3/12 Fri Got euchred #1

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Dlan
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3/12 Fri Got euchred #1

Unread post by Dlan » Sun Mar 13, 2022 12:10 pm




irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:52 pm

I suggest this hand as it was played, should be titled HOW TO EUCHRE YOUR PARTNER or ONE AGAINST THREE!

With no Voids/no Aces, and an Unguarded Left, why would S2 under play the 10D lead? What kind of strategy is that? Where was that taught?

Common sense says, if the Dealer wins the trick and leads the Right your Left is useless. At least try and help out by trying to cover S1's lead of 10D.

Or was S2 trying to get the game over? IT WORKED!

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:00 pm

I would instinctively play my best card (assume here we are talking about non-trump) in S2 in this situation - if it beats the card led. Is there a scenario to not do so? I am similarly befuddled as to what S2 was thinking - but maybe there was an underlying strategy. Maybe I am missing something.

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:11 pm

raydog wrote:
Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:00 pm
I would instinctively play my best card (assume here we are talking about non-trump) in S2 in this situation - if it beats the card led. Is there a scenario to not do so? I am similarly befuddled as to what S2 was thinking - but maybe there was an underlying strategy. Maybe I am missing something.
He was playing under to promote his KD to boss status with hopes that that boss card could come in handy later in the hand. This is a strategy recommended on this site somewhere I believe. So I wouldn't say S2's play is crazy or anything. There's a logic to it. Of course what really matters is whether this play is correct or not.

The only other tidbit I will add is if one is playing on the karman games app with the go under feature, they should be using this ploy constantly given that every time someone goes under all aces are in action.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:23 pm

Regardless if this site or anyone says that is the best play, I would like to see the PROOF. I say, NONSENSE with unguarded Left, and no Voids. Show me some Proof? (other than - Ya, only when the Right is buried - 17% or trump is led and Right is under played.)

"He was playing under to promote his KD to boss status with hopes that that boss card could come in handy later in the hand. This is a strategy recommended on this site somewhere I believe. So I wouldn't say S2's play is crazy or anything. There's a logic to it. Of course what really matters is whether this play is correct or not."

IRISH

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:47 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:23 pm
Regardless if this site or anyone says that is the best play, I would like to see the PROOF. I say, NONSENSE with unguarded Left, and no Voids. Show me some Proof? (other than - Ya, only when the Right is buried - 17% or trump is led and Right is under played.)
Well I don't need to show you proof cuz I agree with you on this:-) Just saying S2s play isn't as bizarre as it looks.

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Unread post by raydog » Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:29 am

For what it's worth, I tested this hand. Assuming the usual caveats - my simulator has its biases - this is what I found.

I planted the KD + 9D in S2 hand, and forced the 10S to be turned. All other cards randomly distributed. I then only looked at hands where S4 called trump, R1, and S1 led a D (non-A). This was about 6% of the time (so about 6,0000 hands).

If S2 played the KD: EV = +0.23
If S2 played the 9D: EV = +0.15

It seems clear to me that just playing that K (and hoping S3 doesn't have the A, concurrent with S4 not being void in D) is the better play.

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Mar 14, 2022 2:05 am

raydog wrote:
Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:29 am
For what it's worth, I tested this hand. Assuming the usual caveats - my simulator has its biases - this is what I found.

I planted the KD + 9D in S2 hand, and forced the 10S to be turned. All other cards randomly distributed. I then only looked at hands where S4 called trump, R1, and S1 led a D (non-A). This was about 6% of the time (so about 6,0000 hands).

If S2 played the KD: EV = +0.23
If S2 played the 9D: EV = +0.15

It seems clear to me that just playing that K (and hoping S3 doesn't have the A, concurrent with S4 not being void in D) is the better play.
Thank you Ray. Ive always wondered about this spot in general so I'm glad you tested it from that perspective.
Good stuff. I think it's pretty safe to conclude now that this ploy isn't worth it except when one is playing the euchre variant with "go under".

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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 14, 2022 7:57 pm

Not a great simulation because you did not give S2 the full compliment of the hand that he had? If S2 has Left guarded + 9D/KD I would play the 9D and create a void.

raydog wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:29 am
For what it's worth, I tested this hand. Assuming the usual caveats - my simulator has its biases - this is what I found.

I planted the KD + 9D in S2 hand, and forced the 10S to be turned. All other cards randomly distributed. I then only looked at hands where S4 called trump, R1, and S1 led a D (non-A). This was about 6% of the time (so about 6,0000 hands).

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Unread post by raydog » Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:26 am

You lost me here, Irish. If you play the 9D you don't create a void - you still have the KD. What am I missing?

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:09 pm

To clarify BIG IF and that is if S2 has has a guarded Left, (JC xS KD 9 & a xx singleton). Diamond led, yes he has to underplay with 9D. Or he can he should create a void with that singleton.
But I suspect with those Random 3 cards to what is your Simulator doing when the Left is guarded? Thus it makes a difference with a Guarded Left on to play the KD vs 9D.

Is that clear?

IRISH

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:48 pm

Irish,

Absolutely not clear, but here is my interpretation - tell me if I am correct before I try to test this.

S2 holds K-9D + JC + xS [thus, L + 1 trump] + x [either a H or a C] yes?

If D led, KD should be played. Do you still not agree with this?

If H or C played - and S2 happens to hold the OTHER suit - they should discard their off-suit rather than trumping? Correct?

As you say, the devil is in the details, and I am finding it devilishly hard to pin down the details of this hand. I suspect your mind is working at 10X the pace of your typing fingers! All good, just want to pin this down.

[Also, when you say xx singleton, that makes me think 2 cards. But with 2 trump + 2 Diamonds, there is only one card left. Probably a typo, but please understand the confusion this causes when I try to interpret what you are saying! SINGLETON is fortunately the predominant clue here.]

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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:58 pm

S2 hand of the original Post: JC 9C KH KD 9D. But in your Simulation you game S2 KD & 9D with three random cards. Of course he should play the KD to win the trick then lead the JC. Those random cards are not the ORIGINAL hand because sometimes give a trump card to his hand. That is DIFFERENT and must be played differently.

Absolutely not clear, but here is my interpretation - tell me if I am correct before I try to test this.

S2 holds K-9D + JC + xS [thus, L + 1 trump] + x [either a H or a C] yes? YES

If D led, KD should be played. Do you still not agree with this? NO IF LEFT IS GUARDED.

If H or C played - and S2 happens to hold the OTHER suit - they should discard their off-suit rather than trumping? Correct? YES CORRECT

Conclusion is that everything is different when the Left is Guarded.

IRISH

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Mar 15, 2022 1:07 pm

So what do you want me to test? In the original post, S2 is 4-suited, with L unguarded. S2 needs to follow suit if a D is lead (you agree now that KD is the play, leading the L on trick 2 if the K wins, for the given hand, right?). And being 4-suited, will always need to follow suit?

Are you suggesting some different hand for S2? Or are you asking if S2 (in my simulator) leads the L after (if) winning the 1st trick?

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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 15, 2022 1:43 pm

Simulation should be S2 JC 9C KD 9D KH 10S as the upcard - WITH 18 random cards and Dealer Ordering the upcard.

Then play KD vs 9D.

IRISH

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:17 pm

OK, I gave the original hand to S2, and set the 10S as the turn card. I then ran 100,000 otherwise randomized hands, and looked at only at those where S4 called and S1 led a non-A diamond on the first trick (approx. 5,700 hands).

If KD played: EV = +0.30
if 10D played: EV = +0.22

You keep talking about S2 having L +1 (guarded left), but that is not the original hand, and I'm not sure why it makes a difference. If I swap the 9C for the 9S in the original hand (giving S2 guarded left), then S2 calls trump, so not a comparable scenario [S1 will in some cases lead trump with S2 calling; and if I force S2 to pass, that is contrived].

Is there another specific scenario you'd like me to look at?

FYI, if a player has the guarded left and is playing defense, my program will have them hold off playing trump as long as possible to try and ensure they stop a sweep (i.e., wait for the R to be led and playing their low trump to make their L good; or only playing trump when they are the last one to play and are sure they can win the trick) - not sure if that is the tactic you are looking for?

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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:44 pm

Thanks for re-running per the original hand. I am surprised the spread was not larger. As to why I was talking about the guarded Left is that your first run you had 3 random cards + KD/10D which to me means sometime in dealing he will have JC+xS. And that to me is a different hand and is where I would not play the KD. How S2 plays the KD or 9D all depends on if has two trumps compared to one trump. If he has two trumps (like JC guarded), then let the Dealer win that trick because the Dealer with only S3 having to play has better than a 50% chance to win the trick with the AD or by trumping.

"OK, I gave the original hand to S2, and set the 10S as the turn card. I then ran 100,000 otherwise randomized hands, and looked at only at those where S4 called and S1 led a non-A diamond on the first trick (approx. 5,700 hands).

If KD played: EV = +0.30
if 10D played: EV = +0.22

You keep talking about S2 having L +1 (guarded left), but that is not the original hand, and I'm not sure why it makes a difference." Maybe I misunderstood how many trumps S2 might have when you did three random cards to him?

I am good with what you have run on this. No need to run any in addition.

THANKS

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Unread post by raydog » Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:09 pm

You have introduced another line of enquiry for me:

Say S2 has K-9S + KH +K-9D (10S turned), and S4 declares.

S2 has 2 trump (not guarded L), and if they win the first D lead with their KD, they currently lead the 9D (as per my program). I'm thinking this may not be the best lead, given that S1 has a very good chance of trumping S4 (should they still have a D - not unlikely) or overtrumping S4 even if they don't have a D. Why not lead a low trump (S2 will still have another trump in reserve), or another off-suit?

This will take a bit of finagling, but I think it make lead to more optimal play.

S2 having guarded L should also be investigated, but S2 will often call, R1, in this scenario, which changes the parameters (no longer sure about the strength of partner's hand).

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:44 pm

raydog wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:09 pm
You have introduced another line of enquiry for me:

Say S2 has K-9S + KH +K-9D (10S turned), and S4 declares.

S2 has 2 trump (not guarded L), and if they win the first D lead with their KD, they currently lead the 9D (as per my program). I'm thinking this may not be the best lead, given that S1 has a very good chance of trumping S4 (should they still have a D - not unlikely) or overtrumping S4 even if they don't have a D.
Not only is double leading a diamond on trick 2 not the best lead, it's actually the very worst possible lead. And you've actually already explained why. That toxic lead puts your P in squeeze likely to get over trumped by S1. So yea you gotta fix that. That lead sets your Maker P up to fail and basically blows any chanceof your team getting 2 pts. Lead low trump instead on 2nd street. That's the best lead in that spot.
raydog wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:09 pm
Why not lead a low trump (S2 will still have another trump in reserve), or another off-suit?
Yep, always lead trump to the maker in that spot on 2nd street when you win the first trick. There are exceptions to this rule especially at 9-9 where getting 2 pts is irrelevant but for the sake of simplicity I would just ignore that regarding your simulator as leading trump will be correct the vast majority of time.
raydog wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:09 pm
This will take a bit of finagling, but I think it make lead to more optimal play.
Imo this is a big glitch in your simulator that needs to be fixed. When someone double leads me diamonds in that spot I literally wanna murder them.
raydog wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:09 pm
S2 having guarded L should also be investigated, but S2 will often call, R1, in this scenario, which changes the parameters (no longer sure about the strength of partner's hand).
I've lost track of the guarded Left conversation but if Wolf is saying we should throw off on the first lead those times we have the guarded Left and can create a void, I agree with him.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:28 pm

To your comment on the hand S2 You have introduced another line of inquiry for me:

Just me I suppose but i would almost Never double lead here (yep - Murder she wrote!) unless S2 was the Maker with Boss trump + 1. If S2 is the Maker this is just like a Trump lead. I have used this a lot of double lead, when I am the maker but almost Never when dealer is the maker. That is different from your scenario.

If the Dealer is the maker you have no idea his strength (generally) and now put him in a Squeeze by double leading. For me, I would lead him something he can trump as the best line to get your point or a Sweep.

You can now compare what I have said to Wes's comments. I think we are pretty close but I tend to like lead something Dealer or Maker can trump. Thus, I don't necessarily agree always lead trump because the Dealer could have called weak. And any opponent with J J or J A can wipe you out! I call thin and don't always like those leads unless my partner had an off suit Ace. If the Maker/Dealer, here, does not have the Boss card, Left/Ace or three small trumps, leading trump is not a good lead, IMO. Lead me something I can trump but not what I sloughed as the Dealer/Maker. My calling is little more defensive. Basically, it depends a lot on knowing my partner. You will get more Sweeps leading trump but also more times being Euchred. So score, player and situation - IT ALL DEPENDS!

IRISH

You said, "Say S2 has K-9S + KH +K-9D (10S turned), and S4 declares.

S2 has 2 trump (not guarded L), and if they win the first D lead with their KD, they currently lead the 9D (as per my program). I'm thinking this may not be the best lead, given that S1 has a very good chance of trumping S4 (should they still have a D - not unlikely) or over trumping S4 even if they don't have a D. Why not lead a low trump (S2 will still have another trump in reserve), or another off-suit?

This will take a bit of finagling, but I think it make lead to more optimal play.'

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Unread post by raydog » Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:59 pm

I fully understand the murderous instincts! A bit of coding involved here, but I am working on testing and correcting this glitch.

I also came a cross a related issue: for this particular hand, S2 has K-9S + KH + K-9D (10S turned) - so void in clubs. When S4 calls and a non-A club is led, S2 plays off - but currently throws off the 9D [identified by my program as the "worst" card in their hand]. Would it not be better to discard the KH, and thus create a void in H, given that the singleton KH is not an obvious winner, and, holding 2 trump, trumping a later H lead is a very viable option?

I did test this strategy with this particular hand, and was rather surprised to find that it barely moved the needle: of 10,000 hands played, this cropped up about 1,300 times [S4 calls, S1 leads a non-A Club]. The difference between throwing off the 9D and the KH was EV = 1.24 vs. EV = 1.25. A subtle shift in the right direction, but devoid of statistical significance. Is this nonetheless a strategy I should consider employing in a more general sense, not just for this particular hand? As I said, I see the logic for getting void in H, but given the minuscule impact I'm wondering if I'm missing some other aspect.

Expert advice solicited!

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Mar 16, 2022 5:22 pm

raydog wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:59 pm
I fully understand the murderous instincts! A bit of coding involved here, but I am working on testing and correcting this glitch.

I also came a cross a related issue: for this particular hand, S2 has K-9S + KH + K-9D (10S turned) - so void in clubs. When S4 calls and a non-A club is led, S2 plays off - but currently throws off the 9D [identified by my program as the "worst" card in their hand]. Would it not be better to discard the KH, and thus create a void in H, given that the singleton KH is not an obvious winner, and, holding 2 trump, trumping a later H lead is a very viable option?

I did test this strategy with this particular hand, and was rather surprised to find that it barely moved the needle: of 10,000 hands played, this cropped up about 1,300 times [S4 calls, S1 leads a non-A Club]. The difference between throwing off the 9D and the KH was EV = 1.24 vs. EV = 1.25. A subtle shift in the right direction, but devoid of statistical significance. Is this nonetheless a strategy I should consider employing in a more general sense, not just for this particular hand? As I said, I see the logic for getting void in H, but given the minuscule impact I'm wondering if I'm missing some other aspect.

Expert advice solicited!
With K9 in trump in that spot, you should trump high and send low. IE trump high with the King and lead trump to the maker with the 9.

But yea if you didn't do that of course it's better to throw off with the KH creating a void vs throwing off with the 9D.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Mar 16, 2022 7:29 pm

If AC is led, I agree, trump high and lead 9S. But if it is a low Club lead, I would slough the KH. Reason for the slough is that the Dealer has better than a 50% chance to win that trick. You will get more sweeps this way.

As to why your program is not seeing more of a difference? Makes little sense to me. Need to find out why?
Some guesses: 1) Possibly the Dealer (program) is not recognizing the KH as a void and seldom leads to the Heart void. 2) There can be reasons such as, does not have a heart to lead as that is the Dealer's void. S4 wins the trick and leads AH or AD he follows suit or now creates a void. 3) If S2 sloughs the 9D those two Kings are almost equal in terms of taking a trick or never come into play? In terms of the Ace to H's or D's being buried is equal (17%) if 9D is sloughed.
4) If KH is sloughed, S2 can trump a Heart if he needs to but cannot trump a D. There should be a significant difference (estimate 8 to 10%) over the course of many hands played. To slough the 9D is basically a form of "false carding" as no advantage in terms of creating a void. Just guessing, disregard if you want!

I think one way to find out is plant a AD dblt to S4 hand with S4 having a void in Hearts. Or vice versa Heart doubleton (not the AH) and now see if S2 creates a heart void and trumps it? You get the drift - get creative and see what happens.

But these are the types of things that sometimes I have suggested, I don't get the difference in some of the EVs posts. I think important to dig deeper as it probably leads to some issues.

IRISH

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:47 pm

raydog wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:59 pm
I fully understand the murderous instincts! A bit of coding involved here, but I am working on testing and correcting this glitch.

I also came a cross a related issue: for this particular hand, S2 has K-9S + KH + K-9D (10S turned) - so void in clubs. When S4 calls and a non-A club is led, S2 plays off - but currently throws off the 9D [identified by my program as the "worst" card in their hand]. Would it not be better to discard the KH, and thus create a void in H, given that the singleton KH is not an obvious winner, and, holding 2 trump, trumping a later H lead is a very viable option?

I did test this strategy with this particular hand, and was rather surprised to find that it barely moved the needle: of 10,000 hands played, this cropped up about 1,300 times [S4 calls, S1 leads a non-A Club]. The difference between throwing off the 9D and the KH was EV = 1.24 vs. EV = 1.25. A subtle shift in the right direction, but devoid of statistical significance. Is this nonetheless a strategy I should consider employing in a more general sense, not just for this particular hand? As I said, I see the logic for getting void in H, but given the minuscule impact I'm wondering if I'm missing some other aspect.

Expert advice solicited!


You should be discarding the King of hearts. The factor you may be missing is the communication it gives to your partner for future streets(poker term) or future tricks. This will allow your partner to play accordingly. Knowing you have this void in hearts. It allows for the potentiality of other playing depending on the score and the opponents. Information gathered by from either the opponents or your partner is something not measurable I don't think and is often over looked or perhaps not given it's proper due as to how impactful "information" can be.

Tbolt65
Edward

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Mar 17, 2022 3:50 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 5:22 pm
raydog wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:59 pm
I fully understand the murderous instincts! A bit of coding involved here, but I am working on testing and correcting this glitch.

I also came a cross a related issue: for this particular hand, S2 has K-9S + KH + K-9D (10S turned) - so void in clubs. When S4 calls and a non-A club is led, S2 plays off - but currently throws off the 9D [identified by my program as the "worst" card in their hand]. Would it not be better to discard the KH, and thus create a void in H, given that the singleton KH is not an obvious winner, and, holding 2 trump, trumping a later H lead is a very viable option?

I did test this strategy with this particular hand, and was rather surprised to find that it barely moved the needle: of 10,000 hands played, this cropped up about 1,300 times [S4 calls, S1 leads a non-A Club]. The difference between throwing off the 9D and the KH was EV = 1.24 vs. EV = 1.25. A subtle shift in the right direction, but devoid of statistical significance. Is this nonetheless a strategy I should consider employing in a more general sense, not just for this particular hand? As I said, I see the logic for getting void in H, but given the minuscule impact I'm wondering if I'm missing some other aspect.

Expert advice solicited!
With K9 in trump in that spot, you should trump high and send low. IE trump high with the King and lead trump to the maker with the 9.

But yea if you didn't do that of course it's better to throw off with the KH creating a void vs throwing off with the 9D.

I agree, go high, send low. Is the optimal play here.

I also commented above about the king of heart situation and agree here as well.

Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:49 pm

RAY,

I am wondering if you can test this:
Wes says, "With K9 in trump in that spot, you should trump high and send low. IE trump high with the King and lead trump to the maker with the 9." Once you do this, S2 is basically out of play. I think it matters if S4 has a weak hand vs strong hand.

But I would say it's better to slough the KH unless the Jack was the up card. I think fewer Euchre, more Sweeps, etc. This type of hand comes up frequently.

TEST: give S2 the hand KS 9S KH KD 9D. Test vs JS up, then same test 10S upcard. All other cards random but Dealer has to be the Maker.

IRISH

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:08 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:49 pm
RAY,

I am wondering if you can test this:
Wes says, "With K9 in trump in that spot, you should trump high and send low. IE trump high with the King and lead trump to the maker with the 9." Once you do this, S2 is basically out of play. I think it matters if S4 has a weak hand vs strong hand.

But I would say it's better to slough the KH unless the Jack was the up card. I think fewer Euchre, more Sweeps, etc. This type of hand comes up frequently.

TEST: give S2 the hand KS 9S KH KD 9D. Test vs JS up, then same test 10S upcard. All other cards random but Dealer has to be the Maker.

IRISH
I dont see him running tests any time soon. He's in Vegas right now. Ray will be at our Vegas tournament tonight!

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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:13 pm

LOL - GOOD LUCK!

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Mar 18, 2022 12:48 am

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:13 pm
LOL - GOOD LUCK!
Ray won the whole f*%*$ing thing!! First place with 60 pts.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Mar 18, 2022 1:16 am

WOW! Congratulations Ray!

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Unread post by irishwolf » Fri Mar 18, 2022 1:38 am

This might not be the complete answer to the issue below but I will say that trumping high and leading trump HURTS the maker on thin Orders. There are four unknown trumps to this situation (JS JC AS QS). When the dealer orders with these weak but biddable hands a trump lead might be trouble to make your point:

JS/10s + AC and (S2 trumped the AC trick)
JC/10s + AC (unless JS is buried) issue if Opponent has JS/AS
AS/10s + AC (unless Jacks are split and not guarded)

When is a lead better: Of course any three trumps by S4 (Dealer) a lead is great but so is sloughing the KH. Or if S4 has JS + AD or AH then a lead is great.

This to me favors sloughing the KH is favored over trumping high and leading low. IMO

IRISH

----------------------

Maybe Ray can still test this at some point to confirm:
I am wondering if you can test this:
Wes says, "With K9 in trump in that spot, you should trump high and send low. IE trump high with the King and lead trump to the maker with the 9." Once you do this, S2 is basically out of play. I think it matters if S4 has a weak hand vs strong hand.

But I would say it's better to slough the KH unless the Jack was the up card. I think fewer Euchre, more Sweeps, etc. This type of hand comes up frequently.

TEST: give S2 the hand KS 9S KH KD 9D. Test vs JS up, then same test 10S upcard. All other cards random but Dealer has to be the Maker.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Fri Mar 18, 2022 2:39 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Fri Mar 18, 2022 12:48 am
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:13 pm
LOL - GOOD LUCK!
Ray won the whole f*%*$ing thing!! First place with 60 pts.
Yep, nice job Ray.


Tbolt65
Edward

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:10 pm

First of all, winning the tourney in Vegas was a lark - just too much "luck" (variability in a small - less than 100 hands - sample) to read too much into it. But as a noted golfer once said, after getting a hole-in-one and it being derided as "just luck": "The more I practice, the luckier I get." There's something to that.

On to the simulation that Irish suggested. I have just run that, over 1,000,000 hands (as the criteria are so specific that only a small percentage of hands pass through all the hoops). Here is what I found:

S2 has K-9S + KH + K-10D; turn card is a Spade (either J or 10); S4 calls it up, taking partner along; S1 leads a non-A Club.
scenario 1: S2 throws off the 10D
scenario 2: S2 throws off the KH
scenario 3: S2 trumps high (with the KS), then leads low trump (9S) on the 2nd' trick

JS turned:
1) (4,783 / 31,126 / 6,211) [+2 pts / +1 pt / euchred] EV = +0.34
2) (5,966 / 31,638 / 4,516) EV = +0.41
3) (12,919 / 26,505 / 2,696) EV = +0.56
Notes: as Irish predicted, trumping and then leading trump is best. The first trick is in the bag, as is the second [assuming S4 plays the R]. And there is a good chance all trump are then out (of opponents hands). Likelihood of a euchre is limited, and some sweeps will happen, so a reasonable play.

10S turned:
1) (1,811 / 18,862 / 4,604) EV = +0.26
2) (2,513 / 19,280 / 3,484) EV = +0.34
3)5,079 / 18,624 / 1,574) EV = +0.51
Notes: while the results as a whole have shifted (not surprising, since S4, on average, has a weaker hand), I still find it better to follow scenario 3 and "trump high, lead low". I did not find this intuitive, but also, upon reflection, do not find it surprising. If S4 has 3 trump, this will often void the opponents in trump (even if they do sometimes take this trick), and put S4 in the driver's seat. If S4 only has 2 trump, their holding will often include the R, which puts us back in the previous scenario (JS turned). If S4 has 2 trump and NOT the R, they likely have strength elsewhere (Aces, voids) and so still do well.

Irish, you may well argue that my simulator is not having S4 call with the proper sub-set of hands, and that could indeed be an issue. But I would argue that the difference is too large here, and even after accounting for some adjustment to the "subset of hands bid by S4 with partner", the overall conclusion would not change.

Just debating here - my mind remains open.
_______________

Note that my simulator currently doesn't read anything into S2's discard [scenarios 1 and 2], and so doesn't take that into account when S4 is making the 2nd trick lead. I tried to correct for this as a test, but this simulation was fraught: leading a D in scenario 1 [with S4 likely having 2 of them] is just inviting the opponents to trump, and the results showed a much poorer result; leading a H in scenario 2 didn't show any appreciable change in results, likely because it was ALWAYS done (if possible), even if a JS lead (followed be a H lead) would have been better. Simulating with this particular hand for S2 wasn't reasonable.

But this an improvement I have added to my list of ways to improve my simulator. This potential communication between partners (i.e., "I am throwing off, perhaps I am voiding myself in that suit?") should be taken into consideration, within the hierarchy of things to consider.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:53 pm

Ray, ..."winning the tourney in Vegas was a lark - just too much "luck" (variability in a small - less than 100 hands - sample) to read too much into it."

Don't sell yourself short. You did WELL. But do be careful in Vegas not to get sucked in! Hard to win against the House!

(Must have been playing a 8 x 12 rounds Single?) Anyway that is 10 Game equivalent (10.2 hands/Game is the Standard average). And I am sure the BOYS and some other Sharpies played as well. Any where in the top 5 players is a good placement, usually 80 point total wins those. And the winner has to have about 3 or 4 loners combined with their partner. Loners are basically luck so is about 35% of the game in the flow of cards so the Best player seldom wins but places high. Funny think about 'Singles' tournament is that calling thin is actually not a good strategy because it cuts down on when your partner may have had a loner and you spoiled it. I never liked Singles because my Partner is new each hand and seldom knows what the H E L L I am doing. LOL!

Yes, indeed, more practice the right way, YOU MAKE YOUR OWN LUCK! "But as a noted golfer once said, after getting a hole-in-one and it being derided as "just luck": "The more I practice, the luckier I get." There's something to that."

Yes, I want to comment on your Simulator results but want to put my thoughts together have more review!

IRISH

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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:41 pm

Ray, True, still 18% of the time one of the opponents has another, ... (JS lead) And there is a good chance all trump are then out (of opponents hands).) True if S4 has JS + 2 not with 3 unknown trumps.

But the difference between sloughing KH vs 9D I do not agree with your results. I think that spread is more like EV + 15 (don't agree with your Simulator when 10S is the upcard and S4 only has 2 trumps) between the two if played correctly and S4 leads to his H void when sloughing. I also think slough KH when 9C, 10C or QC is led by S1. Or when S1 leads from 2 clubs or even 3 clubs - S2 MUST slough. Yes, there could be a lot to debate. While you were in Vegas, I ran my own test. I got different results on 10S, KH vs trumping. I did not run slough low Diamond tho (I think ridiculous to not create a void, yet break up a doubleton).

But that is okay, thanks for running and we can move on!

IRISH

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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:49 am

raydog wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:10 pm
First of all, winning the tourney in Vegas was a lark - just too much "luck" (variability in a small - less than 100 hands - sample) to read too much into it. But as a noted golfer once said, after getting a hole-in-one and it being derided as "just luck": "The more I practice, the luckier I get." There's something to that.
There is only one correct response for your accomplishment: Veni, Vidi, Vici b*#hes!!
raydog wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:10 pm
10S turned:
1) (1,811 / 18,862 / 4,604) EV = +0.26
2) (2,513 / 19,280 / 3,484) EV = +0.34
3)5,079 / 18,624 / 1,574) EV = +0.51
Notes: while the results as a whole have shifted (not surprising, since S4, on average, has a weaker hand), I still find it better to follow scenario 3 and "trump high, lead low". I did not find this intuitive, but also, upon reflection, do not find it surprising. If S4 has 3 trump, this will often void the opponents in trump (even if they do sometimes take this trick), and put S4 in the driver's seat. If S4 only has 2 trump, their holding will often include the R, which puts us back in the previous scenario (JS turned). If S4 has 2 trump and NOT the R, they likely have strength elsewhere (Aces, voids) and so still do well.
Good stuff Ray. While this isn't ironclad proof that trumping high and leading low is best becuz simulators are not perfect, etc, I think it's very strong evidence that that's indeed the case. The spread in EV between 3) and the rest is pretty damn large. For me and Edward trumping high and leading low in this spot has been very intuitive as it feels like we have both been taking this line since the beginning of time. I'm also pretty sure the 3 other experts in our tourny take this line. Of course what seems intuitive can still be wrong so I'm very glad this spot was put to the test. As far as I'm concerned tho this spot is solved.

Other points of interest:

1) If I have A-X in trump I also trump high send low. I'm assuming that will test out similar to K-X.
2) If I have L+1, I play off if I can create a void (I wonder if your simulator would say that's correct or not, and if it did say that was correct I wonder if it's correct to play off on the first lead EVEN IF we couldn't create a void)

2A) If I can't create a void I trump low, send high. I wonder what your simulator would say on which line was best between trump low/send high vs trump high/send low with L+1.
raydog wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:10 pm
Note that my simulator currently doesn't read anything into S2's discard [scenarios 1 and 2], and so doesn't take that into account when S4 is making the 2nd trick lead. I tried to correct for this as a test, but this simulation was fraught: leading a D in scenario 1 [with S4 likely having 2 of them] is just inviting the opponents to trump, and the results showed a much poorer result; leading a H in scenario 2 didn't show any appreciable change in results, likely because it was ALWAYS done (if possible), even if a JS lead (followed be a H lead) would have been better. Simulating with this particular hand for S2 wasn't reasonable.
For the record, when S2 plays off with the KH on the first lead and an expert S4 takes the first trick, they will never be leading to S2's void (hearts) in that spot on 2nd street. This is becuz when S2 plays off on the first lead, as first priority an expert S4 has to read that as meaning "S2 has no trump" and if S2 has no trump that means the distribution of remaining trump is more heavily in enemy hands, therefore S4 MUST lead trump on 2nd street in this scenario as the likelihood and value of taking out 2 enemy trump with one lead crucially go up. The only exception being when S4 can create an end play with Ace-Right in trump (then lead garbage on 2nd street instead). If S4 has King-Right in trump it's possible that playing for an endplay--hoping some key trump are in the kitty or not on the makers left--is best. That's the grey area hand for me, but all other combos S4 must lead trump on 2nd street after S2 plays off on the 1st lead.

So say S4 starts with Right-Queen-Ten in trump + 2 other garbage cards and S4 takes the first trick with the Ten of trump after S2 played off. S4 should lead the Right on 2nd street. Now in this spot going with Wolf's convention to play off with K-9 trump, once S4 leads the Right on 2nd street and sees S2 play a trump, S4 instantly knows two things: 1) S2 has another trump & 2) S2 is void in hearts as he threw off the KH on the first lead. So if S4 has no off aces to lead, he will aim to lead a heart on 3rd street if he has one. That's a lot of complexity for a simulator, probably too much.

BTW from the 2 seat I would recommend playing off with the Right (whether we can create a void or not) and playing off with L+1 those times we can create a void). Notice how when we play off on trick 1 we trigger a good S4 to lead trump on trick 2 and notice how that line fits perfectly with S2 holding the Right or L+1.
raydog wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:10 pm
But this an improvement I have added to my list of ways to improve my simulator. This potential communication between partners (i.e., "I am throwing off, perhaps I am voiding myself in that suit?") should be taken into consideration, within the hierarchy of things to consider.
It should be taken into consideration but most of the time not on 2nd street. On that street S4 should be leading trump after S2 plays off on first street. It's generally gonna be on 3rd street that S4 should lead to S2's void. The major exception being those times S4 is trying to set up an end play. For example, say S4 started with Right-Ace-Ten in trump + two garbage cards, and S4 takes the first trick with the Ten of trump. Now if possible S4 should lead to his P's void (hearts) when he's trying to set up his end play on 2nd street.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:07 am

Just realize that when S2 trumps high - S3 has void and singleton AS or JC he would can over trump and would have trumped the Club trump anyway.

Then there are these hands JS up or not, S2 LEADS TRUMPS and dealer has:

JS 10S + AC QH 9H
JS QS + AC QH 9H
JS 10S + AC QD 9D
JS QS + AC QD 9D

OR ANY TIME S1/S3 HAS:

JS/JC

OR S1 HAS:

JS/AS

Your F - - K - ed !
(among other combinations which can be problematic but not so much whenb NOT leading trump in all those if correctly played)!

And do you know what your euchre rate will be?

Irish

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:32 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:07 am
Just realize that when S2 trumps high - S3 has void and singleton AS or JC he would can over trump and would have trumped the Club trump anyway.



Irish
That's fine then. Trumping high does two things. It prevents s3 from sloughing/laying off and puts s3 to a decision to over trump or not. Either way it's good information for s4 to know what trump is left and to play accordingly. It also makes seat 4 postion stronger and helps both s2 and s4 hands in later trick taking opportunities to secure their point.


Regardless it is very rare on first lead of a suit that two people will be void in any given suit with no prior sloughing in the hand. Does it happen? Sure but the only way to possibly play for that scenario. Is to really get into hand reading and speculative reading and tryingvto foresee what holdings might be in your partners and opponents hands. I would agree in principle there are times to make these types of decisions based on logic or card intuition. However one have to pick their spots and not confuse or over extrapolate the situation at hand.



Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:41 pm

Well, Ed you commented on something that is about 4% of what my Post was about (and I am in agreement). It's selectively taking out of context, IMO!

What about the other (96%)?

IRISH

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Mar 27, 2022 1:56 am

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:41 pm
Well, Ed you commented on something that is about 4% of what my Post was about (and I am in agreement). It's selectively taking out of context, IMO!

What about the other (96%)?

IRISH

Just realize that when S2 trumps high - S3 has void and singleton AS or JC he would can over trump and would have trumped the Club trump anyway.

Then there are these hands JS up or not, S2 LEADS TRUMPS and dealer has:

JS 10S + AC QH 9H
JS QS + AC QH 9H
JS 10S + AC QD 9D
JS QS + AC QD 9D

OR ANY TIME S1/S3 HAS:

JS/JC

OR S1 HAS:

JS/AS

Your F - - K - ed !
(among other combinations which can be problematic but not so much whenb NOT leading trump in all those if correctly played)!

With the four hands displayed. Trump High send low will at bare min.(most of the time) establish Five trump, possibly 6 trump and that leaves 2 or 1 trump left and if they are all out meaning in players hands. Then you will know which likely hands they are in. Or possibly could be in that is. Rarely when you do this the opponents will show no trump and well that certainly makes things a lot easier.

This makes things easier now to follow and to play. You want to set up trick taking opportunities with your holdings by leading either the Ace of club if clubs was not lead or trumped initially. Thats your first option. If it was played. Then you lead as follows for each hand below after getting the lead back from the send low from S2:


JS 10S + AC QH 9H

9H lead back with the 10s and Queen of hearts and a diamond void.

JS QS + AC QH 9H
same llead as above

JS 10S + AC QD 9D
9d lead back with the 10s and Queen of diamonds with a heart void.

JS QS + AC QD 9D
9d lead back with the Qs and the Queen of diamonds with a heart void.


Now if you have thrown off/slough on a first trick lead of a diamond say the 9hearts the lead will be as follows:

JS 10S + AC QH 9H
Ac lead back with the 10s and Queen of hearts and dia/club void for later tricks.

JS QS + AC QH 9H
Ac lead back with the QS and Queen of hearts w/ dia/club void for later tricks.

JS 10S + AC QD 9D
Ac lead, 10s with a strong possibility of Queen dia boss and several voids for later.

JS QS + AC QD 9D
Ac lead, Qs with a strong possibility of a QD boss and several voids for later.

I can do this for a diamonds lead but the similarities are apparent and one can deduce the similar logic and play that will ensue just from what I've typed above. Much of it will be the same.

Regarding Js/Jc and Js/As scenario's although daunting. It's not the end all and you still need those seats with those hands to play properly. Many times mistakes are made and the making team still get's their point. With that said. I can not game plan or show you what might happen because now we are giving the opponents cards that where originally in makers hand. We don't know what would be in Dealers hand and what they would be ordering up with because the variation in styles is vast on what one's criteria is to order at S4. This would also play into how one would lead back and what the expectations between S4 and S2 are. If its a random partner then those expectations should be ascertained at the soonest possibility with how they have been playing. So when you have the unknown's. I've adopted the mentality they play optimally until proven other wise. You can play the converse and say. Expect the worse and play accordingly until they prove otherwise. I would not fault anyone for taking that line on an unknown player.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 27, 2022 9:49 am

You moved the Goal Posts and your statement here makes no sense at all:

A low club is led, and Dealer has AC. Your partner just trumped and destroyed any chance of winning the club. Secondly, the dealer has 2 trumps 47% of the time! Is that SMALL in your world? Two trumps is my Post - THAT IS THE HAND, not what you said. Of course if the dealer had three trumps but you changed my Post.

IRISH

You said, "With the four hands displayed. Trump High send low will at bare min.(most of the time) establish Five trump WRONG MOVED THE GOAL POST! !, possibly 6 trump and that leaves 2 or 1 trump OBVIOUSLY YOUR ARE CONFUSED ABOUT THIS - 47% DEALER HAS ONE OTHER TRUMP + AN ACE! left and if they are all out meaning in players hands. Then you will know which likely hands they are in. Or possibly could be in that is. Rarely when you do this the opponents will show no trump and well that certainly makes things a lot easier. IF IT'S "RARELY", THEN WHY ARE YOU TRUMPING HIGH?

This makes things easier now to follow and to play. You want to set up trick taking opportunities with your holdings by leading either the Ace of club BUT CLUBS WAS LED - MOVED THE GOAL POSTS. if clubs was not lead or trumped initially. Thats your first option. If it was played. Then you lead as follows for each hand below after getting the lead back from the send low from S2:

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Mar 27, 2022 7:48 pm

I didn't move any goal posts. I answered for every conceivable lead. With the exception of diamonds. It was inferred if people followed what I was saying.

I explained how many trumps could possibly remain after trump high send low with you 4 hand scenarios.

I show in the first 1 that after a trump of a club lead and a lead back of trump taken by dealer with the right(assumed). That the lead back from s4 is now the 9d. It promotes possibly the Qd. You still have a heart void.

As I type this I didn't consider you wanted all 4 hands with the club lead. I'm at work and I've been typing little by little on this post. However what I said about trump remains the same. Many of the leads will be similar in nature but understanding who has trump, what's been played in trump will be a benefit in further leads, play, roughs and sloughing when continuing with this/these hands.

I'll get to fixing it up right after work.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Mar 27, 2022 8:57 pm

You in fact changed the Hand and the Simulation Ray did. That was the discussion not the whole universe of hands that S4 might have. The Hand: Club was always led and S2 had the option of sloughing KH or trumping KS and leading 9S. All other 18 cards were randomly dealt. Only those hands that Dealer ordered the 10S. I pulled out those hands. I said 47 (actually 46.7% rounded to 47),that he only has 2 total trumps. 23.4% the dealer will turn it down. What other hands his simulator Passes on is Unknown to me. So I said 47% will be "weak hands" (actually somewhat less if he has the QS and no off suit ace).

However, since 23.4% of the hands he Passes the 47% of 76.6% now becomes somewhere around 60% Weak Hands. It is now a rare holding that the dealer has 2 trumps and probably an ACE and sometimes just the JS + 1. Now what is the best option - lead trump? And I placed it where the S4 had the AC and S2 trumped with KS and led 9S.

So spin your yarn as to what is the best option for S2 to help his partner under those scenario(s)?

IRISH

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:20 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:07 am
Just realize that when S2 trumps high - S3 has void and singleton AS or JC he would can over trump and would have trumped the Club trump anyway.

Then there are these hands JS up or not, S2 LEADS TRUMPS and dealer has:

JS 10S + AC QH 9H
9H lead back with the 10s and Queen of hearts and a diamond void.


JS QS + AC QH 9H
9H lead back with the Qs, QH and a diamond void.


JS 10S + AC QD 9D
9D lead w/ 10s and QD and a heart void left.


JS QS + AC QD 9D
9D lead w/ Qs and QD and a heart void left.



OR ANY TIME S1/S3 HAS:

JS/JC

OR S1 HAS:

JS/AS

Your F - - K - ed !
(among other combinations which can be problematic but not so much whenb NOT leading trump in all those if correctly played)!

And do you know what your euchre rate will be?

Irish
That is how I would play it based on what's been played so far and see how things develop. As I said before. With the four hands displayed. Trump High send low will at bare min.(most of the time) establish Five trump, possibly 6 trump and that leaves 2 or 1 trump left and if they are all out meaning in players hands. Then you will know which likely hands they could be in. Sometimes the opponents will show no trump and well that certainly makes things a lot easier for s4 and s2.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:32 am

Ed, thanks for posting how you would play. I agree how you laid it out on how to play those hands WHEN trumping high and leading low. I never forget this old timer who giving me advice on playing a contentious hand, and he said, "Sometimes I play it this way, and Sometimes I play it that way!"

However, that said and what you posted does not necessarily say leading trump is better than S2 sloughing the KH. Why because the Dealer would win the first trick with the AC (most of the time), and if the JS is led S2 has KS/10S with two voids. Without doing a large number of head to head hands, played each way to determine which is better, I say TBD. For me, it's not about arguing one way vs another because I have not drawh a conclusion even after doing numerous hands. Except that I can say and contend that the Simulator results as posted did not capture the true EV of sloughing the KH nor does your post.

Then there are ALL those other probably Weak hands (AS/10S + side ACE and others), even QS/10S + side ace guarding against Next loner where leading trump is detrimental to scoring a point. Of course, S2 seldom knows what his partner holds. I know for sure, sometimes leading trump is good and sometimes bad. Especially or mostly bad when the Dealer will win that 1st trick. The dealer best, knows how best to play his hand to make a point. It's contentious at best, and only with an open mind and a willingness to explore, testing the universe of 'holdings' should one draw conclusions. I have never with Euchre, left an open question such as this. It requires work and patience if one is interested to push boundaries to the edge of the abyss. This scenario is very frequent in Euchre and the correct answer also involves who is my partner, score & situation how best to be a good partner? With a conservative partner, sure, always trump and lead. With a partner who is an expert and orders with weak hands - I seriously doubt leading is best (Actually I am confident enough to say that in these type of scenarios not leading will out perform leading!)?

Tell me euchre is a simple game? Huh!

I will leave it at that!

IRISH

P.S. (March 31 added script)

I think I have figured out why the Simulator did not show a better result for Sloughing the KH. When trumping high and leading a low trump, that scenario is straight forward how the Simulator or any player should play the hand. The first two tricks are cast in stone. S2 trumps with the KS and leads trump - all have to follow suit. So that is obvious and the EV would be correct.

However, sloughing the KH scenario is not straight forward with WEAK HANDS (2 trumps + an ace (AC/AH/AD). From trick one, how to play the hand varies considerable. For example, suppose the Dealer won that trick with AC and has AS/10S and another Club, he could lead clubs again and it is extending his trumps. If he had the JS, he should lead it. Another example, S4 wins the trick with 10S and has a Heart (AS + AD). He should lead to S2 Heart void. (even when he has the JS). There are other examples that makes this complex, too complex for the Simulator as programmed to optimum advantage when the KH is sloughed. I suspect the Simulator Ray is or was programmed to always leads trump when he wins the first trick or ASAP. Its not straight forward but the programming if 9D or KH is sloughed is not Optimized and is almost the same. So how do I know this - I have done numerous hands. Even when S4 has 3 trumps, Sloughing the KH seldom will hurt S4 unless he has 10S/QS/AS & Diamond doubleton without an ace and one opponent has JS/JC. Even then if he has right off suit he makes his point. You have to know when to lead trump and when not to. Far more complex than trumping high and leading low. This hand is a great example that proves that it is not always about leading trump to make a point. The simulator cannot capture the complexities and variables a good euchre player might do. Thus, I contend how to play those weaker S4 holdings tips the scales with a much higher EV for sloughing the KH. I don't get the results posted for the KH slough. Sometimes you have to come in the back door and the Simulator does not know how to do that, IMO.

___________________________________

Ed said, "That is how I would play it based on what's been played so far and see how things develop. As I said before. With the four hands displayed. Trump High send low will at bare min.(most of the time) establish Five trump, possibly 6 trump and that leaves 2 or 1 trump left and if they are all out meaning in players hands. Then you will know which likely hands they could be in. Sometimes the opponents will show no trump and well that certainly makes things a lot easier for s4 and s2."

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