When you turn up the perfect hand to turn down a jack

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XaviRonaldo
Posts: 68
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

When you turn up the perfect hand to turn down a jack

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:09 pm

Just turned up as dealer the (Card_J-D)

Holding

(Card_A-H) (Card_J-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_J-C)

Absolutely no reason to pick this up IMO. Only slightly lower value if hearts is called with a very good chance of a euchre and if it is passed around you have a potential loner.



irishwolf
Posts: 1273
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:26 pm

UPDATED AFTER FURTHER REVIEW OF HANDS DEALT AND PLAYED! I don't want to leave this in question, IMO.

Yes a euchre hand for sure. I did 150 hands played both ways, looking at the Diamonds loner hand vs Passing. And the probability of S1 calling next is high was not very good with the three highest trumps out. However, the euchre for 2 points (no guarantee) if he has 3 hearts, & diamonds (or AC) no euchre would result. Crossing suit with 3 clubs and Diamonds off suit is very tempting to Call. If S1 does not call hearts or clubs, a very good chance of coming back the Dealer.

It would still be interesting what Ray's simulator had to say about S1 and a Next call? Not only that what about If the Dealer went alone in Diamonds? You have a great chance IF hearts or spades is led to the first trick. I suspect S4 will NOT score more points if the Dealer went alone in Diamonds vs Passing! What is that chance it gets back to calling Spades r - 33%, 50% or 70%. Probably quite high and this all depends on how aggressive the players are? The chance of stopping the loner off suit S4 has is about equal. But also consider that there is a higher chance of opponents having 2 or 3 trumps in Diamonds with the Jack up than Spades if it gets back to S4. Is it wise to pass - I conclude YES? And it's the euchres for 2 pts that gives an advantage to Passing vs only getting one point in Diamonds. If the decision does get back that rate of successful loner rate should be about 60% - 65%.

BTW, I will make a estimate better to Pass here for total points and EV. It is not a bad decision to go with Diamonds as the euchre will be low for S4. What tills the scales to Passing is that if the Dealer goes alone in Diamonds he only has both Jacks as trumps. A Club lead kills the loner attempt. Thus, after doing some hands myself, Passing is better over going alone in Diamonds.

To make smart decisions one has to look a the probabilities of ALL the issues at hand (what the score, who is playing, etc. etc.) You must weigh is making a loner in Diamonds (about 55% chance from my view) better than Euchring S1/S3 for 2 points or S2 calling? Consider that your partner may call Clubs or Spades with little or nothing spoiling your chance of a Spade loner! So it's not just a simple decision.

IRISH

raydog
Posts: 238
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:56 pm

Unread post by raydog » Tue Sep 06, 2022 12:43 pm

I simulated this hand. Ran 100,000 iterations, fixing just S4's hand + the turn.

I first just noted how the first 3 seats fared if they bid (this was a separate run of 100,000 hands - easier to separate this out in order to get an accurate EV for the next run).

S1 calls: (0 / 6 / 0 // 0 / 166 / 565) [sweep lone / 1 pt lone / euchred lone // sweep wp / 1 pt wp / euchred wp]
S2 calls: (82 / 13 / 0 // 8,974 / 974 / 0)
S3 calls: (o / 52 / 2 // 0 / 206 / 516)

I show this just to give an idea of how my program bids from the other seats - how aggressive they are, and how they fare against a monster hand in S4 (unknown to them!)

Then I compared bidding alone in D from S4 (what my program does) or passing and bidding alone in S, R2, should S4 have the chance to do so:

Alone in D, R1: (33,016 / 49,550 / 6,148 // 0 / 0 / 0)
EV = 1.91 [88,714 hands bid of 100,000]

pass:
S1: (0 / 667 / 368 // 0 / 3,858 / 34,916)
S2: (461 / 294 / 0 // 15,326 // 4,385 / 9)
S3: (0 / 23 / 0 // 0 / 1,552 / 10,146)
S4: (13,611 / 3,089 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0)
EV = 2.02

If S4 bids in round 1, they should do so alone, and achieve an EV or 1.91 [I didn't bother to see check the results if they bid wp - this is barely beatable].

But if S4 passes, and waits to euchre the opponents or bid R2, the EV is a bit better: 2.02 S4 will get to bid alone in S, R2, about 1/6th of the time, with a successful loner rate of over 80% in those instances.

Note that S2 bids a lot of hands, R2 - they simply don't know that their partner has a monster hand, so I think it's reasonable that they get in there and show their strength.

These results depend a lot on how the other seats bid, as Irish mentioned. But I think the end results are clear and reasonable, and in line with what XaviRonaldo predicted.

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