Two trump two suited hands

[Mxx]

Hi All,

I have been thinking about this one and appreciate your opinions.

1. Do you call this hand as the dealer (in the first round)?

Up card:



I tend to call this hand mainly because S1 has a decent chance of 2 points in next. But I am euchred often enough, so not sure if it's a winning play overall.

2. Assume you call and manage to trump in to win the first trick. Do you lead out the AC or the AD?

My gut says lead the trump, but my experience is the AD works better. The hand seems to play out a bit like a three trump, two suited hand.

3. Any interesting variations on the two trump two suited call from dealer, that makes you change your play?

[irishwolf]

My answer is YES a Must order you block nothing in Next. I see that hand as winning two trick but you definitely need a 3rd from your partner. If the dealer passes, you have two off suit aces with a high probability of S1 having a in Next or Hearts. So if you do get euchred - I say you most likely are only giving them 1 point at any score.

Just how I would play it! What would be interesting is what Ray's simulator would say played both ways? You do have two aces to stop a march.

IRISH

P.S.
I will add one more thing (with confidence) that your EV of the dealer will be positive calling clubs. I suspect a euchre rate of 28 to 33% depending on how played. 33% is the breakeven point for this hand. That says make a point (no sweeps unless S2 very conservative or bagged on you) 67 to 72% of the time. Statistically, you can expect no help from your partner around 22% (no trump & no ace). But if you pass your can expect a Neg. EV.

[Mxx]

Irish, do you still call this hand with two small trump instead of the AC - QC?

Do you still lead the off ace instead of the second trump?

[irishwolf]

For me, I would still call if that were 9C QC. Your euchre rate will go up, maybe 5% on the average and right at the breakeven point. Pass and EV will be Neg far exceeding ordering, IMO.

You partner had he passed might have Unguarded Left, the Right, etc. Too weak to call so I am not leading trump. Lead the AD if you won the first trick. If your AD gets trumped - opponent will lead Spade or Heart. Now you can either trump or slough depending on S3 or S1's lead.

You lead trump, basically you are done. You might get lucky tho if S2 had the Right and an Ace if you did lead. Chances are he has one trump and maybe an ace. You have to give all the options available to you for your partner to win his trick.

You have energized me to test that weakest hand AD 10D 9D 9C QC. Or even KD 10D 9D WEAKER YET vs Passing. That will take me awhile, so stay tuned.

IRISH

[Mxx]

You lead trump, basically you are done. You might get lucky tho if S2 had the Right and an Ace if you did lead. Chances are he has one trump and maybe an ace. You have to give all the options available to you for your partner to win his trick.

Your logic sounds fine but I'm still hanging on to the possibility of the trump lead being better! If I lead the second trump, I make my partner's aces good, and maybe even my own off suit Ace. You can hit your partner's right (as you noted) and S1 will often play low if they have the right, making your partner's possible left good.

As I said in the original post, I think the offsuit Ace being played on the second trick is actually better, but I really want to play that trump!

[irishwolf]

Play the hand as you may, I think that's a kamikaze lead!

As to testing those weaker hands, I see no need even though having AD & AC will block some sweeps, I still say you will get Slammed in Next & Hearts making this a a bid hand. (read below):

I don't have to test the weakest hand, IMO. Ray tested a similar weaker hand than your QC AC AD 10D 9D. Notice tho in this hand you have a decent Block against next giving this hand a real plus for pass and it still turned out you should BID clubs on those hands reaching the Dealer.

That means if upcard and hold (discard 9H)- BID CLUBS. Your EV will be much better than Passing.
Use this as your guide, quoting from Ray's dated Posts on OE!

raydog wrote: ↑
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm



bid: EV = -0.87 (NOTE A TIE BUT HAVING AD IS MUCH BETTER CARD)
pass = -0.88
5,473 hands make it to dealer
Pretty much a toss-up here. 40% less successful loners by S1R2
I think it's pretty amazing that this crappy hand reaches an indifference point.

raydog wrote: ↑
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm



bid: EV = -0.71
pass: EV = -0.79
5,615 hands make it to dealer
Better to bid.

And if that is not enough for you try this on for size:

raydog wrote: ↑
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:31 pm
I assumed 9C as turn card, 9H discarded by dealer (or left in dealer's hand if passes!)



Ran 10,000 for each scenario (except one, noted below).

[from previous series]
bid: EV = -1.01
pass: EV = -1.15
5,755 hands make it to dealer
If dealer passes, S1 calls alone more than 1/3 of the time in R2, and makes almost 1/2 of them!

NOTE: Thanks to Ray for running these hands on his Simulator.

IRISH

[jblowery]

I'd really like to see the EV on this. If you pass, that AC is an automatic off suite ace and so is the AD most likely (albeit a weak one). Better defense than the examples shown.

[Catch10110]

bid: EV = -0.71
pass: EV = -0.79

It's always fun trying to expain why you made a call like this to your partner.

"Look, i know i keep getting set, but over 100 opportunities like this, i will lose 8 fewer points by continuting to make this call."

[irishwolf]

Catch10110,

You got it, exactly! This is almost parity but look at the cards of what you cited compared to the original post. And the other examples. 99% of the euchre players will get this wrong!

P.S. I sent you a Private message, check it out.

IRISH

[jblowery]

Is there an EV available for the original hand that was posted (passing vs. picking up)? I see it as different than having all low cards. The two aces provide a better defense if you pass than having 9s, 10s and a Q.

[irishwolf]

So you are suggesting it better to Pass and Defend a R2 call vs bidding R1? If so based on what? There are 5 unknown hearts and 6 unknown spades! What might S1 call in R2? As presented - S1,S2&S3 all passed - what does that mean? So now you are presented with a attempt to score a point vs being euchred, vs what S1 will do in R2 with the various EVs! Intuitively obvious!

Don't think a EV is available for the original post. Can you not predict a EV for the hand based on those other hands/EVs?

IRISH

[jspectre]

I think we need a specific EV for this hand as well, two aces has to give us good odds of getting at least one.

[irishwolf]

...two aces has to give us good odds of getting at least one." That as it may, Winning a trick on Defense is not scoring points!

Guaranteed, better EV bidding than Passing!

IRISH

[jblowery]

Not saying your wrong Irish. Just saying I'm not convinced yet, simply because you say it is a better move. Particularly if you already have 2 aces instead of picking up an ace. Either way, I'm sure it's closer than when you have all low cards