Order to right with one other trump or to left with 2 other trump?

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crispy
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Order to right with one other trump or to left with 2 other trump?

Unread post by crispy » Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:35 am

I have Jh Kh Qd Td and 9s. 1st seat and spades turned down. Do I order hearts, where I have right and king (and lead the Td), or diamonds, where I have left, queen, and 10 (and I have no idea what to lead). Or maybe you pass, leaving 2nd seat to hopefully gamble on a green call.

What about if you are not in first seat? Are there some situations where you go with hearts and some with diamonds? What other minor changes in this hand might change your mind on what to call? For example, if you are leaning hearts, replace the Kh with Ah. Now diamonds has a side ace.



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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:21 am

Assuming you're in first, keep in mind that crossing suits are always risky. Expect very little help from your partner. That said, give your partner every chance to help. I would suggest calling diamonds because you have 3 and then lead the 9s. Use your trump only to cut in with. Don't try to pull trump.

I'd be more likely to pass if the opponents were at 8 points.

justme
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Unread post by justme » Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:14 pm

Dlan wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:21 am
Assuming you're in first, keep in mind that crossing suits are always risky. Expect very little help from your partner. That said, give your partner every chance to help. I would suggest calling diamonds because you have 3 and then lead the 9s. Use your trump only to cut in with. Don't try to pull trump.

I'd be more likely to pass if the opponents were at 8 points.

Recently, in the "What to Lead" thread, the question of "never do" and "never do, with exceptions" was brought up and the following Ohioeuchre recommendation was mentioned:
https://ohioeuchre.com/E_What-card-should-I-lead.php says: "You should also never lead the suit that was turned down." but nobody gave an exception.

I agree crossing suit with the hand Crispy laid out is risky and won't have a big positive return, but I'll agree making diamonds trump here is better than making it hearts or passing. As far as which lead to make, one has to consider how to best weaken the opponents potential strength and how best can my partner assist? ...with a big trump? ...with high offsuit cards? ...or maybe both. You are in effect making trump for your partner here so IMO you lead into all his potential strengths while also drawing your opps potential trumps together. Lead your Qd, I say. Being 3 suited and not being assured of at least one trick, this lead minimizes the chance of losing by getting overtrumped in tricks.

Dlan, your reply to this crossing suit posting by the member Crispy suggests that 1st seat lead the turned down suit, therefore recommending an exception to the rule of play.

Will you please explain why, to you, this situation should incur an exception to the rule, "never lead the turn down suit"?

crispy
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Unread post by crispy » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:16 pm

BTW, I probably should have said I had 9c and spades turned down (or said clubs was turned down). I was trying to minimize the impact that other "rules" might have. I said that if diamonds were called I didn't know what to lead, but given choices are Kh and 9s, probably Kh is the right choice, but if instead clubs were turned down it is a bit more of a toss up what to lead.

Also I want to add that in general I find these "2 with right or 3 with left" hands both hard to call and hard to play. Some are more clear on what to do than others (both the call and the play), but I feel most leave me head scratching. Perhaps that is a sign that the choice might not matter much, and it's really a 50-50 call.

I will say that if I had Ah instead of Kh (Jh Ah Qd Td and 9s), I'd feel confident diamonds is the right call and a low diamond is the right lead, hoping to make the Jh boss and the not get trumped later when leading the Ah. There is a clear path to getting 3 tricks myself with this approach (of course, nothing guaranteed).

justme
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Unread post by justme » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:56 pm

crispy wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:16 pm
BTW, I probably should have said I had 9c and spades turned down (or said clubs was turned down). I was trying to minimize the impact that other "rules" might have. I said that if diamonds were called I didn't know what to lead, but given choices are Kh and 9s, probably Kh is the right choice, but if instead clubs were turned down it is a bit more of a toss up what to lead.

I will say that if I had Ah instead of Kh (Jh Ah Qd Td and 9s), I'd feel confident diamonds is the right call and a low diamond is the right lead, hoping to make the Jh boss and the not get trumped later when leading the Ah.
If Ah and 9c was in hand rather than the Kh and 9s in this situation, I would feel more confident of getting my point after I made it diamonds, and I would still lead one of my smaller trump. Neither combination of Ah or Kh coupled with the 9c or 9s would change that.

IMO, even using the best strategy for any of the hand combinations you've implied, I doubt a high rate of return will occur.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:44 pm

Call diamonds (L+2), and lead middle trump (In this case it doesn't matter matter cuz your bottom 2 trump are connected but you get the idea). I'd be very surprised if a simulator showed there was a better line. Can't pass 3 trump in that spot when you don't block all suits.

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:58 pm

I had a go at simulating this hand. The surprising result I found was that bidding H beat out bidding D by a significant margin: EV = +0.10 for H bid vs. EV = -0.17 for D bid. Like you, I am skeptical of this result [my program has D as the better bid, despite the worse results for this particular card arrangement]. But when I looked a random sampling of hands where bidding H or D gave different results it was not readily apparent that there was incorrect play - it all just looked like "unfortunate" card placement in the other hands.

It would seem to me that you need to count on partner in S3 for a trick, in either case. With 3 trump (D), lacking the R, I would assume you could win with 2 of them. With 2 higher trump (H), you have a good chance of winning both of them. So again, I can't explain the difference. Though it seems to stem from getting euchred less when calling H.

I did find that leading the 9S was best with either bid. I also found that the odds of partner in S3 having the other bower (JD) was about 24%, if the bidding got to the 2nd round (12% of the time)*. With partner holding 5 of 18 unknown cards, a random distribution would suggest a 27.8% chance of holding the JD. Why the difference? If S2 and S4 aren't bidding, they don't hold a lot of Clubs, and often not the black J's. So their hands are marginally more populated by red cards - including the JD. This lends credence to Dlan's statement: don't expect a lot of support from your partner if you cross suits (i.e., bid D or C when C has been turned, R1).

Indeed, I found S3 had a LOT of C and marginally more S when the bidding got to R2, but not enough to justify bidding C, R2, by S1 (since they have none). Passing was worse than bidding either red suit (for S1).

Not sure if these "insights" are helpful, but I am intrigued by the result that bidding H is better than D (S1, R2). Just too big a difference for me to say it's just my program "playing poorly", but I can't pinpoint or explain exactly why I get that result.

* I fixed S1's hand + the turn, then simulated 1,000,000 hands and tallied how often S3 held the JD when bidding got to R2.

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