyone arguing to lead trump).

Appreciate the effort!